Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. And this week it’s all free! Below, check out his breakdown of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans game for Week 12.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
JAC -1.5, O/U 48.5
Pace: JAC: 27.7 sec/snap (24th), HOU: 26.0 sec/snap (7th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Calvin Ridley has lined up from the slot 17% of the time in Zay Jones’ three fully healthy games.
- He is averaging 9.0 targets, 6.0 receptions, 89.5 receiving yards and 20.3 PPR points in four games alongside Jones.
- In three starts for Dameon Pierce, Devin Singletary has played 81% of the snaps and handled 84% of the Texans’ rushing attempts.
- He is also averaging 23.3 touches per game.
- The Jaguars are allowing a 58.3% catch rate off post routes this season (eighth worst).
- Nico Collins ranks fifth in targets off post routes (10), making up 15.6% of his targets.
Quarterback
After posting consistent QB2 numbers all year long, Trevor Lawrence finally showcased his upside against the Titans last week, passing for 262 yards and two touchdowns, also rushing for two more touchdowns. Jacksonville focused more on getting Lawrence under center and rolling him out of the pocket in this game, which clearly made an impact. And as has been the case all year long, Lawrence has been much better when not under pressure. Unfortunately, the Texans pass rush has been good this season, sporting the league’s eighth-highest pressure rate (24.2%). And when under pressure this year, Lawrence is completing just 39.2% of his passes with three touchdowns and four interceptions. The Texans are, however, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers, while 71.4% of the yardage against them has come through the air, the seventh-highest rate. Lawrence is on the QB1/QB2 borderline here.
Running Back
Travis Etienne set season-lows in snap share (65%) and rush attempt share (41%) Sunday, though his numbers were much higher before the fourth quarter where he hardly played in a blowout. We have heard Doug Pederson state that the team has to be mindful of Etienne’s workload, so it wouldn’t shock me to see him lose some touches going forward. But still, Etienne is averaging 20.6 touches per game on the year and is a must-start running back each week. Houston has improved against the run this season, though they are allowing a lot of rushing scores. 54.5% of the touchdowns scored against the Texans have come on the ground this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Wide Receiver
I truly don’t know if there is a correlation here but anyone with Calvin Ridley on their fantasy team really wants Zay Jones on the field.
Ridley finally broke out Sunday, catching seven passes for 103 yards and a pair of touchdowns. In three full games alongside Jones, Ridley has finished as the WR1, WR6 and WR9 in fantasy. His routes are a bit different in those games, as the Jaguars are running more tight formations, which means Ridley simply isn’t forced to win outside in press man coverage, which is where he has struggled this season. Ridley has operated out of the slot 17% of the time with Jones active this season and while I don’t believe Ridley is an every-week WR1 when Jones is on the field, I do think it does help him. The Texans rank bottom-12 in use of man coverage this season, which bodes well for Ridley, who is averaging just 1.16 fantasy points per target against man coverage, but 2.14 against zone defenses. Ridley is a low-end WR2 with upside this week.
Christian Kirk, meanwhile, took a backseat last week, though it was good to see him still run a route on 89% of dropbacks with Jones back in the lineup. Kirk still leads the team with a 25% target share since Week 2 and provides a solid floor each and every week. Despite last week’s results, I am still ranking Kirk ahead of Ridley.
Tight End
We are entering Week 12 and still no touchdowns from Evan Engram. It has been frustrating, as Engram has yet to even see a target in the end zone through 11 weeks. He still presents a very strong floor most weeks, while running a route on 86% of dropbacks, a top-three rate among all tight ends this season. This is a good matchup for Engram, facing a Houston defense that is coughing up the third-most fantasy points (14.5), most receptions (6.5), most targets (8.6) and sixth-most receiving yards (58.3) per game to opposing tight ends.
Quarterback
It looked as if C.J. Stroud was on his way to another historic game Sunday, but he slowed down in the second half, ultimately finishing with 336 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Still, Stroud has eclipsed 300 passing yards in each of his last three games, as he’s been outstanding, especially throwing deep down the field. On the season, Stroud is completing 60.5% of his deep passes (2nd-best) for 759 yards (most) and seven touchdowns (most). He faces a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards on deep passes this season (652). The Jaguars have also been more of a pass funnel this season, as 74.5% of the yardage against them has come through the air, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Continue to start Stroud as a top-10 fantasy signal caller.
Running Back
As long as Dameon Pierce is sidelined, Devin Singletary is a must-start, top-15 fantasy running back. With Pierce out the last three games, Singletary has dominated this backfield, logging 81% of the snaps and handling 84% of the Texans’ rushing attempts. He is also averaging a healthy 23.3 touches per game during that span. And despite their explosive passing game, the Texans have actually posted the third-lowest early down pass rate on the season (47.2%). Pierce was limited in practice to end the week Friday, giving him a great chance of returning this week. If he is active, I’d guess we see a 60/40 split, likely in favor of Singletary, especially since he fits Bobby Slowik’s zone scheme a bit better. If Singletary is the lead running back again, he’s a must-start player. But if Pierce is active, Singletary becomes a bit of a risky flex.
Wide Receiver
Tank Dell’s fantastic rookie season continued Sunday. He caught 8-of-10 targets for 149 yards and a touchdown, giving him four touchdowns and 106.3 yards per game over the last three weeks. Dell has developed quite the rapport with Stroud and is a rock-solid WR2, along with Nico Collins, who returned last week, catching seven passes for 65 yards on 11 targets. Collins has an intriguing matchup, facing a Jacksonville pass defense that is allowing a 58.3% catch rate off post routes this season, the eighth-highest rate in the league. Collins, meanwhile, ranks fifth in the league with 10 targets off post routes, making up almost 16% of his total targets this year. Collins and Dell are both top-20 fantasy wideouts for me this weekend.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz only saw three targets last week, but he found the end zone, giving him five touchdowns since Week 4. It is possible his targets remain much lower, especially if Houston’s wide receivers are all finally healthy for once, but his route participation continues to remain in the 80-83% range. He remains a borderline top-10 tight end against the Jaguars.
