Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. And this week it’s all free! Below, check out his breakdown of the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings game for Week 12.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
MIN -3.5, O/U 43
Pace: CHI: 29.1 sec/snap (30th), MIN: 26.1 sec/snap (9th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- The Bears are allowing the seventh-fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.26).
- The Vikings run game is averaging 1.16 yards before contact per attempt, the second-lowest rate in the league.
- Joshua Dobbs has targeted the tight end position 33% of the time in his starts this season.
- Jordan Addison has run a route on 93% of dropbacks since Justin Jefferson has been sidelined.
Quarterback
Justin Fields made his return last week and finished as the QB8 in fantasy, throwing for 169 yards and a touchdown, while rushing 18 (!) times for 104 yards. Since Week 3, Fields has handled 25% of Chicago’s designed rushing attempts, including a whopping 33% just last week. There is so much upside, as Fields can legitimately rush for 100 yards any given week. And when he throws the football, a high percentage of his passes are going down the field, as 15.7% of his pass attempts this season have traveled 20-plus yards, the fourth-highest rate in football. Fields will now face one of the most improved defensive units in all of football this season in Minnesota. Against the blitz this year, Fields is completing just over 58% of his passes, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and throwing three touchdowns to two interceptions. He’s a low-end QB1 with top-five weekly upside.
Running Back
Khalil Herbert returned last week, but Chicago suffered a new injury to their backfield after D’Onta Foreman left with an ankle sprain. He was limited on Friday, so we’ll see if he suits up on Sunday. The Bears used both Herbert and Roschon Johnson once Foreman left last week, as Herbert played 20 snaps to Johnson’s 16. If Foreman is ruled out, Herbert becomes a very strong flex play given the volume he should see, but I’d hesitate to have him in the RB2 range, simply because this could be the time of the year where the Bears give more opportunities to the rookie.
Wide Receiver
With Fields returning last week, so did DJ Moore’s fantasy upside. Moore caught 7-of-9 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown against the Lions, connecting with Fields on a beautiful 39-yard touchdown. We continue to see a much higher aDOT for Moore when Fields is under center, as he is flirting with 15 yards, compared to about eight or nine yards with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. Against the blitz this season, Moore is sporting a healthy 27.2% target share, while Minnesota is sending the blitz 47.4% of the time, easily the highest rate in the NFL. He is also averaging nearly 3.50 yards per route run against the blitz. Moore is a top-15 wide receiver for me here.
Tight End
Cole Kmet remains on the TE1/TE2 borderline, though probably closer to the TE1 range. He is a top-eight tight end in fantasy points per game on the season and faces a Minnesota defense that is slightly above league average against opposing tight ends on the year.
Quarterback
Joshua Dobbs finished as the QB14 last Sunday night, giving him finishes of QB5, QB3 and QB14 in three games with the Vikings. And over the course of the season, Dobbs has provided a relatively high floor due to his rushing, averaging 6.4 rushing attempts and 35.4 rushing yards per game. He has rushed for at least 40 yards in 7 of 11 games, while rushing for a touchdown in each of his last five games. Dobbs is a high-floor QB2 with QB1 upside, especially against a Bears pass defense that is allowing the sixth-highest completion rate (68.4%) and third-highest passing touchdown rate (5.5%) in football.
Running Back
Alexander Mattison left Week 10’s game with a concussion but was able to play in Week 11 against the Broncos. He played 64% of the snaps and handled 58% of the rushing attempts, touching the ball 19 times for 80 yards. Mattison still hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown this year and gets a tough matchup with the Bears. Chicago is allowing the seventh-fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.26), while Minnesota’s offense is averaging 1.16 yards before contact per attempt, the second-lowest rate in the league. Just 24.4% of the yards gained against the Bears this season have come on the ground, the second-lowest rate in football. Mattison is best trusted as a flex option this week, especially with Ty Chandler playing 30-35% of the snaps and handling 10-12 touches.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson could return this week, but the vibes are that with Minnesota’s Week 13 bye, he’ll sit out one more game. If that is the case, Jordan Addison will be a WR2/WR3 once again, though his target share hasn’t quite been the same as of late. Still, since Week 7 (Jefferson’s first game sidelined), Addison has run a route on 93% of dropbacks, while sporting a 21% target share during that span.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson is a must-start tight end. Since Week 7, he has a 31% target share, while seeing 35% of the targets in the three games since Dobbs joined the team. Dobbs has targeted the tight end position about 33% of the time in his starts over the course of the season, and now Hockenson gets to face a Chicago pass defense that is coughing up the seventh-most receptions (5.7) per game to opposing tight ends this year.
