Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. And this week it’s all free! Below, check out his breakdown of the Carolina Panthers and Tennessee Titans game for Week 12.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Carolina Panthers @ Tennessee Titans
TEN -3.5, O/U 37
Pace: CAR: 28.3 sec/snap (28th), TEN: 30.3 sec/snap (32nd)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Adam Thielen is 12th in the league in first-read targets (76).
- Derrick Henry is averaging 25.7 touches and 19.7 PPR points in three games Tennessee has won by at least three points this season.
- 11.9% of the runs against the Panthers have gained 10-plus yards, the ninth-highest rate in football.
- They are also allowing 2.53 yards after contact per rush, the fourth most in football.
Quarterback
Bryce Young has not been very fantasy relevant throughout his rookie season, and although Tennessee is a vulnerable pass defense, I don’t expect that to change Sunday. Young is averaging just 0.29 fantasy points per dropback, the fewest among all signal callers this season. His highest fantasy finish this year has been QB9, his only finish inside the top-16. Young has been outside the top-20 quarterbacks six different times this season. This is going to be a slow-paced game, as both teams rank bottom-five in pace of play this season.
Running Back
I’d look elsewhere at running back if possible this week. Chuba Hubbard is still operating as the lead running back — since Week 6, he has played 61% of the snaps, handled 66% of the rush attempts and is averaging 16 touches per game. During that same span, Hubbard is just 37th among all running backs in fantasy points per snap (0.24), while averaging 3.7 yards per attempt and just 0.19 avoided tackles per rush. Tennessee’s run defense hasn’t been as good this season, especially as of late, but Hubbard is nothing more than a desperation flex option this week.
Wide Receiver
Per usual, the only player from Carolina that you have any sort of confidence in starting is Adam Thielen. The veteran has been the focal point of this passing attack, sporting a 29% target share on the season, while his 76 first-read targets are tied for 12th in all of football. It feels like any small success Carolina might have on offense in this game will come from Thielen, as the Titans are coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. They actually have been about league average at defending the slot, and much worse against wideouts on the boundary, while Thielen operates from the slot 70.4% of the time. The Titans are allowing 14.0 PPR points per game to opposing wideouts on the left side of the formation (4th-most), which could make Jonathan Mingo an interesting deep league option. But still, it is mostly Thielen from Carolina.
Tight End
Tommy Tremble continues to play more and see more opportunities. And with Hayden Hurst sidelined last week, Tremble ran a route on a season-high 68% of dropbacks, while scoring a touchdown. If Hurst is out again, Tremble will be on the field plenty, but tight end is actually relatively deep. You can find better options elsewhere.
Quarterback
As you’d expect, the Titans remain a run-centric offense. Even last week in a game Tennessee lost 34-14, Will Levis attempted just 17 passes. Since having a stellar NFL debut back in Week 8, Levis has scored about 30 total fantasy points since, averaging 0.29 fantasy points per dropback during that span. This definitely doesn’t feel like a game where Levis will drop back to pass 30 times, as opponents are averaging just 29.4 pass attempts per game against the Panthers, the second fewest in football.
Running Back
More than ever, Derrick Henry has been pretty gamescript-dependent this season. With Tyjae Spears playing a lot, especially when the Titans fall behind, Henry is only averaging about 15 touches per game in losses this season, which obviously isn’t surprising. A running back touches the ball less when his team is losing? You don’t say. But Henry is not playing many third downs, as Spears has been on the field for 85.1% of third downs, one of the highest rates in the league. This, however, is a prime spot for a vintage Henry performance. Tennessee is favored by almost four points at home against Carolina. And in three games where the Titans have won by at least three points this season, Henry is averaging 25.7 touches and 19.7 PPR points per contest. The matchup, meanwhile, is elite. 11.9% of the runs against the Panthers have gained 10-plus yards, the 9th-highest rate in football. Meanwhile, Carolina is also allowing 2.53 yards after contact per rush, the fourth-most in football. Henry is still averaging nearly 2.40 yards after contact per attempt on the year. He’s a top-five running back for me this week.
Wide Receiver
In four games alongside Levis this season, DeAndre Hopkins is sporting a 26% target share, while drawing a target on 26% of his routes. Hopkins has scored four touchdowns during that stretch, while averaging 7.5 targets and nearly 17 PPR points per game. Hopkins is sporting a solid 26.7% target share against zone coverage this season, while averaging 2.15 points per target against the defense, compared to just 1.04 against man coverage. Carolina, meanwhile, plays zone coverage 67% of the time this year, the third-highest rate in the league. Hopkins is a low-end WR2 for me.
Tight End
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s highest fantasy finish this season? TE17. That’s just not going to get it done, especially in a run-first offense against a team that can’t stop the run. While I still believe in the upside as a player, Okonkwo has virtually zero floor in this offense.
