Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. And this week it’s all free! Below, check out his breakdown of the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers game for Week 12.
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers
BAL -3.5, O/U 47
Pace: BAL: 27.8 sec/snap (26th), LAC: 25.9 sec/snap (6th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Zay Flowers is third among all wideouts with 113 snaps in pre-snap motion.
- He’s been in pre-snap motion 19.2% of the time this season.
- Odell Beckham has a 26% targets per route run rate with Mark Andrews off the field this season.
- Gus Edwards is second in the NFL with 13 carries inside the five-yard line.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson is coming off his first multiple touchdown game since Week 7 last Thursday, throwing for 264 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed for 54 yards, giving him 9.2 rushing attempts and 48.6 rushing yards per game on the season. Jackson will be without Mark Andrews for the rest of the year, but at least for this week, I’m not too worried about that. This Chargers defense is so bad, coughing up a league-high 8.1 yards per pass attempt, as well as a 68.1% completion rate and 11.9 yards per completion. Already ranking 25th in pressure rate on the season (18.8%), the Chargers will now be without Joey Bosa. This defense is also allowing 2.19 points per drive, the fifth-most in football, and Jordan Love just torched Los Angeles to the tune of 322 yards and two touchdowns last week.
Running Back
Gus Edwards scored two more touchdowns last week, giving him nine over his last five games. Edwards is now tied for second in the league with 13 carries from inside the five-yard line this season, while the Ravens are running the football 64.1% of the time when inside the red zone, the second-highest rate in the league. The volume isn’t elite, while Edwards’ usage in the passing game has always been underwhelming, so you really are banking on a touchdown from him. But the Ravens should be able to move the ball up and down the field against this defense that is allowing 6.4 plays per drive this year, the second-most in football. Edwards is a touchdown-or-bust RB2/RB3, while Keaton Mitchell is a low-floor, high-ceiling flex play. Last week, Mitchell played a season-high 37% of the snaps, touching the ball nine times for 41 yards.
Wide Receiver
Zay Flowers should have had a long touchdown last week, but it was taken away due to an atrocious holding call. Flowers should lead the Ravens in targets going forward with Andrews sidelined. In the one game Andrews has missed this season, Flowers caught 9-of-10 targets for 78 yards, as the Ravens continue to move him all over the formation. He ranks third among all wideouts with 113 snaps in pre-snap motion, while Flowers has been in pre-snap motion 19.2% of the time this season. After returning to practice in full to end the week, I’d imagine Flowers will be good to go on Sunday. Assuming he is, the rookie is a low-end WR2 for me.
I also really like Odell Beckham if he plays. He has been dealing with a shoulder injury and is listed as questionable for this game. Beckham has 100 yards or a touchdown in three straight games, and since Week 6, he ranks eighth in the league with five end-zone targets. With Andrews off the field this season, Beckham has also been targeted on a healthy 26% of his routes. Against a Chargers defense that is allowing a league-worst 8.1 yards per attempt, there could be opportunities for splash plays down the field here.
Tight End
With Andrews sidelined, Isaiah Likely will take over as the starting tight end for the Ravens. He didn’t get it done in his lone start for Andrews back in Week 1, catching just one pass for four yards. However, Likely played 72% of the snaps and ran a route on 77% of dropbacks in that game, so the opportunity was certainly there. In three games without Andrews since the 2021 season, Likely is averaging 6.3 targets, 3.3 receptions, 43.7 yards and 10 PPR points per game. He’ll be on the low-end TE1 radar against a Chargers defense that is allowing the second-most fantasy points (14.7) and receiving yards (67.5) per game to opposing tight ends on the year.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert continues to do all he can.
Last week, he threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns, but it would have been a much better game if it weren’t for a handful of awful drops. Herbert is closer to QB10 than QB5 for me this week, as his pass-catching options are suddenly extremely volatile, while the Ravens have been an elite pass defense this season, surrendering the fewest yards per pass attempt (5.5) and lowest passing touchdown rate (2.2%) in the league.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler didn’t look 100% last week, ultimately rushing for 64 yards on 10 carries, while losing a fumble. Since returning from his ankle injury in Week 6, Ekeler has played 68% of the snaps, handled 67% of the Chargers’ total rush attempts and is averaging 17.6 touches per game. He should continue to see plenty of work in the passing game, sporting a 15% target share during that span, while the Baltimore run defense is a lot less scary than their pass defense.
Wide Receiver
I’m not chasing the secondary wide receivers from the Chargers. You are starting Keenan Allen and that is it. Allen has a 32% target share this season, while drawing a target on a healthy 27% of his routes. Allen has double-digit targets in six different games this year, averaging just over 11 targets per game.
Tight End
Gerald Everett missed last week’s game with a chest injury, which led to Donald Parham running a route on a season-high 68% of dropbacks. It resulted in a respectable four catches for 57 yards, while he left some points on the field by dropping some passes. Everett practiced in full to end the week, likely signaling his return. If he is active, both tight ends are risky TE2 options against a Baltimore defense that ranks top-10 against tight ends on the season.
