The Read Option, Week 1: Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants game for Week 1.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

Total: 45.5, DAL -3
Pace: DAL: 26.6 sec/snap (6th), NYG: 27.7 sec/snap (15th)

FTN Data Breakdown

• Daniel Jones targeted go routes just 3.5% of the time last year, the lowest rate in football.
• 4.9% of his pass attempts traveled 20-plus yards down the field, the second-lowest rate.
• The Giants ran read-option a healthy 17.3% of the time last season, the second-highest rate in the NFL behind only the Philadelphia Eagles.
• Since 2021, Dallas has averaged 26.0 seconds per snap, the second-fastest pace in the league during that span.
• They have also run no-huddle at the fifth-highest rate during that stretch (13.9%).
• CeeDee Lamb led all WRs in target share against the blitz at 41.8%.
• The Giants blitzed at the highest rate in football last season (39.7%).

Quarterback

Dak Prescott’s 2022 campaign certainly wasn’t his best. He missed five games but still led the league with 15 interceptions, ranked 11th in fantasy points per dropback (0.50) and 13th in fantasy points per game (17.8). The offense will look a bit different with Mike McCarthy calling plays, as Dallas will try to set up more yards after the catch in their offense this season, which can only help Prescott. We’ll see how much the Cowboys slow the pace down with McCarthy, too. Under Kellen Moore, Dallas played at a blistering pace, averaging 26.0 seconds per snap since 2021, the second-fastest pace during that span. This is an interesting matchup for Prescott, facing an aggressive Giants defense that blitzed at the highest rate in the league a season ago (39.7%). Prescott was slightly above average against the blitz last year and threw for 261 yards and a pair of touchdowns in his lone start against the Giants in 2022. He isn’t a top-12 quarterback for me in Week 1, but Prescott is a high-floor signal caller to start the year.

Running Back

It is officially Tony Pollard season. After years of fantasy fans begging the Cowboys to fully unleash Pollard, it appears that time has come. Ezekiel Elliott is gone, leaving Pollard to lead the Cowboys backfield. During the last two years, Pollard has averaged 6.2 and 5.9 yards per touch, good for second and fifth among qualified running backs. That efficiency clearly continued last year, as Pollard finished 21st among running backs in touches but 15th in rushing yards (1,007), third in rushes of 15-plus yards (17), sixth in fantasy points per snap (0.44) and first in yards after contact per attempt (3.8). His 5.1 yards per carry rank third in all of football since entering the NFL in 2019 and despite seeing 60 more carries this past season, Pollard remained one of the best running backs in the league. The only really frustrating aspect last season was Pollard’s usage at the goal line, but that appears likely to change entering the 2023 campaign. Though clearly not the player he once was, Elliott still operated as Dallas’ clear short-yardage running back. That led to 12 rushing touchdowns to Pollard’s nine, and if that role solely belonged to Pollard, fantasy’s RB9 could have easily entered the top-five. Last season, Elliott finished with 16 carries from inside the five-yard line, the third-most in all of football. He handled nearly 70% of the Cowboys’ carries from that part of the field, converting nine of those 16 attempts into touchdowns. Pollard, meanwhile, only had six carries from inside the 5-yard line. 

As for the matchup, well, it is awesome. The Giants surrendered the sixth-most rushing yards per game in 2022 (144.2), while only the Chargers coughed up more yards per attempt on the ground (5.2). 16.8% of the runs against the Giants gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in all of football, while only the Texans were responsible for more 100-yard games against them than New York (13). Pollard should get off to a very, very explosive start Sunday night.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb’s third NFL season was his true breakout, as the star wideout hauled in 107 passes for 1,359 yards and nine touchdowns. Lamb finished top-seven in both target share (28%) and targets per route run (28%), while his 131 first-read targets were fourth in football. Lamb lined up all over the formation, which is something I hope continues with Kellen Moore gone, however, I don’t expect him to lead the league in both routes (36) and targets (36) off pre-snap motion again. Still, Lamb is the focal point of this passing game and one of the best young wideouts in the game. This matchup is also advantageous for him, as Lamb led all wide receivers with a massive 41.8% target share against the blitz last season. And as we discussed, no team blitzed more than Don Martindale and the Giants last year (39.7%). Adoree’ Jackson shadowed Lamb on 65% of his routes in Week 3 of last season, but Lamb got him for six catches, 57 yards and a score. And when Lamb isn’t matched up against Jackson, he’ll see man coverage against rookies Deonte Banks or Tre Hawkins. Lamb is an elite play against his division rival.

The Cowboys traded for veteran Brandin Cooks this offseason, who spent the last few seasons in Houston. At 29 years old, Cooks should slide right behind Lamb as the No. 2 option in this Cowboys passing game and has finished as a top-25 fantasy wide receiver in all but two of his seasons. He gets the same favorable matchup as Lamb and settles in as a viable WR3 play in his debut game with the Cowboys. Finally, Michael Gallup is nothing more than a DFS play but it is worth noting that he was much more productive against man coverage last season than zone. Against man, Gallup saw a target share of 18%, while averaging 1.32 fantasy points per target. However, those rates dropped to 10.8% and 0.95 against zone coverage.

Tight End

Dallas really doesn’t have a must-start tight end on their roster right now. Jake Ferguson would be the player I would have the most interest in, though don’t expect the same usage we saw from Dalton Schultz. The matchup is favorable, as the Giants allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends last year (13.2), but you’d have to be pretty desperate to consider a Cowboys tight end in Week 1.

Quarterback

He may have only thrown 15 touchdown passes last year, but 708 rushing yards and seven touchdowns propelled Daniel Jones to a QB9 finish in fantasy. Jones averaged a healthy 0.52 fantasy points per dropback, while finishing as a QB1 seven weeks. The floor was very high for Jones, who averaged 7.5 carries and just over 44 rushing yards per game last year. He also rushed for at least 25 yards in 11 of 16 games. On the flip side, Jones did fail to reach the 200 passing-yard mark in 10 games. Entering the 2023 campaign, Jones should once again see 100-plus rushing attempts, while the supporting cast around him is improved. The Giants traded for Darren Waller, drafted Jalin Hyatt and John Michael Schmitz, and will hopefully have Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson healthy. 

Jones has a tough Week 1 matchup, facing a Dallas defense that led the league in pressure rate a season ago at 25.6%. In his two matchups with the Cowboys last year, Jones was under pressure on 55.1% and 48.7% of his dropbacks, while scoring just one total touchdown in those games. He should still provide a solid floor with his rushing production, as Jones finished the season fifth among all quarterbacks in designed rush attempts with 65, while averaging 7.5 carries and a healthy 44.3 rushing yards per game. He also had seven rush attempts from inside the 5-yard line, handling nearly 30% of New York’s carries from that part of the field. According to FTN Data, the Giants ran read-option a healthy 17.3% of the time last season, the second-highest rate in the NFL behind only the Philadelphia Eagles. But given the tough matchup, he is more of a mid-range QB2 for me here.

Running Back

Saquon Barkley put together a strong bounceback campaign in 2022. He stayed healthy and dominated the touches, as Barkley finished second among running backs in snap share (79.2%) and third in opportunity share (80.1%). Admittedly, the efficiency wasn’t outstanding, but the volume made up for it, as Barkley averaged a strong 22 touches per game. He was also targeted on 24% of his routes, while running a route on around 60% of dropbacks, a top-three rate among all running backs. We did see Barkley slow down a bit down the stretch of the season, but the volume isn’t going anywhere and he remains the focal point of an improved Giants offense. Last season, you could certainly run on the Cowboys, as 13.3% of the runs against them gained 10-plus yards, the seventh-highest rate in football. You are starting Barkley, obviously. 

Wide Receiver

I won’t be starting any wide receivers from the Giants, at least not to open the season. Sterling Shepard, Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt and Wan’Dale Robinson (if healthy) will all have a role. When Shepard is on the field, he earns targets, averaging 7.3 per game for his career. And since 2019, Shepard has played 26 games alongside Daniel Jones, averaging 5.7 receptions, 8.1 targets and 14.3 PPR points per contest. Dallas upgraded their secondary this offseason, adding Stephon Gilmore, giving them one of the top duos in the league with Trevon Diggs. I’m taking a wait-and-see approach with the Giants wideouts, especially since the focal point of the passing game is at tight end.

Tight End

Darren Waller joins the Giants after spending the last five seasons with the Raiders. We obviously saw Waller emerge as an elite fantasy tight end in 2019 and 2020 but has had trouble staying on the field over the last two seasons. During that span, Waller has missed 14 games, including eight this past season. At 31 years old, there are some questions regarding Waller’s possible decline but if the preseason is any indication, the veteran tight end is going to dominate the targets in New York.