The Fantasy Pessimist: How Could the Top Fantasy WRs of 2024 Fail?

Hope springs eternal ahead of the new fantasy season. More and more fantasy gamers are drafting as we get close to training camp, and assuredly, everybody loves their team.

However, fantasy would be way less fun if every player in the NFL hit their ceiling outcome. Part of the strategy with fantasy isn’t just hitting on the best players, but it is finding a way to avoid the landmines that will derail your season. 

Here at FTN Fantasy, we understand that drafting isn’t always sunshine and rainbows. Plenty of players we value highly in fantasy drafts can and will disappoint us next season. So far we have broken down the ways to fail at the quarterback and running back positions. This week we will look at the wide receivers and tight ends. Check out how the top-10 wide receivers in fantasy drafts are going to fail you (and how realistic that is) below.

Check out other parts of the series: QB | RB | TE

2024 Fantasy Pessimist: Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

CeeDee Lamb dominated the NFL last season, catching 135 of 181 targets for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns. Lamb truly developed as an inside/outside threat at the receiver position, finishing sixth among wide receivers in routes run with 606. His 508 slot snaps were fourth among wide receivers and allowed the Cowboys to get him into frequently advantageous matchups.

Lamb’s statistical explosion was highly beneficial for fantasy. Lamb finished as the WR1 in PPR scoring formats with 403.2 total points and 23.7 fantasy points per game. Lamb had fewer games with under 15.0 points scored (4) than he did with weeks of over 30.0 fantasy points scored (5). Unsurprisingly, Lamb is being drafted as the WR1 in fantasy this season, usually taken with the first or second overall pick in fantasy drafts. 

However, even with that dominance, there is still a chance the Lamb can fall short of hitting the WR1 overall outcome in fantasy for the second straight season. Lamb commanded a 29.2% target share last season in Dallas’ pass-happy offense. Since 2021, there have been just seven players who have surpassed a 29% target share. Only two players (Cooper Kupp in 2021 and 2022 and Davante Adams in 2021 and 2023) have been able to hit that mark more than once in the past three seasons. Dallas was eighth in pass attempts last season (614) but sixth in pass rate over expectation (2.7%). 

We expect the Cowboys defense to be among the best in the league, especially if Trevon Diggs can recover from his torn ACL by the start of the season. The Cowboys could find themselves in plenty of positive gamescripts, especially with Ezekiel Elliott returning to the backfield to grind out four-yard runs. 

Risk Level — Low

The Cowboys added almost nothing to their passing attack this offseason, leaving Lamb competing with Brandin Cooks, Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert for targets next season. Lamb should have no problem once again dominating targets in this offense and is essentially matchup proof given Dallas’ ability to move him into the slot to generate the best matchups. There is always a chance that somebody can surpass him as the WR1 overall given the wide receiver talent in the NFL, but a top-three finish seems almost assured if Lamb is healthy. 

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Shockingly, Tyreek Hill has taken his game to the next level since being traded to Miami from Kansas City before the 2022 season. In two seasons with the Dolphins, Hill is averaging 170.5 targets, 119 receptions and 1,754.5 receiving yards and has scored 20 touchdowns. Hill has back-to-back finishes as the WR2 in total points and has been the WR3 and WR2 in fantasy points per game over his two seasons with Miami. His playstyle, combined with Mike McDaniel’s play-calling, has been gold for fantasy.

Hill was already an outlier coming into the 2023 season, becoming the first wide receiver to post consecutive 1,700-yard seasons in the history of the NFL.

Before Hill, the receivers on this list averaged nearly a 500-yard decrease (495.2) the next season. Yes, Hill has already bucked this trend once, but he will also enter 2024 as a 30-year-old wide receiver. The only player on this list above who was older was Jerry Rice, the greatest wide receiver of all time. 

Hill hasn’t shown any effects of age to this point, but at some point, the other shoe will drop. Hill led the NFL last season with an unsustainable 33.7% target share and is competing with a young receiver who is just entering the prime of his career (Jaylen Waddle). Hill has already beaten history once, betting on him to do it a second time is a hard pill to swallow.  

Risk Level — Low

Hill’s absurd target share in 2023 is even more impressive considering he finished 42nd in routes run (464) and 55th in average target depth (10.8). Sure, a league-leading 3.88 yards per route run is unsustainable, but Hill has been an outlier since entering the league. According to PlayerProfiler, Hill had the best route win rate in 2023 (65.9%) and the 15th-best win rate versus man coverage (44.9%). Even if Hill becomes less efficient, he can still see enough work in the passing attack by running more routes and getting more opportunities. 

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Ja’Marr Chase has developed into a fantastic wide receiver, but he’s never been able to match the ridiculous production from his 2021 rookie season (128 targets, 81 receptions, 1,455 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns). Despite seeing his targets and receptions increase over his first three seasons, Chase hasn’t been able to produce the same yardage or touchdown production he did as a rookie (in his defense, he produced 1,046 yards in 12 games in 2022).

Chase has been relatively steady as a fantasy producer since entering the NFL. He’s never finished as a top-five receiver in fantasy points per game, but he’s also never finished outside of the top-12 either. He has started his career with three straight 16-plus-point fantasy seasons. The veteran receiver is coming off his worst finish (WR12 in points per game), which shouldn’t be surprising considering Jake Browning started seven games after Joe Burrow was lost for the season with a thumb injury in Week 10. 

Still, Chase is currently coming off the board as the WR4 even though he’s never once finished that high as a fantasy producer. The path to failure for Chase is the fact that he largely remains in the same offense that has shown the ability to spread the ball around to weapons throughout the offense. Despite his role as the top receiver in the Bengals passing attack, Chase has just one career season (2022) with a top-12 target share in the NFL. With teams shifting to more two-high safeties, Chase saw his average depth of target drop to 82nd among wide receivers in 2023 (8.4 yards) and his yards per route run drop to a career-low 2.06. 

Chase will once again be competing with Tee Higgins for targets, and Cincinnati added Jermaine Burton in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Burton won’t have a full-time role on offense but is a clear talent upgrade over former slot-only receiver Tyler Boyd. Teams will continue to key in on Chase in the passing attack, but Burrow has shown that he doesn’t need to lock on to his top receiver to produce. 

Risk Level — Low

Yes, the declining yards per route run and average depth of target are far from ideal for Chase, but a lot of that can be linked to the loss of Burrow in 2023. Chase continues to see his targets climb season over season and could be utilized more in the slot next season with Boyd moving on in free agency. The 2024 campaign can be a career-best year for Chase, even with improved target competition. 

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson started his career by averaging 158.7 targets, 108.0 receptions, 1,608.3 receiving yards and 8.3 touchdowns in his first three seasons before suffering an injury that limited him to 10 games in 2023. Despite the injury, Jefferson finished the year with 100 targets, 68 receptions, 1,074 receiving yards and five touchdowns while catching passes from Kirk Cousins, Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall.

Jefferson was still productive during his stretch without Cousins (32 receptions on 47 targets for 503 yards) but found the end zone just twice over the final five games of the season. Now Jefferson will try to keep the Vikings offense afloat with either Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy under center. 

The path to failure for Jefferson lies in how effectively Darnold and McCarthy can execute Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly offense. On the surface, Jefferson was extremely productive with the rotating backup quarterbacks in 2023, finishing with 18.6 fantasy points per game from Weeks 14 to 18. That was a sharp decrease from the first five weeks of the season (21.8 points per game) with Cousins under center. Jefferson had just one game under 24.0 points with Cousins (the week he got injured) and had just two games over 16.0 fantasy points when he returned at the end of the year. 

Risk Level — Moderate

When you think of consistent, high-level play at the quarterback position, the name Sam Darnold probably doesn’t pop into your head. Darnold has just one season (minus his one 2023 start) with a completion percentage over 60%. His career 63-56 touchdown-to-interception ratio also doesn’t inspire confidence. Darnold was able to show a limited sample size of effective quarterback play during his six starts with the Panthers in 2022 (1,143 yards and seven touchdowns with three interceptions), but even that wasn’t enough to earn him a chance at starting in 2023.

If Darnold struggles, things may not be much better for 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy in his first season. McCarthy has plenty of tools and won a College Football National Championship at Michigan, but he did it in a low-volume passing offense. The rookie attempted just 713 passes during his collegiate career and never threw for over 3,000 yards or 22 touchdowns. 

Talent usually wins in fantasy, but the idea that the Vikings may be playing quarterback carousel with two subpar options in 2024 gives Jefferson several outlets to fail to hit ADP next season. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to be one of the more impressive young receivers in the NFL. St. Brown set career-highs across the board in 2023, finishing with 119 receptions on 164 targets for 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns. St. Brown continues to beat his draft capital (and general lack of athleticism) by dominating in the slot for the Lions. He was fifth in the NFL with a 47.3% slot rate in 2023. St. Brown was able to turn his high-volume role in the offense into a WR3 overall finish in fantasy (330.9 points) and a WR4 finish in PPR points per game (20.7). 

There is a chance though, that St. Brown sees less work in the passing game after his two primary competitors for targets in 2023 were both rookies. ADP suggests that the masses expect Jahmyr Gibbs (RB4) and Sam LaPorta (TE1) to see their roles grow in the offense after strong rookie seasons. Similarly, third-year receiver Jameson Williams hasn’t been able to put together a full season yet due to injuries and a gambling suspension. The Lions didn’t add much to their passing offense, but given the fact that they’ve invested heavily in the first two rounds of the draft in 2022 and 2023, they didn’t need to.

Any or all of Gibbs, LaPorta and Williams taking a step in development could lead to fewer targets for St. Brown, making his chance at hitting a WR5 or higher outcome a more difficult endeavor. 

Risk Level — Low

Truly, it feels like St. Brown is the safest fantasy wide receiver going in the first round of drafts. Detroit’s passing offense revolves around his ability to get open in the slot and dominate matchups. St. Brown finished third among wide receivers in red-zone targets last season (25) and was seventh in yards per route run (2.70). He also had a top-5 win rate against man coverage (50.2%) in 2023. All of these metrics signal that St. Brown should have little drop-off in 2024. 

Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

Puka Nacua was a revelation in both real and fantasy football in 2023. Nacua went from being a fifth-round rookie to producing the greatest rookie receiving season we have seen, catching 105 of his 160 targets for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns, leading him to a WR6 finish in PPR points per game (17.6).

Fantasy managers expect the same level of success from Nacua in 2024 given his WR6 price tag in fantasy drafts. However, there is still a significant risk that Nacua can fall short of that lofty mark in his second season. 

Last year, Nacua was able to carve out a significant role in the offense over the first four weeks of the season while Cooper Kupp worked through hamstring and ankle injuries. Even though Kupp only missed five total games, he was likely managing his way through injuries throughout the season. By all accounts, Kupp has had a healthy offseason and will come into 2024 fresh and ready to reclaim his role in the offense. A full season of Kupp undoubtedly means fewer opportunities for Nacua to thrive in 2024, even with a lack of competition in the passing attack.

Risk Level — Moderate

Yes, Nacua was still impressive with Kupp returning to the offense, but there was a clear decline in his production once the veteran was healthy enough to suit up for the Rams.

Kupp has struggled with health over his last two seasons (just 21 games played) but has quickly been reintegrated into the offense when healthy each time. If he starts the season healthy, then the expectation would be that Kupp operates in his typical role as the WR1 while Nacua operates as the second option. From Weeks 5-17 last year, Nacua averaged 15.7 fantasy points per game, which was good for WR12 in that span. That is a far cry from his finish as the WR6 that was buoyed by four weeks of early production.  

Is Nacua a safe pick given the lack of target competition and Kupp’s seemingly frequent injury issues? 

Sure. 

Do fantasy managers need to prepare for a chance that he finishes outside the top-10 wide receivers while being drafted as the WR6?

Absolutely. 

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

The first two years of fantasy production from Garrett Wilson have been extremely frustrating for managers. Wilson followed up his WR31 point-per-game finish as a rookie (12.7) with a WR33 finish in points per game (12.5) in his second season. Through two seasons, Wilson had caught just 178 of his 315 targets for 2,145 yards and seven touchdowns. Those aren’t the most impressive totals, but they become much more impressive when you remember that Wilson’s production has been tethered to Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle through his first two seasons.

Wilson was a popular pick in 2023 with Aaron Rodgers under center, but an Achilles injury four snaps into the season robbed us of that dream. 2024 brings hope back into focus with Rodgers ready to go and Wilson once again operating as the team’s top target.

However, that doesn’t mean that drafting Wilson is a risk-free move in fantasy. The Jets attempted to build up the team around Rodgers this offseason, adding Mike Williams in free agency and Malachi Corley in the draft. The team also invested heavily in their offensive line to try to avoid 2023’s mistakes again. The last time we saw a healthy Rodgers, he was leading a methodical Packers offense while throwing for just 3,695 yards and 26 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. Fine numbers, but hardly the kind of production that suggests a nuclear wide receiver season. 

Rodgers-led teams frequently finish near the bottom of the NFL in pace of play. And Rodgers is no slam dunk to return to MVP form after suffering a torn Achilles in his age-39 season. 

Risk Level — Moderate

Drafting Garrett Wilson as the WR7 represents taking a player at his absolute ceiling even though we have never seen that ceiling before. Yes, a lot of that involves factors that Wilson cannot control, but it is still a fact. Wilson has just three career top-12 weekly finishes in fantasy football, which all came his rookie season. This shows he does have the ability to hit a high ceiling in fantasy, but it has been hit few and far between to start his career.

Truly, we have seen good wide receivers produce regardless of their quarterback in the past, which is something Wilson has yet to do consistently. Wilson will be competing with actual NFL receivers for targets this season, which isn’t something we have been able to say in the past.

Wilson certainly enters 2024 with a top-five finish in his range of outcomes. However, there is also a chance that he takes a considerable leap in fantasy (around a WR15 finish) and still fails to hit the lofty standard that drafters have placed upon him this summer. 

Given his history and the fact that his production is tied to a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a major injury behind a better, but also injury-prone offensive line, it is hard to see Wilson as a sure thing to hit his current draft position.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals

Fantasy managers wasted no time escalating Marvin Harrison Jr. into the top-10 wide receivers being drafted after he landed with the Arizona Cardinals in 2024. Harrison walks into an offense that has a quarterback under center (Kyler Murray) who has shown that he can feed his WR1 throughout his career. Add in a lack of target competition outside of tight end Trey McBride, and you have the makings of a potential fantasy gold mine. 

Still, despite his talent and collegiate production (155 receptions for 2,613 yards and 31 touchdowns in three seasons), we have never seen a rookie wide receiver pushed this high in fantasy drafts before. To his credit, Harrison notably opted out of most of the pre-draft process to ensure that he was doing what was necessary to be ready for the grind of the NFL. That could pay dividends, or he could be like most rookies and hit a wall during the season. 

Drafting Harrison as the WR8 requires fantasy managers to trust that Harrison is truly the best rookie receiver to ever step on an NFL field. However, if Harrison is like almost every rookie that has come before him in fantasy (especially first-round rookies) then hitting a WR8 outcome will be extremely difficult, regardless of the team situation surrounding him. 

Risk Level — Moderate

Since 2010, there have been 14 wide receivers taken in the top 20 picks of the NFL draft. Below are their stats and fantasy finishes. 

Just two of the 14 players listed had a top-24 season as a rookie. Only one had a top-12 season. Sure, there are plenty of contextual factors that go into each player and past production from other players doesn’t indicate anything for Harrison’s talent, but it does show that there is a steep learning curve for even the best receivers entering the NFL as a rookie. It’s also worth noting that none of the players listed above were taken in the top 50 picks, much less in the first 14 picks of fantasy drafts.

Can Harrison. hit his ADP in 2024? Of course. Murray doesn’t have a ton of weapons at his disposal and has shown the ability to funnel targets to his best weapons in the passing game when healthy.

However, drafting Harrison as the WR8 in fantasy drafts ignores history, which tells us that most wide receivers need time to produce at an NFL level, regardless of how talented or productive they were in college.

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

There are a lot of parallels between Drake London and Garrett Wilson. Like Wilson, London has struggled to produce through his first two seasons thanks to poor quarterback play. Like Wilson, London is getting a big quarterback upgrade in the form of an old veteran who is coming off an Achilles injury. And like Wilson, London is being drafted at a ceiling (WR9) that we have never seen him sustain in fantasy before. 

Through his first two seasons, London has had a WR48 and WR44 finish in fantasy points per game and never finished with more than 11.0 fantasy points per game. Like Wilson, London has three top-12 finishes in his first two seasons, including a WR2 finish in Week 14 of 2023 (29.2 fantasy points). 

London’s ability to produce in a low-volume passing offense with bad quarterback play doesn’t necessarily mean that he can hit a WR9 or higher finish in 2024. For one, London has struggled to flash as a separator (1.33 yards per target, 80th in 2023) and against man coverage (29.8% win rate against man coverage, 87th in 2023). He also enters 2024 with a healthy Kyle Pitts and free agent acquisition Darnell Mooney. Both players have hit 1,000 receiving yards in their career, a feat that London hasn’t managed. 

This ranking also assumes that Kirk Cousins returns completely from the torn Achilles that ended his 2023 season. 

Risk Level — Moderate

Fantasy managers have elevated London in fantasy drafts based on what we think he can become with a new offensive environment. There is plenty of excitement in a new offense with an experienced, veteran quarterback who has shown the ability to elevate his weapons.

That said, we would need to see sustained production from London that he has never shown in the past. 

There were concerns about London’s ability to separate coming into the NFL that haven’t been completely alleviated. He also has legitimate target competition in the form of Pitts, Mooney and even Bijan Robinson in the backfield. We saw London get peppered with targets through his first two seasons, but that was competing against Pitts coming off a knee injury and a combination of Mack Hollins and Olamide Zaccheaus in his first two seasons. 

There is absolutely room for London to grow in terms of pure volume in a better offense. However, taking that and immediately escalating him over other established receivers across the NFL is a big bet to make, especially with a quarterback coming off a detrimental injury in his age-35 season. 

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

Chris Olave has been a very steady producer at wide receiver through his first two seasons. The third-year receiver is averaging 128.5 targets, 79.5 receptions and 1,082.5 receiving yards to start his career with nine touchdowns scored. Olave just missed finishing as a top-24 receiver in points per game as a rookie (13.2 PPG, WR27) before hitting the mark in his second season (14.5 PPG, WR20).

The Saints didn’t add anything of note to the wide receiver room this offseason, which has led Olave’s ADP to climb to the WR10 throughout the summer. It isn’t an unrealistic jump, we have seen Olave get better as time has gone on, so logically he should improve again in his third season.

However, one way that Olave can fail is if the Saints offense as a whole takes a step back after major losses along the offensive line during the 2024 offseason. 

New Orleans is potentially entering 2024 with three new starting offensive linemen assuming Ryan Ramczyk can’t begin the season due to chronic knee issues. New Orleans did draft a tackle in the first round of the draft (Taliese Fuaga), but he was known more as a devastating run blocker in college than a pass-protection technician. He will also be playing left tackle, a position that he didn’t play in college. 

Derek Carr has always struggled under pressure, and 2023 was no different. Carr finished 24th in the NFL in completion percentage while pressured (49%), throwing for 877 yards and two touchdowns with three interceptions on 181 pressured dropbacks. Carr may face even more pressure in 2024, which would mean inaccurate passes and checkdowns once again.

Risk Level — High

Drafting Olave as the WR10 in fantasy signals a belief that the Saints offense will be good enough to sustain that production in 2024. Given Carr’s struggles against pressure (and his willingness to check down to the running back or tight end in pressure situations), that is a tough bet to make.

Olave can continue to make incremental improvements as a fantasy player, and beating his WR20 season from 2023 is realistic, but expecting Olave to become a top-10 WR in fantasy in what should be a bad offense is a very hard pill to swallow.