Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It’s downer time around FTN Fantasy right now. Because the exciting part of fantasy football is dreaming of the upside. Maybe you have the hot rookie who can be Puka Nacua. Maybe you can spot the late-career breakout a la Raheem Mostert. That’s what we dream of. It’s one of the keys to the game.
But the other key to the game is avoiding the pitfalls. Drafting Austin Ekeler in 2023 or JuJu Smith-Schuster in 2019 might not have doomed your season, but it certainly made it way harder. You have to find the upside, but you also have to steer clear of the disasters.
So that’s what we’re going to look at. How could each of the top-drafted players at each position fail in 2024? What would it look like? And how likely is it?
(Unless there is a very specific reason not to do so, we’re ignoring injury risk here. It’s football. Everyone is a big injury risk. If your top pick gets hurt, well, that happens, good luck to you.)
Today: Quarterbacks
Check out other parts of the series: RB | WR | TE
2024 Fantasy Pessimist: Quarterback
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen has been the most reliable fantasy quarterback over the last four seasons, finishing as the QB1 overall three times and the QB2 overall in 2022. He has at least 24.0 fantasy points per game in every season since 2020 while averaging 4,385 passing yards, 34.3 passing touchdowns, 14.3 interceptions and adding 114.8 carries for 617.5 yards and nine touchdowns per season.
Allen feels too talented to fail in fantasy. So the question is, how can he fail in 2024?
Simply put, more will be put on Allen’s shoulders than ever before in 2024. Salary cap issues forced the Bills to jettison numerous key pieces this offseason, including receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis and starting center Mitch Morse. The talent coming in to replace those pieces (Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, Chase Claypool and Mack Hollins) isn’t nearly as reliable as the talent leaving.
Even with those pieces on the offense in 2023, Allen showed some concerning statistical dips. He threw his fewest touchdowns since 2019 (29) and the most interceptions in his career (18). Allen finished 21st among 43 qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage under pressure (49.4%) and tied for the second-most interceptions while under pressure (9). Allen was able to offset this in fantasy thanks to a career-high 15 rushing touchdowns.
The Bills offensive line is worse. Additionally, Allen will be working with a group of wide receivers he has little-to-no familiarity with outside of returning role players like Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid. The Bills also relied far more on the run last season after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, a trend that could continue as the team gets their new pieces acclimated in the passing offense.
Risk Level — Moderate
There are legitimate concerns about the offensive talent surrounding Allen next season. His usage as a runner went up once Brady took over play-calling duties (hence, the 15 rushing touchdowns), but the human body can only take so much contact, and Allen isn’t getting much younger. Allen should easily finish within the top five quarterbacks, but his streak of QB1 finishes may end in 2024.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts secured his second straight top-two finish at the quarterback position in total points in 2023 and his third consecutive season with 21.0 fantasy points per game. Hurts didn’t hit the same highs as a fantasy scorer last season as he did in 2022 (21.9 PPG vs. 25.6 points), but it didn’t matter much in the grand scheme of things compared to the rest of the position.
Hurts is once again coveted in fantasy football, going off the board as the QB2 in fantasy drafts just behind Josh Allen. However, he regressed as a passer in 2023. Hurts saw a decrease in completion percentage (65.4) touchdown rate (4.3%) and had as many interceptions (15) as the previous two seasons combined. Like Allen, Hurts was able to navigate a decrease in passing production with a career-best 15 rushing touchdowns.
Jason Kelce, the Eagles starting center, retired this offseason, which puts the effectiveness of the tush push in question going forward. The Eagles also brought in a true three-down running back this offseason in Saquon Barkley to handle the backfield. It isn’t a stretch to say that Barkley will be far better at punching the ball in the end zone than D’Andre Swift last season.
Risk Level — Moderate
24% of Hurts’ fantasy production in 2023 came from rushing touchdowns, mostly via the tush push. The Eagles will certainly continue to use that play, but they don’t necessarily need to with Barkley in the backfield. If Hurts can’t counter the loss of rushing touchdowns with an increase in passing touchdowns, it will be hard for him to finish as a top-two scorer again in fantasy.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs rode a strong defense and efficient offense to their second consecutive Super Bowl in 2023. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, it is unlikely that Mahomes had the same success pushing them to a fantasy championship.
Mahomes finished 2024 with a 67.2% completion percentage for 4,183 yards and 27 touchdowns with 14 interceptions. It was the first time since 2019 that Mahomes had fewer than 4,700 passing yards and 37 touchdowns. Efficiency in the NFL is great, but for fantasy, it manifested itself as a QB12 finish in fantasy points per game (18.4).
The Chiefs spent the offseason adding explosive elements to their passing attack, including Marquise Brown in free agency and Xavier Worthy in the first round of the draft. Banking on either of those players to recapture that magic of Tyreek Hill would be irresponsible considering he’s been as good (or better) since leaving the Chiefs. Add in an aging Travis Kelce and a possibly suspended Rashee Rice, and Mahomes could turn into an underneath passer once again.
Risk Level — Low
From top to bottom, this receiving group is easily the most talented since the Chiefs traded Hill and could be in the conversation for the best in Mahomes’ career. We have seen Brown be a dynamic, downfield threat as a receiver, and we know that teams will have to guard Worthy deep every time he’s on the field. Mix that with Kelce’s ability to find holes in the defense underneath, and the yards after catch ability of Rice, and you have a dangerous offense that can exploit every inch of the field on offense.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson earned his second career MVP award in 2023 in new offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s offense. Jackson posted career highs in completion percentage (67.2%) and passing yardage (3,678) with a 24-7 touchdown to interception ratio. He also had his best rushing season (148 carries for 821 yards and five touchdowns) since the 2020 season.
Jackson is being drafted as the QB4 in fantasy, which is exactly where he finished the 2023 season. The only seasons where we have seen Jackson finish outside of the top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy came in seasons where he played 15 or fewer games. So how does Jackson fail in 2024?
The Ravens lost three starters from their offensive line during the offseason, including both guards (John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler) and right tackle Morgan Moses. Baltimore didn’t add much to the position throughout the offseason, drafting just a developmental right tackle (Roger Rosengarten) in the second round of the draft. Jackson was highly efficient under pressure last season (1,142 yards and seven touchdowns with one interception), but that hasn’t always been the case in his career. That, and the always-looming idea that the veteran quarterback will rush less, is a rough combination.
Risk Level — Low
With Jackson, there is always the risk that he will run less and provide less fantasy production. Jackson averaged under 10 carries per game for the second consecutive season while averaging his lowest yards per carry (5.5) since his rookie season. Jackson spent the offseason cutting weight to get more agile, so it doesn’t seem like his running is going anywhere anytime soon. Most of the team’s offensive line has been depth on the team for years, so it may be best to trust the coaching staff on the veterans leaving in free agency.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud was a revelation in both real life and fantasy during his rookie season. Stroud completed 63.9% of his passes for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns with five interceptions while missing pieces of his pass-catchers and most of his offensive line in 2023. Stroud finished as the QB10 in fantasy points per game (18.7) and QB11 in total points (284.1). He’s currently being drafted as the QB5 in fantasy thanks to the upgrades the team made at wide receiver (Stefon Diggs) and running back (Joe Mixon) to improve his efficiency.
Stroud’s ability to fail is tied to his lack of rushing production, which is essential to being a QB1 in today’s fantasy landscape. The rookie had just 39 carries for 167 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie after totaling just 80 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown during his three seasons at Ohio State.
Risk Level — High
We just don’t see many pocket-passing quarterbacks secure a top-five finish in fantasy, and Stroud doesn’t have enough running production to be a top-five lock next season. Last year’s top pocket quarterback in fantasy was Dak Prescott, who finished as the QB3 in fantasy. Not only did Prescott have 400 more passing yards and 13 additional passing touchdowns, but he also had more carries (55) and rushing yards (242).
Even if Stroud takes a leap with better weapons, he’s likely being drafted at his ceiling unless he becomes far more dynamic on the ground in his second season.
