2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds and Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
It’s downer time around FTN Fantasy right now. Because the exciting part of fantasy football is dreaming of the upside. Maybe you have the hot rookie who can be Puka Nacua. Maybe you can spot the late-career breakout a la Raheem Mostert. That’s what we dream of. It’s one of the keys to the game.
But the other key to the game is avoiding the pitfalls. Drafting Austin Ekeler in 2023 or JuJu Smith-Schuster in 2019 might not have doomed your season, but it certainly made it way harder. You have to find the upside, but you also have to steer clear of the disasters.
So that’s what we’re going to look at. How could each of the top-drafted players at each position fail in 2024? What would it look like? And how likely is it?
(Unless there is a very specific reason not to do so, we’re ignoring injury risk here. It’s football. Everyone is a big injury risk. If your top pick gets hurt, well, that happens, good luck to you.)
Today: Running Backs
Check out other parts of the series: QB | WR | TE
2024 Fantasy Pessimist: Running Back
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
The knock against Christian McCaffrey for a few years there was his injury risk, after he played only 10 games across 2020 and 2021. Even with that, he was my first overall pick in 2022 and I was rewarded, and he’s played all but one game the last two years (and the one he missed was a meaningless Week 18), so even if we were playing the “injury risk” game, he’s shut that narrative down as well. Now, coming off the most touchdowns of his career and second-most scrimmage yards, his highest PFF grade, his best yards after contact per attempt, the only problem with McCaffrey is his age, as he just turned 28, and that’s a risky age. So that said, if McCaffrey fails in 2024, it’s because the 49ers offensive line is the team’s weak spot. Trent Williams is still excellent, but he’s 36 next week. The rest of the line is fine at best, with the Kyle Shanahan scheme carrying the day. That’s a risky structure for an offense. If Williams shows his age or gets hurt, if the line can’t help McCaffrey as much as it has, that will be his path to failure.
Risk Level — Low
Shanahan’s excellent scheming means he can paper over a lot of line deficiencies. It’s not infallible, but if that’s what you’re preying on, it’s a tenuous path.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Breece Hall finished as the RB2 in PPR last year, in large part due to his position-leading 76 receptions. He failed to reach 1,000 rushing yards, one of only two top-eight backs who failed to do so. So his path to being a top-flight fantasy back in 2024 might well rely on his receiving work again. Well, you might have heard that his quarterback is Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history, but one thing he’s never really done is throw to the running back. Rodgers has only had a back top 50 receptions twice in his career, and it was Aaron Jones both times, capping out at 59 in 2022. Jones (four times) is the only Rodgers back who has ever even had 40 receptions. If Rodgers continues to eschew the backfield as he has in the past, Hall’s upside drops a bit.
Risk Level — Low
“Enigmatic” describes Rodgers better than any quarterback ever, so we’ll see if he follows his former trends. Of course, the Packers struggled for years to give Rodgers a back even as good as Jones, let alone as good as Hall. He should still have a pretty safe route to top-flight RB production, especially another year removed from his ACL tear.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
After Bijan Robinson went eighth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, the expectation was that he would offer a monster performance as a rookie. Some (uh, maybe me?) even had him as their RB1 in drafts. It’s too much to call his season a failure, as he still finished as the RB9 in PPR leagues, but Robinson saw infuriating usage in 2023, only topping 20 PPR points in a game four times, and one of those was a meaningless-for-fantasy Week 18. The blame for that usage mostly fell to Arthur Smith, who is now the OC in Pittsburgh. Our expectation now is that a smarter coaching staff will use Robinson more like we all expected when he entered the NFL. But what if Smith isn’t just frustrating? What if there was something he saw in Robinson that explained his light usage? I don’t think that’s the case, but Smith was the one who saw him in practice.
Risk Level — Moderate
I expect Robinson to be fine in 2024. I could comfortably see a path to him being the overall RB1. That said, it’s still based at least in part on projection from when he entered the league, and among the top five backs in drafts, his backup is the best.
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have had at least an RB2 in fantasy in four of the last five years, and Saquon Barkley is better than either Miles Sanders or D’Andre Swift. If Barkley can resemble his self from his rookie 2018 or his 2022 season, he’s got massive upside. But can he? He’s 27 now and coming off his lowest full-season PFF grade (70.2) and fewest full-season receptions and lowest targets-per-game total in his career. The Giants were a mess last year, which couldn’t have helped, but if Barkley was a part of that and not a victim of it, he’s going to disappoint in 2024. On top of that, he’s on the Eagles now, and they’re defining characteristic is a quarterback who runs the ball when it’s short yardage. So his path to failure is declining inefficiency combined with Jalen Hurts Tush Pushing his way to glory.
Risk Level — High
Betting on a 27-year-old running back rebounding to his previous levels of efficiency is kind of asking for it. And maybe the Eagles have a less efficient Tush Push without Jason Kelce. But there are a lot of paths to Barkley letting us down.
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor was a monster in 2021, leading the league in attempts (332), yards (1,811) and touchdowns (18) and adding 360 yards and 2 more scores through the air. In two years since, he has fewer scrimmage yards (1,898) than he did in that year alone (2,171). He closed well last year, though, and with Zack Moss gone, there isn’t much behind him to steal touches. So the risk? Well, Anthony Richardson. Last year’s fourth overall pick scored 4 rushing touchdowns in only two full games and two partials. Taylor has 40 rushing touchdowns in his career — 12 of them have been from 1 yard out, and another 17 from 2 to 5 yards. That’s nearly three-quarters of his career touchdowns coming from a distance that Richardson would be happy to steal.
Risk Level — High
Richardson stealing some of Taylor’s touchdowns might not be enough for him to fall down to the flex rankings or below, but having a quarterback like him sneaking into the end zone more than a handful of times would be enough to keep Taylor from the top of the heap — in 2021 and 2022 combined, the Colts got two rushing scores from quarterbacks, one each from Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs probably has the best complementary back of any going in the top 10 in early 2024 drafts (De’Von Achane’s running mate Raheem Mostert is the only other possibility). That’s why he and Alvin Kamara were the only top-20 PPR backs last year to get fewer than 200 carries (182). David Montgomery is still around, so Gibbs just won’t get as many carries as many of his top-flight RB peers.
Risk Level — Moderate
So he doesn’t get 250 carries? The Detroit offense was (and should be) plenty strong to support both backs being fantasy relevant behind the league’s best offensive line. Montgomery might keep Gibbs from overall RB1 candidacy, but he’s not likely to keep him from being worth his draft slot or close.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne averaged 3.78 yards per carry last year, the worst among all 49 running backs with at least 270 PPR points in the last decade, one of only four such backs to come in under 4.0. He ran behind a bad offensive line last year, and our Dan Fornek ranks it 31st this year, so that’s not better. He wasn’t particularly efficient, he wasn’t particularly effective or quantity-laden down close (only 16 carries inside the 10). So the “How could he fail in 2024?” question is mostly answered by “Can he really succeed doing that again?”
Risk Level — High
I picked Etienne as my Jaguars bust in 2024. The team has to change something, and if he can’t show improvement, it’ll be even more passing from Trevor Lawrence or more work for D’Ernest Johnson/Tank Bigsby/2024 fifth-rounder Keilan Robinson. I don’t know exactly how it’ll look, but I know I won’t be in on Etienne this year.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
The history of the NFL is littered with late-round or undrafted backs in their first or second year breaking out and then quasi-disappearing. Just in the last few years, we have Phillip Lindsay, James Robinson, Dameon Pierce, Tyler Allgeier and more. Williams in 2023 was better than any of those guys in their breakouts, but it’s still true that the NFL is generally kinda good at knowing where backs should be drafted, and water finds its level eventually. Add in the selection of Blake Corum in the third round this year, and Williams might prove to be a one-year wonder.
Risk Level — Moderate
The key part of the preceding paragraph is “Williams in 2023 was better than any of those guys.” It’s not that rare to see a back run for 800 yards in a short stint and dream of more. It’s rarer to see someone put up 1,350 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns (in only 12 games!) and just go away. Health is a concern for Williams, and Corum certainly wasn’t drafted to do nothing, but it’d be a surprise to see the Rams just pivot completely.
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
By PPR points per game last year, De’Von Achane (17.3) was the No. 5 running back. The problems there: First, one of the backs ahead of him was teammate Raheem Mostert at 17.8, and he’s still around, as is new draftee Jaylen Wright. Second, the reason I had to specify points per game. Achane was a monster when he played last year (take out the games he barely played because of injury, and his PPG climbs over 20), but he missed time to injury three times last year. Yes, every player can get hurt, but we have one year of track record for Achane and three injuries on his resume. He’s blazing fast, but he’s one of the smallest backs in the league and appears to be brittle. I don’t believe in counting on injuries in this exercise generally, but here we can’t just ignore it.
Risk Level — High
Achane will probably never have a game better than his 51.3 points in Week 3 last year, but he seems like the kind to play 12-ish games a year and top 20 points in a few of those. Still, getting him in the first or second round is a booby trap, because you’re likely to need to find replacements more than once over the season.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
Derrick Henry just had the worst yards per carry of his career (4.2). His attempts per game fell to 16.5, it’s lowest points since 2018 before he was King Henry. His yards after contact per attempt (3.32) were his lowest since 2017. He turns 30 next week and is now in Baltimore, where he’ll run behind our 26th-ranked offensive line. We’re all pie-eyed about his upside alongside Lamar Jackson, but there are a lot of ways for Henry to be the biggest RB bust of 2024.
Risk Level — High
I think Henry will be very good in 2024! But yes, his risk profile is enormous. The Ravens line struggles. He’s 30 and not actually ageless. His already-meager receiving profile gets even worse with doesn’t-pass-to-backs Jackson. No back in 2024 has a higher gap between Derrick Henry’s floor and ceiling.
