The Fantasy Options Most Helped by Their Division in 2022

Because teams play only 17 games every NFL season, the identities of the teams they face change all the time. The Vikings might play the Giants one year, the Falcons the next, the 49ers the next. But for every team, there is the constant of the division. The Vikings might see those other teams only once every few years, but we know they will 100% play two games apiece against the Bears, Lions and Packers.

That means we can draw some meaning — not hard and fast conclusions, but takeaways — from how an individual team’s players fare in those intradivisional matchups. If Justin Jefferson, for example, put up way more points per game against the Eagles, Bills and Colts last year, well, what do you do with that information? He might not face them again as a Viking. But if his PPG went up 80% in games against the Bears, Lions and Packers, that’s worth noting. Might be signal, might be noise, but it at least warrants a deeper dive.

Today, I’m looking at the players who saw their production spike the most against their divisional foes last year (min. four intradivisional games) and exploring whether it means anything for 2023. Friday, I’ll look at the players who saw their production drop the most.

(All scoring PPR.)

The Players Most Helped by Their Division in 2022

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

Outside the division: 10.1 PPR points per game
Inside the division: 15.3
Increase: +51.2%

David Njoku reached at least 14 PPR points in a game five times in 2022, and four of them came against AFC North foes. Three of his four touchdowns came against the division, as did his only three games of at least 7 receptions. And it wasn’t just a hot streak — none of his big games came in consecutive weeks.

Does it mean anything? Well, per our fantasy points allowed tool, none of the AFC North teams were among the worst 10 against tight ends, so it’s hard to guarantee it was that significant. That said, four of Njoku’s top six games in 2021 came against AFC North teams as well, so maybe he raises it for divisional games. Maybe it’s worth something as a lineup tiebreaker.

Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos

Outside the division: 15.1
Inside the division: 20.7
Increase: +37.6%

Right up front: I’m open to some of this being more about sequencing than it is necessarily about Russell Wilson’s division. Wilson topped 20 fantasy points in a game four times in his first year in Denver, and all came against AFC West opponents. But it’s also worth noting that three of those games came in Wilson’s final four games of the year, so the improvement might have been more a matter of comfort with the Broncos and the coaching change. We can’t really know for sure.

That all said, Wilson’s best game outside the division was 17.8 PPR points in Week 1, against the Seahawks, another game where narratives would indicate he would raise his play. So his best game that didn’t come against the division or his former team featured 15.2 points, but he topped that five times in seven outings against the Seahawks or the AFC West. And he gets six more AFC West games in 2023. I’m tentatively buying a Wilson rebound.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Outside the division: 15.0
Inside the division: 20.4
Increase: +37.5%

DeVonta Smith’s third-best game of 2022 featured 21.2 PPR points in Week 13 against Tennessee. He topped 30 points in two games — Week 3 against Washington (30.9) and Week 16 against Dallas (31.3). Yes, that’s two NFC East opponents. On top of that, he came in under 10 PPR points five times, and all five came outside the division. His ceiling was much higher inside the division, and his floor was much higher inside the division. 

You’re obviously investing in DeVonta Smith for 2023 even if they somehow removed all NFC East games from the Eagles’ schedule. But imagine if the league packs the intra-divisional games toward the end of the season, as happens sometimes. Smith might be a league-winner.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos

Outside the division: 13.6
Inside the division: 18.4
Increase: +35.3%

Jerry Jeudy’s increase is tied to Russell Wilson’s, for sure. But it’s also worth noting that, whether it was due to injury or just trust, the increases for Jeudy and Wilson were decidedly not mirrored by Courtland Sutton:

Was Jeudy’s late-season pop the result of Sutton being hurt? Or was the organization disillusioned by Sutton, and could we see Jeudy emerge as the clear WR1 in this offense in 2023? I’m buying Jeudy as a breakout.

Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

Outside the division: 19.7
Inside the division: 26.7
Increase: +35.2%

This isn’t that much about the ceiling. Two of Davante Adams’ top three games, three of his top six and five of his top 10 came outside the AFC West (which means five of his top 10 came inside the division as well). It’s more about the floor — Adams had at least 12.3 PPR points in all six AFC West games but had under that number in five games outside the division. Like DeVonta Smith above, Adams is going to be a top fantasy target no matter who he faces in 2023. But man, if they backload his divisional schedule, he’s as safe as it gets.