Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 4’s main slate is on the horizon, and there are a heap of great offenses in elite spots this weekend. What’s even better is the fact that these offenses are not priced how they should be across the industry, including their multipliers on SuperDraft DFS.
As I have every week so far, I will be providing my top five SuperDraft DFS picks for the Sunday slate. If you are unfamiliar with SuperDraft, there is no salary cap. Instead, there are individual score multipliers assigned to every player.
Below are my top five plays on SuperDraft for Week 4.
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Sam Darnold, QB, Carolina Panthers (1.6x score multiplier)
While there’s a ton of industry attention on his opponent, Dak Prescott, Darnold is seemingly going overlooked, and I cannot seem to figure out why. He’s been both efficient and effective this season, topping 300 passing yards in two of his first three games while averaging 296 passing yards per game and adding three passing touchdowns and a trio of rushing touchdowns.
Eliot Crist pointed out an important factor working in Darnold’s favor this week in his 10 under 10 article, noting:
“Darnold has had huge first halves with 150 plus yards in the first half passing for three straight weeks, but he took his foot off the gas in the second half. The Panthers play their best opponent and an elite offense and will have to put up big numbers to win this game.”
Having been able to average nearly 300 passing yards per game where he wasn’t necessarily needed for four quarters, Darnold could be set to explode against one of the worst pass defenses in football. His 1.7x-multiplier is a far cry from how productive he’s been. Take the value and move on.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions (1.45x)
Speaking of disrespectful multipliers, Swift’s should be in the same conversation. Swift has been everything that we could’ve hoped for, averaging over 96 total yards per game on the back of 17.3 touches per game (18.7 opportunities per game). While he’s still fighting off Jamaal Williams for touches, Swift has also been able to add a pair of touchdowns and, per the coaching staff, seems to be over his soft tissue injury.
Having 20-touch upside with the potential for more in a soft matchup against a Chicago team where regardless of script, Swift will get touches, makes for a smash-spot at a nice price.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills (1.15x)
Last week, we got ahead of the curve with Justin Jefferson and DK Metcalf’s breakout games. Week 4 is Diggs’ turn. He hasn’t turned in the first-round production many had hoped for, but he remains the favorite in Buffalo (26.4% target share) and ranks third in the entire NFL in air yards (409) behind only Brandin Cooks (hint hint) and Davante Adams.
He now gets to turn his attention to a Texans’ secondary that’s giving up over eight yards per attempt and a 74.5% completion rate to the first-read targets, something Diggs should find success with. Typically a player without a multiplier on SuperDraft, this is a rare week where we get a 15% bonus on his production. Take the value and sit back for the ceiling game.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans (1.45x)
Sticking in the same game, Cooks clocks in as my favorite overall player on SuperDraft in Week 4. His receiving metrics have shattered all expectations despite some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL, as it hasn’t mattered whether it’s Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills throwing him the ball. Whoever it is, he’s producing.
While the Bills defense isn’t one that I typically target against, the negative game script should continue to force targets in Cooks’ direction, and this is a situation where the volume is high enough where it somewhat negates the matchup. He’s priced for the difficulty of the matchup as well, only adding to the appeal.
Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins (1.7x)
Gesicki has continued to disappoint everyone in fantasy circles over the last few seasons, but Week 3 showed what his potential upside is with Jacoby Brissett under center. Gesicki finished second on the team in targets (12), trailing only Jaylen Waddle (13). He turned those 12 targets into 10 catches for over 80 yards, showing an insane ceiling without even finding the end zone.
His 66% of the offensive snaps in Week 3 was his highest mark of the season, and given the fact that the inside of the secondary is where Indianapolis struggles most, Gesicki could have another strong outing on the horizon with a juicy 1.7x multiplier.
