Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 3’s Sunday slate is one sleep away, and for the first time this season, we have a rather significant amount of injury news to monitor. Dalvin Cook and Darrell Henderson, two of the higher-volume running backs in the league, are both listed as questionable after missing practice all week. The cherry on top? They play in the 4:00 p.m. games. Taking a stance one way or another here could drastically change your lineups, so make sure to stay on top of it.
As I have every week so far, I will be providing my top five SuperDraft DFS picks for the Sunday slate. If you are unfamiliar with SuperDraft, there is no salary cap. Instead, there are individual score multipliers assigned to every player.
Below are my top five plays on SuperDraft for Week 3.
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Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (1.7x score multiplier)
Risky? Sure. Full of upside? Absolutely. Fields will make his first career start on Sunday against the Browns, and while this matchup seems daunting on paper, there’s upside to be had here aside from Field’s Konami Code abilities. Derek Brown outlines the holes in the Browns’ defense eloquently in his game-by-game breakdown:
“For all the talent the Browns have on defense, they’ve started slow this season. They rank 31st (27th vs. deep passing, 26th vs. short passing) in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). In Week 1, they allowed 60% of the deep passes against them to be completed and are 26th in explosive pass rate allowed. Before Tyrod Taylor left due to injury last week, he completed 90.9% of his passes with 11.3 yards per attempt. This is music to my ears for a player like Fields, who has been aggressive in his limited NFL action dialing up deep shots on 20% of his passing plays.”
With so much attention in this area going to the likes of Daniel Jones (1.55x), I much prefer Fields at his 1.7x multiplier considering he should be rostered in under 5% of lineups.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (1.35x)
All of the rave throughout the week in this range continues to be about Saquon Barkley, who also has a 1.35x score multiplier. While I think Barkley is a fine play, and I will have my exposure, I would much prefer Ekeler if forced to choose.
After an unusual game in Week 1 where he failed to draw a target, Ekeler bounced back in Week 2 with a nine-target, nine-catch performance reminiscent of his typical usage. He’s primed for a massive game this week as well, as he’s averaged 18.25 touches on 20.5 opportunities per game over the last two seasons in games with an implied total of at least 50 points. With a 54.5-point total on Sunday, Ekeler is bound to have an integral role both on the ground and through the air.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams (1.2x)
Kupp is going to be a chalky option, but given his performance this season combined with a 1.2x multiplier, it’s hard for me to get away from it.
He’s already amassed 21 targets on only 56 total throws from Matthew Stafford, notching a 38.18% target share, and now he gets to take on a pass-funnel defense in a game where Stafford should be forced to throw much more. This is a simple situation where it’s important to avoid overthinking. Kupp is a core play in all of my lineups.
Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (1.55x)
Williams is another player who I fully intend to run it back with until he’s priced correctly. A 1.55x multiplier ain’t it, either. Williams has built on his big-play upside this season by adding secure volume to his resume. Through two games, he’s totaled a team-high 24 targets (26.37% target share) as well as a team-high five red-zone targets.
He’s also topped 80 yards in back-to-back games while recording at least seven catches in each of the first two games as well. With the Chargers being 7-point underdogs in a game with a 54.5-point total, he’s bound to build on this level of volume once again in Week 3.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions (1.4x)
Sticking with the theme of being underpriced, Hockenson fits the bill in Week 3 with his 1.4x multiplier.
He’s been a target-hog in his first two games with Jared Goff, totaling 20 targets (23.53% target share) and a team-high four red-zone targets. The Ravens are typically regarded as a stout defensive unit, but frankly, they’ve been anything but through the first two weeks.
They’ve allowed 68 total points through the first two games and over 340 passing yards in each of those contests. With the Lions trailing for the majority of the game, this sets up as yet another opportunity for Hockenson to get a massive amount of targets, especially the valuable red-zone looks.
