Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins

NFL Week 14 starts to draw to a close with the Los Angeles Chargers  vs. Miami Dolphins, and this article breaks down this Sunday Night Football matchup for DFS. Whether you’re playing DraftKings or FanDuel Showdown – or playing in a DFS Primetime Slate – we have plenty of info for you.

The NFL used their ability to flex games into different time slots for a good one tonight when the  Dolphins travel to LA to face the Chargers, and there are a lot of implications for the postseason. The Dolphins entered Sunday as the sixth seed in the AFC with the Chargers sitting just one game behind. We should see some good offensive football, so let’s dive in and find out who to target!

Be sure to check out David Jones’ “General Rules” article for Showdown Strategy and his piece for each game, along with the DFS Showdown Strategy articles for each slate. Additionally, the FTN Livestream every game night will provide the latest insight for each slate. 

NFL DFS Sunday Night Breakdown: Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers

Dolphins -3.5, O/U 53.5 (Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)

Miami Dolphins Plays for Week 14 DFS – SNF Showdown and Primetime Slates

Quarterback

It was a rough game last week for Tua Tagovailoa against the San Francisco defense, but even in a difficult game, he threw for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns. The three turnovers cut the score off at the knees, but the matchup is far better this week with the Chargers ranking 16^th in DVOA against the pass and 22^nd in points per game allowed, while Tua is eighth in points per game. He is also eighth in points per dropback, first in yards per attempt, ninth in true completion rate, sixth in play-action completion rate, first in passer rating against man coverage and second in passer rating against zone coverage. 

Perhaps the best facet for Tua is how he handles the blitz because the Chargers bring it at the fifth-highest rate in football. Tua and his receivers have shredded the blitz so far this year with a 70.6% completion rate and a 144.6 passer rating, while both numbers are significantly higher than a play that isn’t blitzed. If we can get a ceiling from him and this passing game, we want the deep ball to get working as well. The passer rating for Tua is 131.0 while the Chargers have allowed the eighth-most yards on deep attempts. With the amount of fantasy goodness in this game, it’s going to be tough to choose, but I believe Tua may have the higher ceiling of the two quarterbacks. 

Running Back

The running back room looks to be a little bit of a pickle if last week is any indication. Since Jeff Wilson has been in Miami, he has a 40-24 lead in carries and a 9-4 lead in red-zone carries. That would make it seem easy to pick, but last week Raheem Mostert took over with seven carries to one (the Dolphins were losing a large portion of the game) and took 60.9% of the snaps. It would be one thing if this was a spot that could easily be faded, but the Chargers have had one of the worst rush defenses in the league all year. They are 30^th in stuff rate, 32^nd in yards per attempt allowed, 31^st in rush yards allowed per game and 29^th in points per game allowed.  

With this being a tough call, we’re going to have to make our best-educated guess, and I believe we’re looking at a timeshare. However, Wilson is ninth in yards per touch, fifth in breakaway runs, 15^th in rushing yards and 31^st in points per game. For Mostert, he’s only 24^th in yards per touch, 19^th in breakaway runs and 26^th in rushing yards. Granted, Wilson does have one more game played, but he has been the more efficient back for most of the season. When we have a split backfield, I’m always going to lean toward that player, and I don’t fully believe that Mostert has just taken back over. I would be heavier on Wilson in any MME format, but Mostert is in play as well. 

Wide Receiver

Jaylen Waddle is off the injury report, but the focal point of the receiver room has to still be Tyreek Hill. Yes, he is expensive but he has every reason to be since he’s fourth in points per game, first in yards, first in receptions and first in yards run per route. No receiver has higher yards per team pass attempt, and his 32.3% target share is second in the league. His matchup grade is off the charts in the WR/CB Matchup Tool and he’s up to a 42% slot rate, which is a huge statistical bonus against the Los Angeles secondary. Bryce Callahan is in the slot almost exclusively, and his 76% catch rate allowed is the highest of the main three corners by a significant amount. He’s also allowing 0.26 points per route, while Hill leads all receivers in points produced per route at 0.68.  Just like any other game or format, Hill is an elite play and will be among my highest priorities on the slate. I believe he’ll have the highest ceiling outcome possible in this game, especially since he’s still fifth in unrealized air yards. 

Waddle is $2,400 less expensive than Hill and has plenty of upside himself, in part because he has eight red-zone targets as opposed to seven for Hill. Even after he missed a large portion of the last game, Waddle is still 12^th in points per game, fifth in yards and eighth in yards run per route. He’s also still soaking up a 22.3% target share and a 28.4% air yards share, while the matchup for him is tougher than Hill’s. He faces more of Michael Davis, and he’s only allowing a 56% catch rate and 0.21 points per route. Everyone in the receiving corps does rotate through alignments, playing every position at least 25% of the time. 

That includes Trent Sherfield, who has run out of the slot 48% of the time. Even though 52% of his routes will come against Davis and Asante Samuel (who’s at 0.33 points per route and a 62% catch rate allowed), he’s going to get the matchup against Callahan a ton in this game. Sherfield does only have a 9.8% target share in the offense, but he at least does have a 13.5% share of the red-zone targets. He’s not extremely cheap since he took a short reception last week for a 75-yard touchdown, but he is in play for MME formats. 

Tight End

In the weeks since the trade deadline, Mike Gesicki has seen his snaps decline to just 44.4% and has only seen seven targets in four games. That’s been notable to me since I felt like he was getting extra run to try and raise whatever trade value he had, but nobody bit and now he’s just not being utilized. Durham Smythe has played more snaps at 54.0% but has only seen five targets, two of which coming in the red zone. Smythe may miss this game since he’s listed as questionable, and if he does, Hunter Long and Tanner Conner could both be active although neither player has recorded a point this year. The Chargers have allowed the 13^th-most points per game, but the Miami offense hasn’t used the tight end much and the risk for under 2-4 DK points seems high. 

Defense/Special Teams

Both defenses are in for a fight tonight because these offenses are difficult to defend and the defenses overall are mostly average at best. The Dolphins are 17^th in total DVOA and 26^th in points allowed, in addition to only generating the third-lowest pressure rate on the year. Those numbers have been creeping up since they added edge rusher, Bradley Chubb, to the fold and the Chargers are 14^th in sacks allowed. Despite their litany of injuries, the Chargers are also 14^th in points scored per game while only turning the ball over 13 times, tied for fourth-fewest. 

I believe the best argument to be made for the Dolphins defense (and the Chargers when we get there) is they will almost surely be lower-rostered than the kickers in this game. With the amount of passing that could be expected, each team could give up 25+ points and still get 2-3 sacks, and 1-2 takeaways and there’s always a chance for a defensive or kick return touchdown. The Chargers allow the highest pressure rate in football, so the possibility of splash plays from Miami exists more than the field might think. 

Kicker

Jason Sanders has yet to hit a field goal attempt from 50 yards or more, but he’s still averaging almost eight points per game since he’s attached to a strong offense. He’s only 22^nd in attempts on the year, but the Chargers have been sort of a bend-but-don’t-break defense. They’re eighth in conversion rate allowed inside the red zone, so Sanders could wind up with an extra attempt or two. 

Los Angeles Chargers Plays for Week 14 DFS – SNF Showdown and Primetime Slates

Quarterback

It had been a little easier to fade Justin Herbert through the middle part of the season due to injuries among the entire offense, but that’s starting to not be the case. While the offensive line still has its issues, Herbert is working with a full complement of weapons. The results started to return right about when receiver Keenan Allen came back three weeks ago, and Herbert gets receiver Mike Williams back this week. Herbert has rattled off three consecutive games of at least 20.7 DK points, and the matchup is generous on paper. Miami is only 23^rd in DVOA against the pass and 29^th in points allowed per game. Even in a tough season, Herbert is 10^th in points per game and the volume has been immense.

We do not have to worry about a split in the Los Angeles backfield since Austin Ekeler has over 60% of the running back carries for the Chargers and a 21.2% air yards share. Nobody else in the backfield has more than 35 carries or five red-zone carries on the season, so even though Joshua Kelley is the main backup option, he is expensive for under 10 touches and extremely limited touchdown upside. The focus here is solely on Ekeler although Miami has been very good at defending the run itself. They are ninth in DVOA against the run, fourth in points per game and fourth in rushing yards allowed per game. 

It is a bad matchup in that facet, but there is a very clear path for Ekeler to get some major work done. The Dolphins are allowing the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs and that is the best part of Ekler’s game since he’s first in receptions, first in receiving yards, first in points per game and second in touchdowns. Ekeler is only 25^th in rushing yards but has been a borderline cheat code in the passing game, and the only real catch is that the whole offense is playing for the skill positions. That has not been something the Chargers have had for the vast majority of the season, so I don’t believe he’s going to maintain a target share over 21%. I would be willing to skip Ekeler in the builds that I’m shooting to jam in both quarterbacks and would want to play Tyreek Hill over Ekeler as well. 

Wide Receiver

The receiving corps is priced pretty fairly since I would view Keenan Allen as the main target. He’s also relatively cheap, which adds to the appeal and Allen has a 23.9% target share since he came back into the lineup in Week 11. Now, maybe that’s going to drop a bit since Mike Williams is back for this game, but Allen has been a target magnet for multiple seasons and is running out of the slot 67% of the time. That means he’ll be dealing with Kader Kohou, who is allowing a 66% catch rate and 0.22 points per route. Allen has played so little this season that it’s tough to get a grip on the seasonal stats, but he’s 20^th in yards run per route and the salary does not reflect the upside that he’s carrying in a shootout-style game. 

Williams is interesting since he’s not going to line up on Xavien Howard’s side of the field on paper, but there is a possibility that Howard does shadow in this game. He’s been deployed as such six times this season but at the same time, we shouldn’t confuse him as a shutdown corner. He’s giving up a 64% catch rate and 0.27 points per route and has allowed at least 85 yards three times. Granted, two of those receivers were Tee Higgins from Cincinnati and Justin Jefferson, but Williams is a good receiver with big-play ability. The problem is between his injuries and the general incompetence of the offense for a large portion of the year is that Williams is only 39^th in yards per reception. He’s the perfect GPP option since he’s boom or bust and certainly not a stable option. 

Joshua Palmer and DeAndre Carter are both MME options but much harder to gauge. With Allen and Williams on the field, they’re going to eat up around 45% of the targets, if not a little more. Palmer is likely to be on the field much more as the other boundary receiver and is WR32 in points per game this year. If Howard is following Williams around, Keion Crossen would be the primary corner, and he’s only allowing 0.24 points per route and a 64% catch rate. Palmer is a riskier option since he’d be no higher than fourth on the totem pole for targets and Carter is likely only on the field in four-receiver sets. With a target share of just 10.7%, you’d probably be banking on just one big play or a touchdown. 

Tight End

The secondary receivers are probably vying for targets with Gerald Everett to be targeted. Everyone is healthy for the Chargers, so he’s not likely to see a ton of work but that also makes the offense tougher to cover overall. Everett has a 13.1% target share on the season and is tied for the team lead in red-zone targets. With a 6.5-yard aDOT, he’s mostly been functioning as a safety valve and is TE9 in points per game, ninth in receptions, eighth in yards and sixth in red-zone targets at the position. His salary keeps him in the mix to be a secondary player to stack when you play Herbert and as a run-back.

Defense/Special Teams

The Miami offense may have struggled last week, but the Chargers are not the 49ers on the defensive side of the ball. Los Angeles is only 23^rd in total DVOA, 30^th in points per game allowed and has just a 5% sack rate. Miami is tied for the fifth-lowest pressure rate allowed but is eighth in points scored per game and until last week, they had not lost a game that Tua Tagovailoa had started and finished. You can make the same arguments for the Chargers side of things that we did with Miami, but I would prefer to play the Dolphins unit if either one. 

Kicker

The legend of Cameron Dicker continues to grow in Los Angeles, and through six games he’s hit 12 of his 13 field goal attempts and all 12 of his extra points. One aspect that could limit the attempts is Miami is 28^th in red-zone touchdown conversion rate allowed at 64.1%. If the Chargers can move the ball, Los Angeles probably needs to get points whenever they can. In a high-total environment, kickers are always a pretty easy addition to the lineup. 

Core DFS Plays for SNF Week 14

• Tyreek Hill 
• Tua Tagovailoa
• Keenan Allen