NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2023 fantasy football season. All summer, our analysts, two at a time, will preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming season. We’ll pick a pair of sleepers, a pair of busts and a pair of bold predictions. Sometimes they’ll be the same pick! Sometimes they will directly disagree! And that’s fine. Today: The Minnesota Vikings.
Below, Daniel Kelley and Dan Fornek tackle the Vikings, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2023 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Minnesota Vikings
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Kelley: Kirk Cousins
Fornek: K.J. Osborn
Biggest Bust
Kelley: Justin Jefferson
Fornek: Alexander Mattison
Bold Prediction
Kelley: There is no top-40 running back on the Vikings roster
Fornek: Kirk Cousins leads the league in passing yards
The Explanations
Sleepers
Kelley: Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins has been a starter for eight years in the NFL. (And it’s worth noting, he’s missed two games in those eight years — one to COVID-19, the other a meaningless last game of the season. Dude is the iron man of iron men.) In those eight years, he’s finished as QB13 or better in fantasy seven times (he was QB18 in 2019), and only once has he ever finished worse than his ADP (he was QB13 in 2018 after being drafted at QB10). So he has no real chance of being the overall QB1. Fine. A lot of quarterbacks don’t. But among the quarterbacks who we more or less know can’t be the top-scoring QB, no one has a better chance of being a fantasy starter.
After the arrival of T.J. Hockenson last year, Cousins saw his passing yards per game climb from 245.7 to 279.4. Now he has a full season of Hockenson and he gets Jordan Addison replacing whatever Adam Thielen was in the 2022 version of himself. On top of that, Dalvin Cook is gone, and while he is no longer the Cook of old, there’s no one in this year’s version of the Vikings backfield who can do what he did, and that should lead to more passing attempts for Cousins as well. And of course, there’s Cousins himself, who just set a career high in pass attempts and is on a team that should see less success in one-score games (i.e., be forced to pass more). Cousins is available at QB12 in drafts right now, and I think that’s his floor yet again.
Fornek: K.J. Osborn
Most of the Vikings’ weapons have been priced highly throughout the summer, with K.J. Osborn the one exception. Osborn is currently going off the board as the WR72 based on current Sleeper ADP. Given that Osborn finished as the WR45 last season with 9.2 PPR points per game in 2022, this is quite the fall.
Osborn has carved out a solid role for himself in the Vikings offense over the last two seasons, averaging 86 targets, 55 receptions and 652.5 receiving yards per season while scoring 12 total touchdowns. Long known for their balanced offensive approach, the Vikings passed the ball at a 59.8% rate in Kevin O’Connell’s first year as head coach. Kirk Cousins attempted 643 pass attempts last season, fourth most in the NFL and the most he’s thrown the ball in his career. It is hard to imagine a scenario where the Vikings pass the ball less after cutting Dalvin Cook and adding Jordan Addison in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
There will be plenty of target competition for Osborn in his fourth season with the Vikings, but his current ADP makes him a value as the clear third wide receiver in a pass-heavy offense.
Busts
Kelley: Justin Jefferson
Oh, calm down, I’m not saying Justin Jefferson is going to finish WR20 or anything. But I also think the consensus is that Jefferson is the unquestioned WR1 for 2023, and I … would like to question that. Jefferson was the best receiver a year ago, but much of what worked in his favor has changed. T.J. Hockenson is around for a full season. Jordan Addison should be an upgrade over the desiccated remains of Adam Thielen. The defense under Brian Flores should improve. The running game could take a step back without Dalvin Cook. Each factor by itself could be small, but taken together, it makes me worry for Jefferson’s “the WR1” upside.
Take Hockenson’s arrival. With Thielen a shell of his former self and Irv Smith out, Jefferson was the team’s only red-zone weapon early last year. When Hockenson arrived, that changed. Per the FTN red zone tool, Jefferson went from 2.3 red-zone opportunities a game through Week 10 (including six games of 3 or more) to 1.3 after (and no more than 2 in a game). Per the FTN splits tool, receptions and yards also fell, from 8.2 and 123.0 a game before Hockenson to 7.2 and 94.0 with. None of that is dramatic, but it all matters when we’re talking about the top overall receiver. And then of course there’s Cooper Kupp, who has averaged 25.5 PPR points per game in 25 games he didn’t get injured over the last two years and is the last man standing in Los Angeles. Give me Kupp as the WR1 in 2023. And then Jefferson can be lumped in with Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill and everyone else in a conversation for WR2. He’s probably a top-five WR. But he’s not my WR1.
Fornek: Alexander Mattison
Dalvin Cook’s release from the Vikings rocketed Alexander Mattison’s ADP up the boards in early fantasy drafts. The veteran running back is currently being drafted with the 55th pick in Sleeper drafts, the RB22. Many will point to Mattison’s six career starts due to Dalvin Cook’s injuries as evidence that Mattison can be a top running back with higher volume, but context matters in this argument.
Five of Mattison’s career starts have come against the Lions (three times), Falcons and Seahawks. In four of those games, Mattison had at least 90 rushing yards. Despite the success, Mattison’s career yards per carry in a high-volume role (3.8) is lower than his career yards per carry (4.1). Mattison is the definition of a north/south grinder who lacks explosiveness. There is a realistic chance that the Vikings outsource some of Cook’s receiving work to more explosive backfield options like Ty Chandler or Kene Nwangwu.
Mattison will get plenty of volume in Minnesota in 2023, but his fantasy finish will likely come down to his ability to score touchdowns. This makes him susceptible to busting at his current ADP, especially if the Vikings continue to pass at a high rate.
Bold Predictions
Kelley: There Is No Top-40 Running Back on the Vikings Roster
That is worded very specifically, because if the Vikings were to add, say, Ezekiel Elliott or Kareem Hunt, I think this could change. But as currently constructed, this is a low-upside committee that I want no part of. The committee should be led by Alexander Mattison, who has averaged 3.7 yards per carry over 208 attempts the last two years. He’s backed up by Day 3 picks from each of the last three drafts (Kene Nwangwu, fourth round, 2021; Ty Chandler, fifth round, 2022; DeWayne McBride, seventh round, 2023). For a backup running back to jump to fantasy value, they almost have to have receiving upside. These guys? Nwangwu has 13 receptions since high school (7 in college 2016-2020, 6 in the NFL). Chandler had 26 in five years in college. McBride had 5 in three years. So if there’s receiving work here, it will go to Mattison … who was 65th of 69 backs (min. 15 targets) in PFF receiving grade last year, 47th of 73 in 2021.
For a Vikings running back to matter in fantasy, we’d need someone to be so measurably better than the others to get the lion’s share of work, and as currently constructed, it’s four so-so backs with minimal receiving upside and little reason to expect big ground success. If you want to draft one of the backups late as a hedge against Mattison actually taking this job and running with it, sure, that’s a fine lottery ticket. But Mattison’s ADP is now RB18, and … goodness no.
Fornek: Kirk Cousins Leads the League in Passing Yards
Kirk Cousins threw the ball more than ever in 2022, but a lot of his other metrics took a hit despite the higher pass volume. Cousins posted his lowest yards per attempt average since 2018 (7.1) and his lowest touchdown rate since 2016 (4.5%). Some of it could be changes to the offense, but Cousins also was forced to throw to a declining Adam Thielen for most of the season. Thielen is gone now, upgraded to rookie Jordan Addison, who averaged 14.3 yards per reception during his collegiate career. His presence should encourage Cousins to push the ball downfield more.
This, plus a full season with T.J. Hockenson, should allow Cousins to increase his yards per attempt down the field while remaining highly efficient as a passer. If the Vikings keep the same pass rate (or even increase it), then Cousins will have every opportunity to finish as the top passer in the NFL in 2023 after finishing fourth (despite the high passing volume) in 2022.
