Single-Entry NFL DFS Lineup Review for Week 10

Each week, I’ll review my single entry lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be > 10% of my overall investment. We’ll just be looking at my single-entry lineup this week.

The goal here is to hold myself accountable for the decisions I make while also helping to provide a blueprint for long term success in GPPs.

Throughout the year, I’ll emphasize the top 10% and top 1% hit rates. While profit/loss is at the mercy of significant variance at the top of tournaments, these hit rates stabilize much faster and can therefore paint a stronger picture of our performance.

Finally a profitable SE week! This lineup had a clear path to hitting big, so let’s dive in.

The Single-Entry

Every choice we make can be categorized in one of four groups:

Bad Process & Bad Outcome
Bad Process & Good Outcome
Good Process & Bad Outcome
Good Process & Good Outcome

We’ll begin with #1:

Bad Process & Bad Outcome

Titans D/ST

I liked the Eagles more and knew fewer players would be in on them, but decided I was differentiated enough. While true, D/ST is extremely volatile, so whenever I’m not sold on the chalk being the best option, I want to differentiate.

Bad Process & Good Outcome

N/A

Good Process & Bad Outcome

Austin Ekeler

Ekeler had 11 carries and 6 targets, but it was among his least efficient games of the year despite a great matchup. Additionally, he was vultured from the 1 yard line by his backup and the Chargers, who came into the week in the top ten in plays per game (65 per) ran just 55 plays in a pace-up spot (seriously, what the hell?).

One contributing factor may have been Brandon Staley’s sudden reluctance to go for it on a couple key 4th downs, despite being the most aggressive coach on 4th downs through the first half of the season.

Good Process & Good Outcome

Ezekiel Elliott & Jonathan Taylor

Zeke’s two first half touchdowns were enormous, as they got him to 20 DraftKings points in 30 minutes while also providing key correlated leverage by keeping Dak Prescott from scoring. Dak’s last minute TD to Lamb followed by a rushing TD in the second half got him there, but boy did things look good for a while there.

Meanwhile, Taylor also crossed the 20 DK point threshold in the first half, but was similarly slowed down in the latter half. Nonetheless, I certainly can’t complain about 49.5 DK points between the two.

Kirk Cousins – Justin Jefferson – Tyler Conklin

Boy did this stack deliver! Jefferson was WR3 on the day and Conklin was TE2. It’s a shame that Cousins came up just six yards short of the bonus, as that would have made him QB3 as well. The Offensive Efficiency Report came through, as Cousins had the 3rd highest projected adjusted completion percentage.

Takeaways

Flipping the script gave me a great chance to hit big, but the second half of the early games sank the ship a bit – not only did Elliott and Taylor slow down, but D’Ernest Johnson and Mark Ingram went from slow first halves to huge second halves. This was a well-built and well-executed line, as it had a semi-successful correlated leverage play (Elliott), a potential slate-breaker (Taylor), and a big hit on the foundational passing stack. The big win is coming!