Should You Draft Russell Wilson and Justin Fields in Best Ball in 2024?

Pittsburgh underwent a massive change at QB in 2024 — actually, changes — and Underdog Fantasy best ball drafters are responded with a giant, wet raspberry. 

Nobody seems to know what to do after the Steelers added both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields — both players have an ADP higher than 170. 

Let’s dive into the data behind how you can approach the PIT QB situation in best ball this year.

All data is from FTN’s free Underdog ADP tool and ADP Exploration tool. If you want all of our best ball coverage all offseason, get an FTN Fantasy+ sub today.

The Pittsburgh QBs: Wilson or Fields?

First, the Steelers added Russell Wilson. Then a week later, they traded for Justin Fields. Wilson reacted to the news with excitement, but then the question immediately sank in: Who will actually be the starter for the Steelers?

Head coach Mike Tomlin has said Wilson is in the “pole” position for the starter QB role, but that he’s “not resistant to competition.”

However, some of us — ahem — immediately didn’t buy it:

And what’s fascinating is to see how the Underdog draft community reacted. Here are Wilson and Fields’ ADPs from late February until today. Wilson joined the Steelers March 11, Fields March 16.

The draft data suggests people agree with my tweet shown above. I thought it was a semi-hot take. Apparently not. People are not buying the Tomlin coachspeak.

But is it really that simple?

It’s inherently odd that we’re drafting the presumed backup three full rounds ahead of the QB the head coach has already proclaimed to be the starter. Wilson was horrible in 2022, but he was solid in 2023, throwing just 8 INTs against 26 TDs — posting numbers eerily similar to his first three years in the league. 

But that’s also because Denver dumbed it down last year. Wilson’s YPA plummeted to 6.9, the lowest of his career. (His career average is 7.7.)

Wilson vs. Fields: Consistency

Last year, Wilson was more consistent than Fields. He provided positive fantasy wins added in 82% of his games, compared to just 62% for Fields. 

Granted, this doesn’t mean Wilson was crushing. It just means he wasn’t actively making your fantasy team lose. 

This consistently is actually #notgood for fantasy. Consistency like this would be good if the floor was higher, but for Wilson, it was just “borderline usable.”

Consider this: Fields had six games as a top-10 fantasy QB last year. Wilson had just four, despite playing two more games. 

It gets really interesting when you blend the fantasy impact and the real-life impact. Wilson being more consistent might actually make him hold onto the real-life job longer. Which, in theory, is good for fantasy, but everyone is pretty sure Wilson is cooked in the fantasy realm. So him being the starter is just meh.

Fields, meanwhile, is less likely to get or hold onto the job in real life, but the fantasy upside is just so much greater that we’re taking him ahead of Wilson anyway.

Fields or Wilson in Best Ball 2024

Unless we get word Wilson will be the starter no matter what (this won’t happen), Fields should continue to be drafted ahead of him.

In fact, I’m not sure Wilson is worth drafting at all. Sure, he’s a last- or second-to-last-round pick. But there is simply no upside to speak of AND he has the looming threat of Fields if it’s not going well.

And I think Fields is going too early. The odds of him starting are already against him, and the odds of him starting every week feel slim. He’d payoff if he starts any significant chunk of time, but I think I’d like his ADP to slip another full round before I feel good about it.