Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
All summer long, I’m taking a look at the fantasy landscape heading into 2023 and helping drafters make some of the toughest decisions. If two players are close to one another in ADP, who should you choose? That’s the plan here. This is Fantasy Crossroads.
This is pretty fun.
Both James Cook and Dalvin Cook now play in the AFC East, so our latest edition of the Fantasy Crossroads series will be a bit of a sibling rivalry. Should you draft the veteran running back who now plays for the Jets? Or is the sophomore breakout candidate in Buffalo the better option?
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
The Case for James Cook
James Cook fumbled the very first carry of his NFL career. From then on, however, he was very good. As a rookie, Cook ranked second among all qualified running backs in yards per attempt (5.7), third in yards per touch (6.3) and first in breakaway run rate (12.1%). Starting in Week 11, Cook started to get more run, averaging 10 touches and 11 opportunities per game alongside Devin Singletary, who is now in Houston.
Cook is talented and in a terrific offense, and playing alongside Josh Allen certainly has its advantages. For starters, you rarely see stacked boxes because defenses have to respect Allen, but Buffalo also plays as much spread offense as any team in the league, forcing teams to respect the pass. Over his final three seasons with the Bills, Singletary saw stacked boxes (eight-plus defenders) on 4.4% (2nd-fewest), 13.8% (8th-fewest) and 20.3% (22nd-fewest) of his carries. And last year, of Cook’s 89 rushing attempts, just 6.6% were against stacked boxes, one of the lowest rates in football.
Earlier in the offseason, I definitely had some questions regarding just how much work Cook would get. The Bills like him, but he’s sub-200 pounds and the team brought in both Damien Harris and Latavius Murray via free agency. And while Harris has missed most of the preseason with an injury, Cook has essentially dominated the first team reps, while looking like one of the best players in Bills training camp. During Buffalo’s last preseason game against the Steelers, Allen and the starting offense played 16 snaps. Cook, meanwhile, was on the field for 14 of those plays, running eight pass routes and seeing three carries. That is really encouraging usage for Cook, who appears to be in line for 15-17 touches per game in his second NFL season.
The Case against James Cook
The element of this Buffalo offense that has made them elite over the years has been Josh Allen’s presence in the run game. However, it has also capped the fantasy upside of the running backs in this backfield. For two years now, the Bills have talked about how they want Allen to run the football less. And for two years, Allen has actually run the football more, totaling 122 and 124 attempts over the past two seasons.
Allen has ranked third and fourth among quarterbacks in designed rushing attempts during that span, as his size, athleticism and playmaking is a huge part of this offense. Buffalo would often call QB power plays out of empty sets, and although the coaching staff has discussed how they (once again) want Allen to run less, it remains such a key part of the offense. With his size, Allen will always be used in some capacity around the goal line, too. This past season, Allen accounted for a whopping 61.1% of Buffalo’s carries from inside the five-yard line, which wasn’t just the highest rate among all quarterbacks, but good for the 10th-highest rate in all of football.
That was actually way up from his 2020 and 2021 rates of 37.5% and 31%, as Buffalo clearly relied on Allen in every facet of the game this past season. Allen now has four consecutive seasons with at least 100 rush attempts, and although he has talked about running less, I’m not sold that it will happen this season.
Dalvin Cook, RB, New York Jets
The Case for Dalvin Cook
Well, for starters, he’s on an NFL roster.
After months of some uncertainty, Dalvin Cook is now (relatively unsurprisingly) with the Jets. Many people are wondering whether Cook is still a top-tier running back after finishing 15th in fantasy points per game this past season on lackluster efficiency. According to FTN Data, 42.4% of Cook’s carries gained two or fewer yards last year, the 15th-worst rate in the league, while he was also bottom-15 in rushing yards over expected. There have been reports that Cook could be the featured back for the Jets to start the season while Breece Hall gets back to 100 percent, which means he could post RB2 production during that span. And as we know, the Jets offense is going to be much better with Aaron Rodgers under center this season, creating more scoring opportunities for everyone.
Overall, the Jets red-zone offense should be much improved, too. While Matt LaFleur handled most of the play-calling duties in Green Bay, Nathaniel Hackett (who is now the Jets OC) had a huge role with the red-zone offense, drawing up a ton of the plays from that area of the field. And while the Broncos offense was a complete disaster last year, they were still league average in red-zone conversion rate. During the 2017 season, Jacksonville converted 64% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns, the second-highest rate in the league. And it isn’t new to see Hackett’s offenses score touchdowns on a high rate when in the red zone. During his three seasons in Green Bay, the Packers ranked 2nd (67.8%), 1st (76.8%) and 18th (57.5%) in red-zone touchdown conversion rate.
The Case against Dalvin Cook
It’s pretty simple. Breece Hall is on the team and is really, really good.
Cook could open the season as the lead running back, but there will be a point where Hall takes over as likely the 1A in this backfield. I honestly think, given the fact that Rodgers and Hackett are there, we could see the Jets running backs utilized in a similar way as Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon/Jamaal Williams from their time in Green Bay. From Weeks 4-7, Hall averaged 16.25 touches, over 100 total yards and 19.2 PPR points per game, despite only playing 12 snaps before tearing his ACL in Week 7. Hall emerged into a 65-70% snap share running back, and from Weeks 1-7, he ranked third in yards after contact per attempt (4.14), third in runs of 10-plus yards (14) and second in runs of 15-plus yards (8).
I also think the Jets are going to play at one of the slowest paces in all of football this season, which isn’t the most enticing thought when it comes to fantasy football. While Green Bay’s offenses have obviously been high-scoring and incredibly efficient since Hackett has been there, they have been one of the slowest units. From 2019-2021, the Packers averaged 29.6 seconds per snap, easily the slowest pace in the league during that span. They are also sporting just a 3.6% no-huddle rate during that stretch, which is the fourth-lowest clip in football. The Packers have ranked no better than 18th in plays per game during those three seasons, as both Hackett and Rodgers are more methodical with their pace of play.
Verdict
No matter what happens between these two players this season, I can guarantee I’ll make the right call. Why? Because if I were to choose between these two running backs this year, I’m going with…
Cook.
Okay, okay. I’ll be more specific. Dalvin Cook landed in a pretty good situation, but unless Hall misses time, his ceiling is capped. James Cook, on the other hand, has a bit of an unknown ceiling, especially if this is finally the year where Josh Allen runs the football less around the goal line.
