Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
All summer long, I’m taking a look at the fantasy landscape heading into 2023 and helping drafters make some of the toughest decisions. If two players are close to one another in ADP, who should you choose? That’s the plan here. This is Fantasy Crossroads.
It’s that time of the year.
As the weather gets warmer and the summer gets closer, preparation for fantasy football takes over. Around this time last year, we launched our Fantasy Crossroads series here at FTN Fantasy where we debate two players coming off fantasy boards right next to each other, making strong cases for and against both players. The 2023 season kicks off with a matchup between an elite running back who has been dominating for years and an ascending running back who is on the rise.
Let’s get after it.
Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
The Case for Tony Pollard
Ummm… He’s really, really good?
Over the past few seasons, you would be hard-pressed to find a more efficient running back in the NFL than Tony Pollard. During the last two years, Pollard has averaged 6.2 and 5.9 yards per touch, good for second and fifth among qualified running backs. That efficiency clearly continued last year, as Pollard finished 21st among running backs in touches but 15th in rushing yards (1,007), third in rushes of 15-plus yards (17), sixth in fantasy points per snap (0.44) and first in yards after contact per attempt (3.8). His 5.1 yards per carry ranks third in all of football since entering the NFL in 2019, and despite seeing 60 more carries this past season, Pollard remained one of the best running backs in the league. The only real frustrating aspect last season was Pollard’s usage at the goal line, but that appears likely to change entering the 2023 campaign.
Ezekiel Elliott, though clearly not the player he once was, still operated as Dallas’ short-yardage running back in 2022. That led to 12 rushing touchdowns to Pollard’s nine. If that role had solely belonged to Pollard, fantasy’s RB9 could have easily entered the top five. Last season, Elliott finished with 16 carries from inside the five-yard line, the third-most in all of football. He handled nearly 70% of the Cowboys’ carries from that part of the field, converting nine of those 16 attempts into touchdowns. Pollard, meanwhile, only had six carries from inside the five-yard line. Dallas moved on from Elliott, and while they wanted to add a running back with size to complement Pollard, they instead signed Ronald Jones (5-foot-11, 205 lbs) and drafted Deuce Vaughn (5-foot-5, 179 lbs). Not only is Pollard going to see an uptick in overall touches this season, but he should be the unquestioned goal-line running back for a Dallas offense that ranked seventh in the league in points per drive this past season (2.31). Pollard is also set for an easy career-high in snaps, as he played just over 48% of the snaps this past season and only reached the 60% snap threshold twice. Simply put, Pollard is going to play more, touch the football more and see more scoring opportunities.
Oh, and if you are interested in what Pollard can do with more opportunities, just look at his three career games with Elliott out of the lineup since the 2019 season.
The Case Against Pollard
Honestly, I don’t think I can make one.
It’s possible his ADP climbs so high over the summer that some may be uncomfortable drafting him, but I have Pollard ranked as a top-seven running back at the moment with zero concerns. There’s still a chance the Cowboys actually bring back Elliott, and if they do, he could take the goal-line role, which would limit Pollard’s upside. But as of right now, that’s really the only thing that could move Pollard down my rankings.
Wheels up.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
The Case for Derrick Henry
349, 378, 303.
Those are the total carries in Derrick Henry’s last three healthy seasons, all of which were the most in football during those seasons. And since the 2019 campaign, Henry has averaged a gaudy 23.2 carries per game, comfortably the most in football during that span. This past season, Henry rushed for over 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns and finished as RB4 in fantasy. Now entering his eighth season with the Titans, there’s zero reason to believe the offensive philosophy in Tennessee will change, especially with their lack of wide receivers. Henry recorded at least 25 carries in five different games this past season, and to no one’s surprise, the Titans ranked seventh in neutral-script rush rate (49.7%). In 2021, the Titans ranked third (48.9%), fourth in 2020 (49.4%) and second back in 2019 (48.6%), so there’s no secret as to what this Tennessee offense will look like. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, only the Baltimore Ravens have sported a higher neutral-script rush rate than the Titans (49.2%).
We know Henry, even at age 29, is going to get as many carries as any running back in the league. But what’s really interesting is his involvement in the passing game. For much of his career, Henry’s minimal usage in the passing game has been maddening. Is he Austin Ekeler or Christian McCaffrey as a pass-catcher? Absolutely not. However, the Titans should simply throw him three screen passes per game and see if he breaks one. This past season, we saw a slight change, as Henry posted career-highs in targets (41), receptions (33) and receiving yards (398). The odd thing, however, is that his routes run per game dropped to 8.3, his fewest since the 2019 season. But he was targeted more and sported a career-best target per route run rate of 21%, while his 15 targets off screen passes were also the most of his career. Given the fact that he will see over 300 carries, if Henry can flirt with 30-35 receptions, he should remain inside the top-five fantasy running backs, though I admittedly have zero clue if that usage will continue.
The Case Against Henry
The case for Henry could also be the case against him. He’s seen an insane amount of work over the last few seasons and is entering his age-29 season. While the raw totals have looked good, his efficiency and advanced metrics are starting to come down. Perhaps Henry’s best attribute is his ability to break tackles, but we just saw him slide down to 19th in the league in avoided tackles per attempt (0.20). Over the last three seasons, Henry has been at 0.15, 0.20 and 0.20 avoided tackles per attempt, ranking outside the top-14 in every season since 2019. You could make the argument that Henry is slowing down a bit, but even at his age and volume, the only year he dealt with injury was 2021 when he missed eight games with a foot injury.
Secondly, while last year’s uptick in targets and receptions was great, I still don’t exactly know if we can trust it. He’s still not playing on many third downs – he was on the field for about 18% of Tennessee’s third down plays this past season, according to FTN Data, which ranked outside the top 60 running backs. Dontrell Hilliard logged 42% of the third downs, while the team also drafted Tyjae Spears in the third round of the NFL Draft.
The Verdict: Tony Pollard
It’s close between Pollard and Henry. They are just two spots apart in my rankings. However, I am leaning toward the exciting idea of career-highs in touches and snaps for one of the league’s most electric running backs in Pollard. He plays in an offense that will play at a faster pace and score more points, and after finishing as RB9 and RB28 on limited volume over the past two seasons, I can’t wait to see what he does with close to 300 touches.
