NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
All summer long, I’m taking a look at the fantasy landscape heading into 2023 and helping drafters make some of the toughest decisions. If two players are close to one another in ADP, who should you choose? That’s the plan here. This is Fantasy Crossroads.
Our Fantasy Crossroads series continues with a look at two breakout tight ends from the 2022 season. Evan Engram really benefited from a move to Jacksonville, while David Njoku finally became a full-time player in Cleveland. It led to both players becoming strong TE1 options in fantasy but who should be the starting tight end for your fantasy team in 2023?
Let’s take a look.
Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Case for Engram
After it appeared Evan Engram’s career was headed in the wrong direction, the veteran tight end thrived in Doug Pederson’s TE-friendly offense last season. Engram caught 73 passes for 766 yards and four touchdowns, and his 98 targets ranked fifth at the position. He played a huge role in this offense, ranking third among all tight ends in routes run (523) and logging 76% of the offensive snaps. Engram also ranked seventh among all tight ends in route participation, running a route on 77% of Jacksonville’s dropbacks, which helped him finish top-five among fantasy tight ends. Jacksonville added Calvin Ridley to this offense, but like I said, this is a very TE-friendly scheme. If you know anything about Pederson’s offenses in the past, then you know that the tight end has been an absolute focal point. Of course, those Eagles teams were led by Zach Ertz, who was one of the top tight ends in the NFL during that stretch. But over Pederson’s final three years in Philadelphia, tight ends accounted for 29%, 30% and 32% of the Eagles’ targets, all of which were comfortably above the league average rate during those seasons. We’ve seen Pederson’s offenses run plenty of two tight end sets. In fact, the Eagles led the league in two-tight end sets in 2018 (36%), 2019 (52%) and 2020 (35%). This past season, Jacksonville used 12 personnel 23% of the time, the 10th-highest rate in the NFL. But it didn’t stop there. The Jaguars also used 13 personnel (three tight end sets) eight percent of the time, the fifth-highest rate in football. Engram should once again rank among the top tight ends in the league in snaps and routes, which is even more exciting considering the ascending offense he plays in.
The Case Against Engram
Like many tight ends, Engram did struggle with consistency at times last season. In Weeks 13-16, Engram scored 85.7 fantasy points, which made up almost 50% of his total fantasy points for the season. But again, outside of a few tight ends, that inconsistency is going to be a problem for all players at the position. Engram could certainly lose some targets to Ridley this season, too.
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns
The Case for Njoku
With Austin Hooper gone, David Njoku took on more of a full-time role last season. He played 70% of the offensive snaps, while playing out of the slot 35% of the time. Njoku finished the year with 58 receptions for 628 yards and four touchdowns on 80 targets in 14 games.
I was really high on Njoku last season because of how often both Kevin Stefanski’s offense and the Cleveland quarterbacks target the tight end position. During Stefanski’s first two seasons in Cleveland, tight ends accounted for 27.3% and 28.0% of the team’s targets, above the league average rates. And this past season, 26.2% of the targets went to the tight end position. In Weeks 14-18 (the games with Deshaun Watson), Njoku saw a 21% target share, which isn’t too surprising. During his final three seasons with the Texans, tight ends accounted for nearly 24% of the passing touchdowns from Watson. That is pretty encouraging for Njoku, who ranked seventh among tight ends in end zone targets (7) and fourth in red zone targets (23) last season. After ranking top-11 among tight ends in yards per route run, receptions, yards after the catch and yards per target in 2022, Njoku is building momentum ahead of 2023 and is a strong TE1 for fantasy.
The Case Against Njoku
Last season, Njoku was the clear second option in Cleveland’s passing game behind Amari Cooper. Entering the 2023 season, he could still be second but is much more likely to be third than he was last season. The Browns traded for Elijah Moore, who has been heavily involved so far during training camp and the preseason. Cleveland is lining him up all over the formation and this is already an offense that shifted a bit once Watson took over at quarterback last year. But it didn’t necessarily lead to more passing volume, as the Browns ranked just 24th in neutral-script passing rate (51.6%) in Weeks 13-18. In Weeks 1-12, they ranked 22nd, sporting a 52.6% neutral-script passing rate. Perhaps Stefanski throws the football more in Watson’s first full season as the starting quarterback, however, the strength of this offense lies within Nick Chubb and the rushing attack.
The Verdict: Evan Engram
Engram and Njoku are literally back-to-back in my rankings at the moment, so this is clearly very close. Both tight ends have had wide receivers added to their offense, but Engram’s offense is going to throw the football more. And while Pederson’s and Stefanski’s offenses have both been tight end friendly over the years, Stefanski’s might be starting to shift away from it a bit with less 12 personnel. I also simply feel like Engram is going to run more routes than Njoku, which is arguably the most important thing when it comes to tight ends in fantasy football.
