NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Rookies get all the attention. They’re the flashy new piece that could be anything. And then a class of rookies comes through and they’re old news, replaced by the next flashy, new thing. But last year’s rookies aren’t gone, and in many cases, they’re going to be even better than the exciting new pieces that are just showing up.
Of course, sometimes they won’t be, and that matters too. So as we head toward training camp, preseason, and then the start of the 2022 NFL season, we’re taking a look at last year’s rookie class. What did we think about last year’s rookie class? What worked? What didn’t? And what’s the prognosis for them going forward?
Zach Wilson, QB, New York Jets
Zach Wilson was drafted second overall in the 2021 NFL Draft by the New York Jets. With this, the Jets believe they have found their franchise guy, so it was no question that he was the clear Week 1 starter. Even with plenty of concerns about his NFL readiness, the Jets believed in his raw abilities, which NFL.com outlined in its combine report, highlighting his deep and intermediate accuracy and a jump in production in college from 2019 to 2020. He had displayed good instincts evading pressure and making highlight-worthy plays.
His gunslinger mentality helped him hit tight windows, but it did have its negatives. He struggled with anticipation throws and sometimes ended up overstriding on throws, creating accuracy issues. Also, of course, the level of competition at BYU was low compared to some of the bigger-school QBs. None of that scared away the Jets, but it helped keep Wilson’s fantasy value in check. He was a late first-rounder in superflex rookie drafts. In redraft, he was an afterthought, going as QB26 and near 200 overall.
What Went Right
Not much went right for Wilson last season, as he struggled right out of the gate. As the season progressed, he began to show improvement, mainly in fantasy production. We saw these improvements after he returned from the PCL sprain that forced him out of four games Weeks 8-11. In Weeks 12-18, he averaged 14.99 points per game with only two interceptions total (none after Week 13) – significantly better than the 8.49 points he averaged in Weeks 1-7 with 9 total interceptions. He also showed some rushing ability, running for 163 yards and four touchdowns. This rushing ability was a significant reason for Wilson’s jump in fantasy points per game, as he averaged 5.1 points per game from his rushing production in Weeks 12-18.
What Went Wrong
Where to begin? Wilson had his fair share of struggles in 2021, and they were on full display early on. The biggest issue was his nine interceptions in the first six games, making people wonder if the stage may be too big for him. On top of this, he appeared very uncomfortable in the pocket, which forced him to make poor throws, resulting in a 57.8% completion percentage across the first six games – and despite his improvements in some regards later in the season, that number actually got worse (54.0%) in the second half. As a result, he ended the season with a 55.6% completion percentage – the worst mark in the NFL last season among quarterbacks who attempted 200-plus passes, and the worst since 2018. (The worst such number in the last decade belongs to rookie Josh Allen — 52.8% — and rookie Andrew Luck also appears in the bottom six, so improvement is possible.) As a result, he failed to produce a single 300-yard passing game or a game with three passing touchdowns and had multiple games under 200 passing yards.
Prognosis Entering 2022
As we head into his sophomore season, Wilson has become an intriguing fantasy asset, mainly due to the Jets devoted a lot of resources into the skill positions this offseason, adding Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall in the draft and signing C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin in free agency. As a result, Wilson has everything he needs to make a significant leap in 2022, leaving it up to him to dictate how his season goes. These additions have also created a lot of optimism around what should be a significantly better Jets offense. As a result, there’s a possibility Wilson finishes inside the top 20 fantasy quarterbacks this season. With his current ADP of QB24, he is a borderline QB3 with a high upside in redraft superflex.
When it comes to his long-term outlook, it has become less clear than a season ago, in large part due to his disappointing rookie year. There are major questions surrounding him and his abilities and whether he is the true long-term answer for the Jets at the position. With these reasonable concerns, he has become a risky player to acquire, but it has also created a perfect situation to target him in trades – especially, with a significant number of people out on him. I do think there is hope for him, but he needs to show significant strides this year, or he may become nothing more than a roster clogger. In short, I am still trying to acquire Wilson in superflex, but I would not pay a premium.
