Second-Year Scouting Report: Tyler Allgeier

Every year, rookie fever emerges, and the previous class gets pushed aside by the shiny new NFL toys. This usually results in a rookie surge of ADP, which opens up pockets of value, especially with players from the previous class who may not be as established as some long-time veterans in the league. This happens even though most fantasy analysts (and players) understand the largest leap occurs from year 1 to year 2.

Throughout the summer, FTN will be releasing second-year scouting reports to keep these players fresh in fantasy managers’ minds. The series shifts today to Tyler Allgeier, the second-year running back with the Atlanta Falcons. This article is a breakdown of Allgeier’s first season and what fantasy managers can expect from him going forward in 2023 and beyond.

Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons 

Allgeier was one of the consensus’s favorite sleepers heading into 2023. The BYU product was entering the league after producing 2,899 rushing yards and over 3,300 scrimmage yards for the Cougars. In 2020 and 2021, he led the Independents in rushing yards, while his 23 rushing touchdowns in 2021 led the nation. Impressive for a prototypical-sized NFL back with underwhelming long speed. This all earned him a spot in the NFL as the Falcons selected him with the 151st selection in the draft. 

The Falcons landing spot was one of the preferred running back landing spots last April, so we saw a slight bump in Allgeier’s stock. He was still a late second-/early third-round selection in many dynasty rookie drafts as his fifth-round draft capital didn’t exactly scream securiTy Long-term. This lack of long-term security made him great for redraft, he was likely walking into a solid role, making him the perfect late-round selection for many managers in season-long fantasy. 

What Went Wrong 

Tyler Allgeier was fairly solid for a rookie from an NFL and data standpoint, but this did not translate to a ton of fantasy points. The Falcons leaned heavily on the run game, which gave Allgeier plenty of opportunities, but he only managed an RB29 finish with 159.4 points, with a significant portion of these points coming in Weeks 15-18. Even with solid success on the ground, he struggled to find the end zone, only scoring 4 touchdowns (3 rushing, 1 receiving), He was also pretty much a nonfactor in the passing game, only catching 16 passes — though he was effective on them, with 8.7 yards per reception. 

What Went Right 

It was a nice year for Allgeier on the ground, as he topped 1,000 yards on 210 rushing attempts for an impressive 4.9 yards per attempt, more than a full yard over than the league average of 3.8. His 1,035 rushing yards led the Falcons and was 13th in the league, second among rookies. His 0.24 missed tackles per attempt was well above the 0.14 league average as he created 752 yards after contact, which was top-10 in the league last year. His 24.31 yards per attempt on explosive runs (15 yards or more) was 10th among players who had more than 10 explosive runs. His 5.2 yards per attempt against stacked boxes (8-man fronts) was fourth in the league among players who had over 20 stacked box attempts. 

Prognosis headed into 2023 

Allgeier will likely take a backseat in the Falcons’ rushing attack in 2023 to generational talent Bijan Robinson, whom the Falcons selected eight overall this year. This does not mean all hope is lost — Arthur Smith and the Falcons ran the ball 559 times in 2022, the most in the league. They averaged 4.9 yards per attempt and scored 17 rushing touchdowns, both top 10 in the league. Cordarrelle Patterson each had over 140 rushing attempts, and the team had four players over 70 attempts. If some of this work gets consolidated to just Bijan and Allgeier as a 1-2 punch, there is a path for both to be top-36 fantasy scorers. That said, I am not betting on this. Allgeier feels like nothing more than a high-end handcuff, stuck behind Robinson, but Allgeier is an injury away from top production. 

Dynasty Prognosis 

If the season-long prognosis wasn’t sad enough, it’s about to get worse. Allgeier always felt like a one-year rental with his fifth-round draft capital, and it’s likely the case. He will hold value as a high-end handcuff and likely have a few significant games where he falls into the end zone. Outside of this, Bijan Robinson will likely handle the bulk of the work, limiting Allgeier to clean up the scraps. That’s not conducive to fantasy production. He is still a hold in dynasty, but he will likely spend more time on your bench than in your lineup.