Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There’s nothing quite like the allure of a promising NFL rookie. Their unproven nature oftentimes leads to ADPs being inflated with optimism, but that same optimism tends to vanish if the player doesn’t produce right out of the gates. This volatility is stressful for many, but it presents a golden opportunity for the savvy fantasy manager who can maintain a cool head amidst the hype (or lack thereof).
After witnessing just one NFL season from a young player, fans and fantasy managers tend to believe they know what the future entails for a certain player. Even though second- and third-year breakouts are far from uncommon, players who didn’t burst onto the scene in year one quickly become afterthoughts. In this series, a few of the writers at FTN Fantasy will look back on some of the players drafted in 2021, determine what’s changed over the past year, and recalibrate their outlooks for 2022.
Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers
The price the 49ers paid to draft Trey Lance was astronomical. Despite a glaring lack of experience on the young quarterback’s resume, San Francisco gave up three first-rounders to select Lance with the hope that he could serve as their franchise guy for years to come.
Lance played just one year of college ball at the FCS level, leading North Dakota State to a National Championship and an undefeated season. In his lone season as the starter, he showcased an NFL level arm that could make every throw in the playbook en route to 2,786 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. Arguably his most impressive statistic though was the fact that he went the entire season without throwing a single interception. Despite his lack of experience, Lance showed an uncanny ability to take care of the football while still pushing it downfield and keeping the chains moving.
While the arm talent made Lance a high pick in the NFL draft, his rushing ability is what has fantasy managers salivating over his upside. In addition to the passing numbers, Lance’s combination of size, speed, and strength allowed him to tack on an additional 1,100 yards and 14 scores on the ground while serving as an integral part of the Bison rushing attack.
What Went Right
While Lance served as a backup for most of 2021, injuries to Jimmy Garoppolo opened the door for the rookie to log two starts. What should excite fantasy managers most about those two starts was the fact that Kyle Shanahan clearly wanted to utilize Lance’s rushing ability. In those two games, Lance logged 16 and 8 rushing attempts, and those attempts came both as a part of designed play calls and via scrambles. It’ll be interesting to see how (if at all) his usage in the run game changes now that he’s the full-time starter, but it’s safe to assume Lance will be a key cog in what should be a powerful 49ers’ rushing attack.
As a passer, Lance was far from polished, but he showed glimpses of his special arm talent on a few occasions. One of the biggest differences you’ll see as he takes over the offense is an increased ability to reach areas of the field that Garoppolo simply couldn’t. According to FTN’s Passing Direction Data, Garoppolo made his living in the short middle of the field where he attempted over 30.8% of his passes, whereas Lance only attempted 14.1% of his passes in that area. The sample size is small here, but early signs indicate Lance will do a much better job of forcing opposing defenses to spread themselves both horizontally and vertically:
What Went Wrong
While Lance showed flashes of brilliance during his limited work in year one, there were some negatives that need to be acknowledged as well. First off, he couldn’t beat out Garoppolo (who’s not exactly a star) in camp for the starting QB job. San Francisco’s win-now roster paired with Lance’s inexperience make this an understandable outcome, but it would have been nice to see the rookie claim the QB1 role right out of the gates.
When he did see the field, Lance’s tape showed a few worrisome traits as well. His ball placement was inconsistent and there were numerous occasions where drives came to a halt because he simply missed an open receiver. We also saw him struggle when he needed to ease off the accelerator and throw with touch. There were a few instances where he delivered fastballs on shorter routes that made life unnecessarily difficult for his intended target. In a Kyle Shanahan offense that’s all about YAC, nailing these throws on a consistent basis is going to be paramount.
Lance will need to become a more consistent player in year 2 and clean up on some of these miscues. Luckily, inconsistency is fairly common with rookies, and expecting improvement in that area isn’t unreasonable:
What to Expect: 2022
Lance’s ability to pressure an opposing defense in every area of the field with his arm while simultaneously posing a threat with his legs could prove to be a nightmare for opposing defenses. Pair that with a genius head coach/playcaller and one of the league’s best pass-catching units, and the ceiling for Lance in year one as a starter is astronomical. He feels a lot like this year’s version of Jalen Hurts, but the better supporting cast and superior arm talent make his ceiling even higher. Posting numbers somewhere between Josh Allen’s second year (18.6 PPG) and Jalen Hurts’ numbers from last season (21.4 PPG) feels like a reasonable expectation for Lance.
Currently Lance is being drafted as QB13 according to FantasyPros’ ADP, but that number has slowly been rising and may continue to trend upward as we approach draft season.
Given the league-winning upside he provides, I’ll gladly roll the dice and draft Lance inside the top 10 QBs to serve as my QB1. Relying on a first-year starter as your QB1 is a risky proposition, but QB is so deep this year that even if he doesn’t pan out, streaming remains a viable plan B.
Dynasty Outlook
Sky-high upside paired with youth (22 years old) make Lance an enticing yet risky option in dynasty formats. He has the profile to be a top-five option for years to come, but the issue is he’s priced as if he’s already achieved that status. Fantasy managers didn’t hold him for a year just to trade him away now, and adding him to your roster will likely cost you an arm and a leg. It’s worth kicking the tires on him just in case his current manager doesn’t want to stomach the risk of the unknown, but odds are Lance’s buying window is already shut.
