Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Training camp is underway, and we’re getting closer and closer to the 2023 NFL regular season. Best ball leagues have been drafting for months now and they are getting more popular now that we understand landing spots for veteran free agents and rookies.
Every year, rookie fever emerges, and the previous class gets pushed aside by the shiny new NFL toys. This usually results in a rookie surge of ADP, which opens up pockets of value, especially with players from the previous class who may not be as established as some long-time veterans in the league. This happens even though most fantasy analysts (and players) understand the largest leap occurs from year 1 to year 2.
Throughout the summer, FTN will be releasing second-year scouting reports to keep these players fresh in fantasy managers’ minds. The series shifts today to Kenny Pickett, the second-year quarterback with the Pittsburgh Steelers. This article is a breakdown of Pickett’s first season and what fantasy managers can expect from him going forward in 2023 and beyond.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett played five seasons of college football at the University of Pittsburgh, and it somehow seemed like more. Despite never throwing for more than 13 touchdowns during his first four seasons, Pickett threw a ridiculous 42 touchdowns in his final year and finished third in Heisman voting. With one phenomenal season following four mediocre ones, some were skeptical of Pickett heading into the 2022 NFL Draft, but apparently not the Steelers.
Pickett was ultimately drafted by Pittsburgh with the 20th overall pick, but he began the year as Mitch Trubisky’s backup. He eventually started 12 games as a rookie with mixed results. Despite leading the Steelers to a winning record, Pickett threw more interceptions than touchdowns and registered a lower QBR than his predecessor Trubisky. He was never really a considerable fantasy option in single-quarterback leagues, but with an improved offensive line and a strong supporting cast, fantasy managers will be looking for Pickett to make a Year 2 leap into fantasy relevance.
What Went Wrong
Pickett’s greatest downfall in his rookie season was obviously his league-worst 1.8% touchdown rate, but that’s likely tied to his unwillingness to throw the ball down field. The Steelers’ wide receivers, specifically Chase Claypool and George Pickens (and now Allen Robinson), were built for the deep ball, but Pickett’s 7.5 air yards per attempt ranked just 21st of 33 qualifying quarterbacks according to Pro Football Reference.
Considering how he often threw the ball short, one would expect Pickett’s completion percentage or general accuracy to be pretty good, but he ranked 23rd and 26th, respectively, in those metrics. Surprisingly, his deep ball completion percentage ranked in the upper quartile of all quarterbacks, so that means he was just really inaccurate on shorter throws relative to his counterparts. All of that led to just one top-12 fantasy finish in 12 starts and a higher points per dropback than only Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, Matt Ryan, Cooper Rush and Mike White. Yikes.
What Went Right
Unfortunately, not much went right for Pickett in his rookie season from a fantasy perspective. If there’s any sign of encouragement, it could lie in his rushing ability. While he’s nowhere near Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts, he rushed at least five times in half of his starts, had three games with 30-plus yards (including one with 51), and he scored three times on the ground. Pickett flashed his rushing ability in college, so if he can build on his 237 yards and bring that closer to 400, he could provide some value that his passing did not have in year one.
Prognosis Entering 2023
In year two, Kenny Pickett needs to throw the ball down the field, and he needs to find a way to get the Steelers in the end zone. According to FTN’s expected fantasy points tool, Pickett was expected to throw for an additional 12.7 touchdowns which gave him the highest percentage variance between actual and expected touchdowns in the NFL. With big-bodied end zone targets like George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth and Allen Robinson, Pickett should be able to regress to the mean and avoid a league-worst touchdown rate for the second straight season.
It’s also worth noting that the Steelers made a few moves this offseason to patch up their offensive line, but they retained offensive coordinator Matt Canada, to the dismay of many Steelers fans. Ultimately, Pickett needs to take a step forward in his development as a passer and decision-maker while Canada needs to let his second-year quarterback sling it around the yard to all the weapons he has. Because we’re in the season of absurd training camp reports, here’s a stat for you if you’re looking for a reason to buy into Pickett this season –
If Pickett and the Steelers’ offense make the leap that their roster suggests they can, then Pickett can be a serviceable QB2 in superflex leagues and a streaming option in single-QB leagues when the matchup is right. It’s hard to envision him going from a single top-12 finish to a season-long top-12 quarterback though, especially considering the issues he had with accuracy.
Dynasty Outlook
Kenny Pickett sits somewhere in dynasty purgatory, where quarterbacks have one desirable trait but not enough to make them high-end commodities. He’s relatively young, but he didn’t perform well on the field, he doesn’t use his legs enough, and he doesn’t have the raw arm talent of top-tier quarterbacks. Still, he’s tied to a great franchise that always has great skill players and always makes a push for the playoffs. Plenty of quarterbacks have taken year two or year three leaps over the past few seasons – Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence – so it might be worth holding on for this season to see if Pickett can develop into a viable fantasy option, but he shouldn’t be untouchable by any means based on the sample we have of on-field performance.
