Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
July is underway, and we’re getting closer and closer to the 2023 regular season. Best ball leagues have been drafting for months now and they are getting more popular now that we understand landing spots for veteran free agents and rookies.
Every year, rookie fever emerges and the previous class gets pushed aside by the shiny new NFL toys. This usually results in a rookie surge of ADP, which opens up pockets of value, especially with players from the previous class who may not be as established as some long-time veterans in the league. This happens even though most fantasy analysts (and players) understand the largest leap occurs from year 1 to year 2.
Throughout the summer, FTN will be releasing second-year scouting reports to keep these players fresh in fantasy managers’ minds. The series shifts today to Jelani Woods, the second-year tight end with the Indianapolis Colts. This article is a breakdown of Woods’ first season and what fantasy managers can expect from him going forward in 2023 and beyond.
Jelani Woods, TE, Indianapolis Colts
After three seasons at Oklahoma State where Jelani Woods seldom got the opportunity to showcase his talent, he transferred to Virginia for his senior season. There, he set career highs in every major receiving category as he finished with 44 receptions for 598 yards and eight touchdowns. The 6-foot-7 athletic tight end did enough in his lone season in Charlottesville to convince the Indianapolis Colts to draft him in the third round.
Like most rookie tight ends, Woods experienced highs and lows during his rookie campaign. He was thrust into a crowded tight end room, and it didn’t help that the Colts’ season quickly fell apart due in part to awful quarterback play. Still, he showed off his talent — and pure size — on several occasions, resulting in a few streamer-worthy performances. In year two, Woods will look to carve out more playing time for himself and if he does, he could surprise many in the fantasy community who aren’t drafting Woods at all as we head into August.
What Went Wrong
Simply put, Jelani Woods did not play enough to make a consistent impact for fantasy football. His 29% snap share and 32% route participation meant fantasy managers – if they dared to start Woods – were often watching Mo-Alie Cox block or Kylen Granson do some cardio. It was clear that the Colts wanted to use a TE-by-committee approach all season despite Woods demonstrating a receiving prowess that was head and shoulders above his counterparts.
When he was on the field running routes, his quarterbacks did him no favors. Indy ranked 28th in PFF’s passing grade for the season after bouncing around between Matt Ryan, Nick Foles and Sam Ehlinger. As a result, only 65% of Woods’ targets were deemed catchable per FTN Data, about 5% below the median catchable target rate for tight ends. So, he didn’t get a lot of opportunities, and when he did, they came from bad quarterbacks.
What Went Right
Despite rarely being deployed as a receiver and dealing with subpar quarterbacks, Jelani Woods made the most of his playing time. He finished eighth among tight ends in fantasy points per 100 snaps thanks in part to his big-play ability and a few touchdowns. According to FTN’s advanced receiving data, Woods trailed only Kyle Pitts and Greg Dulcich in deep target rate and aDOT, and he trailed only Mike Gesicki and George Kittle in end zone target rate among tight ends.
Although his opportunities were few and far between, they were high value. Deep targets and end zone targets are the best way for tight ends to become fantasy relevant considering the depth at the position is almost non-existent. Plus, when Woods was actually given the chance, he capitalized. He played two games with Matt Ryan where he also played at least 25 snaps. In those games, he averaged five receptions for 63 yards and over 14 PPR points per the FTN Splits Tool.
Prognosis Entering 2023
Heading into Year 2, Woods will inherit more change at the quarterback position with Gardner Minshew and rookie Anthony Richardson competing for the starting job. The outcome of that competition will have massive implications on his season. If Minshew wins the job and starts at least a few games, Woods can certainly be a viable fantasy option as Minshew significantly boosted Dallas Goedert’s value when he made a handful of spot starts in Philadelphia over the past few seasons. If Richardson wins the job, the offense will probably look completely different. Think an even more run-heavy Eagles offense with a much worse passer running the show. That’s not something that would support a tight end who sits behind second at best in the pass-catching pecking order.
Dynasty Outlook
Because of his impressive performance on a per-snap basis in his rookie season, I’m not letting go of Jelani Woods in dynasty. If Woods managers are ready to give him up, I’d even look to go out and get him. For what it’s worth, he’s listed as the number one tight end on the roster on every depth chart, and the only way he completely fails with starter-type opportunity is if Anthony Richardson is a bust and the Colts refuse to make a change. That’s certainly possible, but I think he’s a really good talent overall, so I’ll bet on that considering the lack of reliable tight ends across the fantasy landscape.
