Second-Year Scouting Report: Garrett Wilson

June is underway, and we’re getting closer and closer to the 2023 regular season. Best ball leagues have been drafting for months now, and they are getting more popular now that we understand landing spots for veteran free agents and rookies. 

Every year, rookie fever emerges, and the previous class gets pushed aside by the shiny new NFL toys. This usually results in a rookie surge of ADP, which opens up pockets of value, especially with players from the previous class who may not be as established as some long-time veterans in the league. This happens even though most fantasy analysts (and players) understand the largest leap occurs from Year 1 to Year 2. Throughout the summer, FTN will be releasing second-year scouting reports to keep these players fresh in fantasy managers’ minds. We continue our second-year scouting report series today with Jets’ star wide receiver, Garrett Wilson, and his outlook in 2023 and beyond. 

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets 

The tenth overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft, Garrett Wilson, was everything the Jets had hoped for and more, finally landing a true No. 1 option for their offense. In his first professional season, Wilson saw a team-high 147 targets, catching 83 passes for 1,103 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Wilson became the first player in franchise history to win offensive Rookie of the Year, in fact the first to even receive a single vote. There are a lot of moving pieces in New York heading into 2023, but there is no denying Wilson’s alpha status in year two.  

What Went Wrong 

After a 7-4 start to the season, firmly in the playoff picture, everything went downhill for New York, who ended the year with six straight loses. On the season, the Jets’ offense ranked fourth worst in points per game (17.4) and 25th in yards (318.2). It’s hard to put all the blame on an individual player — that said, the offense and Garrett Wilson’s production were significantly worse in the games started by Zach Wilson. With Zach Wilson under center, Garrett Wilson’s fantasy output was nearly cut in half, averaging less than four receptions (3.78) per game and failing to eclipse even an average of 50 receiving yards (49.65). 

His 8.82 PPR points per game made him unstart able, outside of a desperation flex option. 

What Went Right 

Despite posting a spectacular rookie season, Garrett Wilson’s numbers would have looked even been even better catching passes from non-Zach Wilson quarterbacks. His 17-game pace without Wilson would have resulted in 191.25 total targets (first in the NFL), 104.21 receptions (third), 1,379.21 receiving yards (sixth) and 8.5 receiving touchdowns (11th). His 17.2 PPR fantasy points per game would have ranked as the WR8 on the season. 

Prognosis Entering 2023

Calling the transition from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers an upgrade in 2023 would be an understatement. The ceiling is the roof for Garrett Wilson in dynasty and redraft leagues, with a WR1 overall finish firmly in the range of outcomes. Drafting Wilson requires a premium selection and for good reason. He is currently being drafted at the one/two turn on Underdog Fantasy (ADP: 12.9), as the WR8, which is in line with his season-long average in games without Zach Wilson.

Dynasty Outlook

Although Rodgers’ timeline in New York remains a question mark, Garrett Wilson should continue to produce well beyond his departure. He’s as “buy” as a receiver can be heading into his second season.