Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We are just two days away from the month of June, which means the countdown to the 2023 NFL season has officially started. There are exactly 100 days left until the Thursday night kickoff matchup between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs.
Best ball season is in full swing, and redraft leagues will begin shortly. As more and more fantasy managers begin drafting, this year’s rookies start to gain momentum. As the rookies gain attention, the sophomore class from last season will start to become overshadowed. Taking advantage of the prioritization of rookies over established veterans is a great edge to attack in fantasy drafts, especially when it comes to second-year players. These players often take huge strides during their second NFL season, building on their full season of NFL experience and development.
We start our Second-Year Scouting Report series today with San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy. His accomplishments as a rookie were historic, yet Purdy is being greatly overshadowed by this year’s quarterback-heavy draft class. This article will provide an overview of Brock Purdy as a rookie and how you should view him for redraft and dynasty leagues this season.
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
It was quite a season for Mr. Irrelevant of the 2022 NFL Draft. Purdy was selected by the 49ers with the last pick of the draft yet was thrust into the starting quarterback position in Week 13 after Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a foot fracture. He threw two or more touchdown passes in seven straight weeks (including the playoffs), with consecutive games of three touchdown passes against Arizona and Seattle. Purdy finished the season with the highest passer rating (108.0) of any starting quarterback. Using our FTN Stats Hub, we are able to highlight Purdy’s efficiency. Among all quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts, Purdy’s ranked tied for second in yards per attempts (8.1).
He completed an impressive 67% of his passes and operated in a San Francisco offense with receivers who are prolific in producing yards after catch. Christian McCaffrey was seventh among all running backs in yards per reception, while wideouts Deebo Samuel (eighth) and Brandon Aiyuk (17th) were both top-20 in yards after catch. Purdy also developed a strong connection with All-Pro tight end George Kittle, who ranked top 10 in air yards, red zone targets and yards after the catch.
Unfortunately, Purdy’s dream season came to an abrupt end in Philadelphia during the NFC Championship game. He tore the ulnar collateral ligament in the elbow of his throwing arm against the Eagles and was just recently cleared to begin throwing again.
Purdy’s ADP in 2023 fantasy leagues is currently hovering around 196.8, placing him as QB28. The injury has caused uncertainty about his availability, which is certainly depressing his fantasy stock.
What Went Wrong
Not much. It’s hard to imagine San Francisco expected more than Purdy provided, finishing with an 8-1 record as a starter, the only loss being the NFC Championship game when he left in the first quarter. When I hosted the San Francisco 49ers NFL Draft Team Preview Series, Brian Peacock (Locked On 49ers) clearly stated that Purdy would have been the starting quarterback if not for the injury. The lingering questions center around teammate Trey Lance. Would Purdy have even been given a chance if Lance doesn’t get hurt in Week 2?
From a fantasy perspective, Purdy did not post massive passing yardage numbers. He threw for fewer than 240 yards in six of his first eight starts and eclipsed 300 passing yards just once (Seattle). San Francisco tallied the ninth-most rushing attempts of any team last season, following a conservative game plan with the inexperienced Purdy under center. However, Purdy certainly became more comfortable as the season progressed.
What Went Right
Everything.
Purdy threw for three touchdowns, with no turnovers, in San Francisco’s dominant 38-13 win over Arizona in Week 18. He followed that with his best game of the season, another three-touchdown performance with 332 passing yards, in the 49ers 41-23 playoff victory over Seattle. Purdy ran for an additional score and finished with a passing rating of 131.9. That game showed that he was much more than a game manager, and that the 49ers had the ability to hit big plays under his guidance.
Together with the brilliant offensive mind of head coach Kyle Shanahan, Purdy operated in an offense that provided low-risk/high-upside plays. This 74-yard touchdown pass to Deebo Samuel is a perfect example.
Prognosis Entering 2023
There is still much unknown about Purdy’s injury entering the season. Will he be ready for Week 1? Week 3? Is he the starter when he is healthy? Will Trey Lance play well enough to keep Purdy on the bench?
While there is a considerable amount of risk in drafting Brock Purdy, there is also an immense upside. Few quarterbacks have San Francisco’s offensive weapons, with accomplished pass catchers at all three fantasy positions (RB, WR, TE). San Francisco is one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, currently holding the fourth-best odds (+1000) of any NFL team. Purdy’s fantasy cost is nothing more than a late-round pick in best ball formats, but he brings enormous upside. He is an excellent QB3 in best ball leagues, with top-10 upside late in the season if healthy.
If you want to gamble on that upside, the 16th/17th round of fantasy drafts is an excellent place to do it. If you choose to stream quarterbacks in your redraft league, I would make Purdy a priority pickup on waivers when fully healthy.
Dynasty Outlook
In dynasty/long-term fantasy leagues, Brock Purdy is a great acquisition. There is still enough uncertainty about his talent to suppress his value. If he returns as the starter and leads San Francisco the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, or even the Super Bowl, his value will skyrocket as a top-10 dynasty quarterback for the foreseeable future.
The 49ers have the fifth-easiest schedule per Vegas projected win totals. Things may be unclear regarding his health, but quarterbacking a Kyle Shanahan offense with multiple All-Pro weapons is a great place to reside in fantasy football.
