Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
You can generalize from a glance at my 2024 rankings. Preseason injuries make me nervous. I like star veterans after down seasons but am wary of unproven players with high hypothetical ceilings. But painting my rankings with a broad brush will miss the detail from the many hours of research that spurred my specific choices. And I would rather show you that work with annotations of my top 100 players for 2024.
You can find my complete rankings and those of every FTN fantasy ranker here. The listed ADPs are from Underdog, which uses half PPR default scoring. Note that some ranking and ADP differences are due to the latter’s best ball format.
1. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
vs. Positional ADP: 1 spot better
Hill lapped the field of regular receivers with 3.9 yards per route run in 2023. No one else beat 3.3. Hill wouldn’t need 10 targets per game to be the No. 1 fantasy receiver, but he’s seen them the last three seasons in any case.
2. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
vs. Positional ADP: 1 spot worse
Lamb wasn’t much of a touchdown scorer in his first two professional seasons. But he led receivers with 32 red zone targets in 2023.
3. Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
vs. Positional ADP: 2 spots better
The Jets made just three rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line in 2023, five fewer than any other team. And yet Hall still finished as a top four fantasy back. Imagine what he could do with a healthy Aaron Rodgers.
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