Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There are rarely many great tight ends that hit the free agent market, which may be a symptom of the fact that there aren’t many great TEs in the league to begin with, and the ones that are the best always re-sign with their original team.
2021 was a little bit different in that two above-average TEs both hit the market entering their prime. Except both of those players — Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry — were scooped up by the same team, the New England Patriots. They weren’t the only TEs to land in new spots, though, as we saw Jared Cook join the Chargers and Gerald Everett join the Seahawks, among others.
This piece will run through the fantasy implications for all the veteran TE faces in new places.
Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry both join the Patriots
The Patriots scooped up both Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry in big deals, landing perhaps the two biggest TE names in free agency (outside of perhaps Rob Gronkowski, but there was never really a thought Gronk was going to leave the Buccaneers).
The Pats tapped Smith for 4 years and $50 million while signing Henry to 3 years and $37.5 million, both averaging out to $12.5 million per year.
In fact, the $87.5 million total the Pats spent on Smith and Henry was more than every other team spend on all other TEs this free agency — combined. Given how much they spent on both players, it seems highly likely that the Patriots run a lot of 12 personnel (two TEs on the field) in 2021.
Smith has flashed promise as a talented TE, but he has never had a big year on the stat sheet. In 2020, he produced career highs across the board with 41 catches, 448 yards, and 8 TDs. The TDs are the only number that jumps off the page, and he hit a midseason slog:
On the other hand, Henry has been more prolific on the stat sheet, producing roughly 50-60 catches for 600 yards and 4-5 TDs per year over the last three seasons, despite missing a few games each season. Henry has regularly been a fantasy TE1 when on the field.
The presence of two solid, fantasy-relevant TEs on the same team is not common, so there’s not a ton of history to go off here. Everyone will naturally compare Smith-Henry to Gronk-Hernandez, but it’s really not a fair comparison. Gronkowski is the best TE of all time, and Hernandez was much closer to a WR than Smith or Henry.
All of this is to say that Smith and Henry will both be fantasy factors this season, but it may end up being a bit of a headache to figure out which one will hit and which one will miss. They are both in the tail-end TE1 range for season-long rankings with upside for more, but there’s also the potential for them to be maddeningly inconsistent.
Jared Cook joins the Chargers, his fourth new team in six years
Jared Cook signed with the Chargers and figures to be their top TE, much to the dismay of Donald Parham truthers. Cook has been a big-play TE in recent years, averaging over 13 YPC in three straight seasons with at least six TDs in those three seasons as well.
Cook is 34, however, and is with his fourth team in the last six years. His stats across the board have also slowly decreased over the last three seasons. He’s a fantasy TE2, though he is one of the better ones because of his nose for the end zone.
Gerald Everett signs with the Seahawks
The significance of this move is two-fold: For one, Gerald Everett slides to the top of Seattle’s TE depth chart and gives Russell Wilson an athletic safety valve, something he sorely lacked last season. Everett’s departure from the Rams also frees up Tyler Higbee to show whether his dominant stretch without Everett in 2019 was a fluke.
While Everett will be the top TE in Seattle, there still figures to be so few targets left over once DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are fed, that a path to weekly fantasy relevancy may be hard to find. Everett’s best hope is to emerge as a favorite red-zone threat of Wilson’s, something Jimmy Graham was able to accomplish a few years ago.
Consider Everett as one of the more interesting TE2s on fantasy draft day.
And for some of the smaller moves …
- Kyle Rudolph joined the Giants on a 2-year, $12 million deal, but outside of vulturing a few scores away from Evan Engram, there’s minimal fantasy impact.
- Dan Arnold, who plays much like a WR, has moved from New Orleans to Carolina. It’s a potential low-key notable fantasy move if Arnold can slide to the top of the Carolina TE depth chart.
