Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Mercifully, the poking, prodding and Wonderlic-ing has ceased. With player destinations finally set, this wannabe soothsayer forges ahead previewing what newly drafted contributors could accomplish in their fresh digs for fantasy/betting audiences. Today’s rookie under the microscope: Travis Etienne.
Follow along with the whole Rookie React series here.
Current fantasy ADP (PPR): 44.7, RB23
Current player props: Offensive Rookie of the Year (+2500, BetMGM)
Travis Etienne fantasy outlook
Upsides: High voltage. In a phrase, that best sums up what Etienne brings to the table. As his 4.41 40-yard dash suggests, he packs plenty of electricity. Give him an inch in space and he’ll take a mile. The man is slippery, an evasive rusher who routinely shakes defenders out of their cleats. Last season, he forced 43 missed tackles with Clemson, the 12th-highest mark in the category among Division I backs. Showcasing eagle-eyed vision, he gets skinny through tight creases. Additionally, his churn and power are underrated, evidenced by his 3.84 YAC per attempt tallied last fall. Equipped with sticky fingers, he hauled in 48 receptions in ‘20. Think of him as an unrefined Alvin Kamara.
Downsides: Parachuting into Jacksonville is akin to overshooting your intended target and landing feet-first into a Gary, Indiana, water treatment plant. It’s messy. With James Robinson and Carlos Hyde on roster — the former who as a rookie piled up 1,418 total yards and 10 combined touchdowns on 85.2% of the opportunity share — Etienne will be thrust into a committee. How unbalanced is anyone’s best guess. It’s certainly within the realm of possibility the incumbent will secure most of the red-zone work, relegating the rookie to homer-hitting to record TDs. He isn’t your classic grind-it-out-on-the-ground rusher.
What is Travis Etienne’s fantasy ceiling in Year 1?
Fearless Forecast: 163 attempts, 687 rush yards, 56 receptions, 445 receiving yards, 6 total TDs
Final word: If he brushes up against His Holiness, Tim Tebow, at any point this summer, all under bets are off. In all seriousness, though Urban Meyer may view the rusher as more of a wide receiver, his reteaming with Trevor Lawrence is a major plus. Robinson mitigates his first-year potential, but with Jacksonville’s defense projected to once again be overly generous, Etienne is set to rack the receptions, becoming a reliable RB2/flex option in 12-team PPR formats. Chalk crosses, however, could be somewhat infrequent. Avoiding his rush yards prop is advisable, but if catch offerings land anywhere in the 49.5-54.5 range, they’re worth a unit or three.
