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Prop Bet of the Day: Everything is set up for George Kittle

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Looking to scratch an action itch? You bet we got you covered. Every day our ravenous bettors scour the web for their favorite player props to boost the bankroll. Today’s featured line comes from Chris Meaney.

George Kittle OVER 1,050.5 receiving yards (-117, SugarHouse)
George Kittle, most receiving yards in league (+3700, FanDuel

These are two Kittle props I liked weeks ago and they’re more attractive with each passing day. Let’s start with Kittle’s 1,050.5 receiving yard prop. This is a number Kittle destroyed in 2018 over 16 games, racking up 1,377 yards on 88 grabs (86 yards per game). If you recall, he broke the record for the most receiving yards by a tight end that season. Regression was expected in 2019, but we didn’t see much, as Kittle totaled 1,053 yards on 85 grabs over 14 games. His 74.2 yards per game paced him out for 1,203 over a full season.

Kittle had 8.5 targets, 10.1 yards per target and 15.6 yards per catch in 2018, followed by 7.6, 9.8 and 12.4, respectively in 2019. So we did see a bit of regression after his breakout campaign, but he was more efficient in his third year in the league. I think it’s fair to say we could see Kittle get back to the 8.5 target-per-game range in his fourth season in the NFL.

We’re still a couple weeks away from Week 1, but the 49ers seem to lose someone from their receiving core with each practice. The latest was rookie wideout Brandon Aiyuk, who San Francisco took in the first round of the 2020 draft with their 25th pick. Aiyuk appeared to injure his left hamstring while running a deep route last week. He pulled up lame and limped off the field. There’s been no update on the injury since, but it certainly puts him behind what is already a big learning curve for the rook in an unusual offseason. 

This is on top of injuries to Deebo Samuel, Richie James Jr. and Jalen Hurd. Samuel is working his way back from a fractured foot, but isn’t expected to be ready for Week 1, while James is already ruled out of the opener due to a fractured wrist and Hurd is out for the year. Sure, we can give an uptick to Trent Taylor, Kendrick Bourne and Dante Pettis, but let’s be serious here. The 49ers will remain a run-first offense and the defense will be on point again in 2020, but there’s only one go-to in this offense and that’s Kittle. 

Kittle creates a mismatch in the run and pass game for SF. He’s one of the better blocking tight ends in the league and he excels in the play-action game. He runs crisp routes, his hands are phenomenal and he’s a beast in the open field as he ranks third in the NFL in yards after the catch over the last three seasons (1,724 behind Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara).

 

Kittle’s 2,945 receiving yards since he entered the league in 2017 are the most by any tight end in NFL history after three seasons, according to ESPN Stats & Info. He’s a lock to top 1,050 yards as long as he stays healthy. And lucky for him the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks — who he’ll see a combined four times this season — allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends last season. Both teams I’m sure will make adjustments, and they've added throughout the offseason, but it’s just icing on top of Kittle’s outlook for 2020.

As for his “Most Receiving Yards in League” prop: It’s just good value. It’s also something you should jump on right away at 37-1 because it may not be available for long. It’s not a prop you can find in most places and most of the odds I’ve seen at around 28-1. Our prop shop is showing great value at the FanDuel sports book at +3700. His 2,430 receiving yards since 2018 are the sixth-most in the NFL, so he’ll be in the running. 

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