Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Looking to scratch an action itch? You bet we got you covered. Every day our ravenous bettors scour the web for their favorite player props to boost the bankroll. Today’s featured line comes from Matthew Davis.
Chris Carson OVER 1050.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
DraftKings’ sportsbook currently has its rushing yards prop for Carson set at 1,050.5, which seems quite low given Carson’s previous track record. Carson has rushed for more than 1,100 and 1,200 yards the previous two seasons. The Seahawks pride themselves on running the ball, eating the clock until they’re forced to unleash Russell Wilson when playing from behind. Taking unders is usually my cup of tea, but this total is too low. Here’s why:
- Health is always an issue when placing money on an over. Missing any length of time significantly hinders your chances of cashing your ticket. Carson has been dinged in the past, missing three games over the previous two seasons. The silver lining is even when Carson has missed time, he still eclipses the current rushing yards prop. Mentioned above was Carson’s rushing totals from 2018 and 2019, averaging 1,190 rushing yards per season. During that span Carson is only second behind Nick Chubb in broken tackles (107) at the running back position. Carson is also elite when it comes to yards after contact (3.5) in 2019.
- The Seattle Seahawks are clearly looking to win now after trading away two first-round picks, a third pick and safety Bradley McDougald to the Jets for Jamal Adams. How does this impact Carson? Trading for Adams is a premium upgrade as he is one of the best defensive players in the league. Adams immediately plugs some holes in the Seahawks’ boat. His versatility on the field will certainly improve the overall competitiveness of the Seahaws, which likely leads to them not playing from behind as much. If so, Carson is going to get fed more than ever.
- Carson racked up 278 rushing attempts last season while being absent for a game. That volume was tied for fifth overall last season with Joe Mixon. The top-four were Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, Chubb and Christian McCaffrey. If you look at their rushing yards props, you’ll notice Carson is given a bit of discount from where he belongs.
- Volume is king when cashing an over and Carson gives you that along with grading out as one of the better running backs. The addition of Adams is going to be extreme as the Seahawks current win total has been pulled from DraftKings’ sportsbook. Why? Because they’re going to increase their win total. Fortunately for you they haven’t yet corrected Carson’s rushing yards prop.
All that adds up to a solid investment on a relatively modest over from a back who has beaten that number each of the last two years. Toss a few bucks Carson's way.
