MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Looking to scratch an action itch? You bet we got you covered. Every day our ravenous bettors scour the web for their favorite player props to boost the bankroll. Today’s featured line comes from Eliot Crist.
Baker Mayfield OVER 23.5 passing TDs (-112, FanDuel)
Last season, Mayfield regressed, and the Browns failed to live up to the hype. He played behind one of the league's worst offensive lines and for one of the worst playcallers in football. Coming into this season, Mayfield is a prime bounceback candidate with new weapons, an improved offensive line and a better coaching staff.
The Browns had a clear offseason goal: Get Baker the help and protection he needs to succeed. The Browns rebuilt their offensive line, adding tackle Jack Conklin and using the 10th overall pick on tackle Jedrick Wills. They also signed Austin Hooper, who finished with the sixth-most touchdowns and fourth-most yards at the tight end position, making David Njoku one of the best TE2s in football. Combine that with Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, and the Browns have one of the most talented units in all of football.
Mayfield regressed last year. He felt pressure that wasn’t there, saw ghosts, bailed out of clean pockets, and finished 35th in completion percentage from a clean pocket. This goes against everything he was in his rookie year, when he was analytically one of the best quarterback prospects in the last decade. He and playcaller Freddie Kitchens could never get on the same page. Despite having the seventh-most red zone passing attempt among QBs, he finished 16th in touchdowns. New head coach Kevin Stefanski was the offensive coordinator for the Vikings — while the team finished just 30th in pass attempts, the Vikings managed to finish with the 14th most passing touchdowns. Look for Stefanski to improve playcalling and Bakers efficiency this season.
While Baker and the Browns have improved tremendously and frankly his play can’t be much worse than last year, he still finished with 22 passing touchdowns last season. With better weapons, improved coaching staff, due for positive regression, Mayfield should cruise past his 23.5 total.
