Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Looking to scratch an action itch? You bet we got you covered. Every day our ravenous bettors scour the web for their favorite player props to boost the bankroll. Today’s featured line comes from ‘The Big Noise’ himself, Brad Evans.
Prop: Alvin Kamara OVER 1450.5 rush/receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
After physical limitations haunted Kamara like the many apparitions wandering the French Quarter in 2019, the rejuvenated RB known for his ridiculous workouts is bound to frighten the competition in a bounceback campaign. Here’s why:
- As Saints RBs coach Joel Thomas recently unveiled, Kamara not only played through a high-ankle sprain for a large chunk of last season, he also battled through knee and back setbacks. Considering the hindrances, he still managed to compile 1,330 total yards on 66.0% of the opportunity share. Let that soak in for a moment.
- Under the microscope, Kamara, despite the restrictions, continued to master the science of advanced analytics. His 3.18 yards after contact per attempt and 22.2 missed tackle percentage ranked inside the RB top-15. His contortionist moves, spatial awareness and ability to digest defender lunges instantaneously are why he’s one of the slipperiest rushers in the league, dinged or not.
- New Orleans remains a heavenly environment for RBs, especially ones with Kamara’s multidimensional skill set. The Saints offensive line, expected to be one of the league’s elite run-blocking units this fall, ranked No. 1 in fewest adjusted line yards allowed in ‘19. Additionally, thanks to the unstoppable Drew Brees-to-Michael Thomas connection, Kamara encountered eight or more men in the box just 16.3% of the time according to NFL NextGen Stats. Light fronts equal numerous exploitable opportunities.
Bottom line, blame the injury imp’s relentless grip on Kamara for last fall’s depressed production. If you decide to fly the Fleur de Lis, bank on Franklins to follow. For bettors and fantasy players alike, returning to his 2018 output (1,592 combined yds, 18 total TDs) isn’t a 10-sazeracs-in remark.
