Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The ProFootballDoc proprietary Field View and Injury Index is the best and quickest way to access injury information and identify matchup advantages broken down to run/pass and offense/defense.
Normally the grading scale goes from a typical school A thru F, but it is notable that all the playoff teams don't have a "C" grade among them. Their health is likely a reason for their success.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers
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The Buccaneers offense has had a banged-up year in regards to the talent around Tom Brady, but they’ve done a good job playing through and making an impact. Now, in the NFC Championship, there are question marks again at wideout and running back. Ronald Jones started out the week as limited with his quad and finger injuries, but there is a good chance he will play again and regain some of his touches from Leonard Fournette. Antonio Brown went down with a knee injury on his only reception versus the Saints and did not practice Wednesday or Thursday. His status is up in the air, but both Mike Evans (knee) and Chris Godwin (quad) have good chances to play and be effective. On defense, we’ll have to keep an eye on Jason Pierre-Paul (knee/NIR) and defensive backs Jordan Whitehead (knee) and Sean Murphy-Bunting (quad) as all three are starters contending with injuries. Vita Vea practice window has been opened but is unlikely to return after suffering a fractured ankle earlier in the season.
Green Bay’s offensive core is a simple one: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Aaron Jones. All three are good to go, but the depth around the skill positions does have some question marks. Running backs A.J. Dillon (quad) and Jamaal Williams (ankle) were limited to start the week, and while it is unlikely either misses time, this is worth keeping an eye on as both have been important in this offense. Wideouts Allen Lazard (wrist/back) and Equanimeous St. Brown (knee/ankle) were limited as well, and both are important wideouts across from Adams. The biggest concern here is indeed at tackle, as David Bakhtiari is out for the year and replacement tackle Jared Veldheer is on the Reserve/COVID-19 list still after missing the last game versus the Rams, but he is expected to come off the list to play against the Buccaneers. Right tackle Rick Wagner has been limited by a knee injury of his own but has played through. Guard Billy Turner has kicked out to left tackle, and while Wagner could very well push through and start, their depth outside is now paper thin. They also have some questions on the front seven. Defensive lineman Kingsley Keke missed last week with a concussion, but a limited practice this week shows good progress there. Linebackers Za'Darius Smith and Krys Barnes both are dealing with thumb injuries, and while they’re unlikely to both miss time, they could limit their effectiveness, especially Barnes who suffered a fractured thumb last week.
ProFootballDoc is the official FanDuel Injury Expert and go to www.profootballdoc.com for free in-depth playoff analysis and use the interactive Field View to see full matchup details.
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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
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Buffalo has a relatively clean bill of health coming into the AFC Championship, with only a few issues. While Zack Moss is out for the year, they still have Devin Singletary, who’s fully capable of taking the lead back role. Stefon Diggs was limited in practice to start the week with his oblique injury, but it was the same story the past two weeks, and he has had 100-yard, 1-TD performances in both playoff games so far. Gabriel Davis’ ankle held him entirely out of practice, but the Bills still have a wealth of receiving talent even if he is not available. On defense, they are looking good, but it is worth noting that Vernon Butler is dealing with a quad injury. Their pass rushers and secondary are in good shape, which is crucial as they take on Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City.
The Chiefs are managing a couple fires as they are set to host their third straight AFC Championship. First and foremost, the status of Mahomes is monumental to their game plan. Their quarterback was initially listed as a full participant with a concussion/toe tag but was retroactively changed to limited. However, even a limited practice is good news for his progress through concussion protocol, and we have even pointed to the possibility that he did not truly suffer a concussion, but a vasovagal reaction caused by a hit to his open neck. Regardless, it has been our belief that he will indeed play over Chad Henne, and he appears to be on track. Across this offense, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Sammy Watkins are progressing in their returns, but there are still questions across this offensive line as they are playing without three of their starters. With Mitchell Schwartz, Kelechi Osemele and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif out, they have had to plug in depth players, and this is something Buffalo could exploit. On defense, Willie Gay has yet to practice with his ankle injury, and corners Bashaud Breeland (concussion/shoulder) and Rashad Fenton (foot) were limited to start the week.
ProFootballDoc is the official FanDuel Injury Expert and go to www.profootballdoc.com for free in-depth playoff analysis and use the interactive Field View to see full matchup details.
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