Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After a Week 4 where we were blessed with a pair of Monday night games, we’re back to the normal schedule and have one game to focus on for Week 5’s Monday, as the New Orleans Saints host the Los Angeles Chargers. The game carries a 50.5-point implied total with the Saints favored by a touchdown (via DraftKings SportsBook), setting up a favorable game script for the New Orleans ground game and the Los Angeles aerial attack. With that said, my focus for this article will be identifying the best options for PrizePicks for the game.
Speaking of “PrizePicks,” it’s a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production.
The format is simple. You pick two, three, or four players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total.
When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)
As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option that still rewards you for hitting some of your picks, only with a lesser payout.
I will provide a trio of picks that I think carry value Monday, as well as a list of some other options to consider on the slate.
The scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
Projected score: 22; the pick: OVER
22 is an astronomical goal for any skill position, but Kamara has been posting astronomical numbers all season. In fact, before the Sunday games, Kamara ranked as a top-10 receiver (yes, top-10 among wide receivers as a running back) in PPR formats solely based on his production in the passing game, independent of his rushing. He’s logged 35 total targets in four games (over eight per game), while his seven total touchdowns are already two more than he recorded in all of 2019 and ranks fifth in the NFL in opportunities per game (21.2, 35.1%). The Chargers are a tough matchup on the ground, as they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs through four weeks, but they come in as 7-point underdogs against the Saints, setting up for positive gamescript for Kamara. With Michael Thomas out once again, an elite level of opportunities and positive gamescript all working in his favor, Karama feels like a strong bet to record over 22 PPR points for the fourth time in five games.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Projected score: 18.0; the pick: OVER
A rookie quarterback against a typically stout secondary? You bet. Marshon Lattimore is listed as questionable for the Saints Monday, but Janoris Jenkins has been ruled out, dealing a blow to a secondary that has been downright disappointing to start the 2020 season.
The Saints secondary has allowed 11 passing touchdowns (tied for a league-leading 8.03% touchdown rate through four weeks) and have allowed a quarterback to top 20 fantasy points in all four games so far this season. Herbert is averaging roughly 36 pass attempts and over 20 fantasy points per game in his three starts and the absence of Austin Ekeler could actually help his ceiling here, given the fact that he may be forced to look downfield more often.
With a questionable running game against a stout front seven in a 50.5-implied-point game, Herbert will be working with favorable gamescript as the 7-point underdog against what has been a porous secondary so far, making this a sneaky spot for him to smash.
Tre'Quan Smith, WR, New Orleans Saints
Projected score: 10.5; the pick: UNDER
Taking the under here might not be the most mind-easing option here after seeing his upside last week, but everything points to regression in Week 5.
Smith has been a beneficiary of Michael Thomas’ absence, but has still failed to top 60 yards in all but one game this season and, while he operated as a primary red-zone threat last week in the absence of Jared Cook, the veteran tight end is hopeful to suit up Monday after logging a week of limited practices. On top of that, Smith draws a brutal individual matchup with Desmond King, amounting to a matchup grade of 33.7 out of 100 per Jeff Ratcliffe’s WR/CB matrix. King has only allowed 0.29 fantasy points per route covered this season, 19% less than Smith averages per route run.
If Cook is confirmed active for Monday’s game, Smith’s red-zone upside takes a dramatic hit, while his overall target share takes a hit as well. Couple that in with a brutal individual matchup, and there’s a strong chance he’s kept out of the end zone, making the u10.5 an enticing play.
Other options: Emmanuel Sanders (o10.0), Keenan Allen (o8.5 — FIRST HALF), Alvin Kamara (o11.0 — FIRST HALF), Joshua Kelley (u12.7)
