PrizePicks picks for NFL Week 2 — Monday Night Football

After a bloodbath of a Sunday around the NFL, we’re left with one final game on PrizePIcks Monday night to close the books on Week 2, as the Saints travel to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. Even without Michael Thomas on Monday, Vegas is expecting fireworks as the total for the game sits at 48.5 (per DraftKings Sportsbook) with the Saints favored by less than a touchdown (5.5).

My focus for this article will be around a site called “PrizePicks,” a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production.

The format is simple. You pick two, three, or four players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total.

When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:

• Two-pick entry pays 2.5x (max entry: $400)
• Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
• Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)

As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option that still rewards you for hitting some of your picks, only with a lesser payout.

I will provide a trio of picks that I think carry value Monday, from both the overall pool of selections as well as the 1st-half contests that PrizePicks offers, as you have the ability to combine the entries.

The scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints (@ LV)

Projected score: 18.5; the pick: OVER

While certainly not the Brees of old, the future Hall of Famer is still one to fire up when the right matchup presents itself, which happens to be the case Monday night. He’ll be down his top receiver with Michael Thomas dealing with a high ankle sprain and while he accounted for 185 of the 292 wide receiver targets in 2019, Brees has enough weapons without him to post competent numbers. The Raiders allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns in 2019 (33) while finishing 31st in overall pass DVOA. There’s the worry the Saints could pound the ground here, but even so, the Raiders also allowed over eight yards per pass attempt in 2019, showing it may not take 50 pass attempts to get to Brees’ target score. Even if the Saints opt to run the ball more than usual, this matchup combined with the game environment that Vegas predicts (high-scoring, close game) sets up for a nice game for the veteran quarterback. 

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints (@ LV)

Projected score: 10.2 (first half); the pick: OVER

Kamara’s full-game line is 21.0 points — a high number for a running back, yes, but certainly attainable. But his first-half target seems even safer. He managed to top this number in Week 1 against a stout Buccaneers run defense while managing only 16 yards on 12 attempts and was still involved in the passing game, hauling in five catches on eight targets. In Week 2, both of these numbers could balloon and his two-touchdown performance is one that has the potential to be replicated. 

The Raiders made a point to bolster their defensive line in the offseason after allowing only 3.8 yards per carry last season, but they struggled against running backs in the passing game, allowing almost seven yards per target, which was still a glaring weakness last week when they allowed 134 total yards and a pair of scores to Christian McCaffrey. 

Kamara should be relied upon early and often with Thomas out and with double-digit target upside, it’s hard to imagine him not topping 10.2 PPR points in the first half, as the Saints scored 17 points in the first half last week and ranked fifth overall in 2019 in first-half points per game at 14.1.

Jared Cook, TE, New Orleans Saints (@ LV)

Projected score: 5.8 (FIRST HALF): the pick: OVER

Following the theme of the first-half pick, Cook’s total for the first half of Monday’s game feels far too low. With Michael Thomas last week, Cook attracted seven targets (second on the team, 22.6% target share), catching five for 80 yards. His strengths also correlate hand-in-hand with the weaknesses of the Raiders defense, as he averaged over 10 yards per catch last season, the same season in which the Raiders allowed over 12 fantasy points per game to the tight end position. On top of that, the Raiders allowed the sixth-most touchdowns to tight ends (seven) and the third-most targets in goal-to-go situations (10). 

With Thomas out of the game Monday, there’s 33% of the target share (2019 rate) that has opened up, providing Cook with ample opportunity to capitalize on a vulnerable secondary. All he needs in the first half to do so is two to three catches for 20-30 yards, which seems like one of the most attainable goals of the night.