Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After a mostly successful Week 1 in the NFL in DFS and in our PrizePicks picks, we’re onto Week 2.
In case you are new here, every Friday I will be posting some of my favorite props over at PrizePicks. If you haven’t played over at PrizePicks yet, it is simple. Choose whether you believe a player goes over or under their given prop. You pick in groups of two, three or four, with players getting a larger payout for larger parlays.
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x
- Three-pick entry pays 5x
- Four-pick entry pays 10x
And now we move to Week 2…
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys (vs. ATL)
Projected score: 14.5 points; the pick: OVER
This game between the Cowboys and Falcons has plenty of shootout potential. The over/under currently sits at 53.5 points and, perhaps most importantly, the game is in Dallas. I get that home-field advantage isn’t going to be what we’re accustomed to this season — but since joining the Cowboys, Cooper has smashed in Dallas. Using the FTN Splits tool, you can see that since being traded to Dallas, Cooper is averaging 6.06 receptions, 97.8 receiving yards and 21.5 fantasy points per game at AT&T stadium.
As for the matchup, Atlanta allowed both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf to reach 90 receiving yards last week, while Metcalf found the end zone.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers (vs. DET)
Projected score: 18.0 points; the pick: OVER
This is a pretty big number, but this Lions defense honestly doesn’t have a prayer against the Packers this weekend. Detroit is likely to be without two of their top three corners in Justin Coleman and Desmond Trufant, which should allow Aaron Rodgers and company to drive up and down the field. In Week 1, Jones logged 54% of the snaps, while handling 16 of the 28 running back carries. His red-zone usage was promising, as not only did Jones see two carries from inside the 5-yard line but he also saw two targets from inside the 10-yard line. The Lions, meanwhile, are a great matchup, as after stuffing just 12% of carries at the line of scrimmage last year (32nd), Detroit stuffed the Bears just 5% of the time in Week 1. I expect the Packers to do whatever they want offensively here, and Jones has himself a multi-touchdown game.
D.J. Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers (@ TB)
Projected score: 14.0 points; the pick: UNDER
I had Moore projected to go over his total last week and that didn’t work. He did see nine targets, but the efficiency wasn’t there. Heading into a tough matchup with the Buccaneers, I’m going with the under this time. Tampa Bay’s run defense gets the recognition, but this pass defense is emerging, led by an ascending cornerback trio of Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting. Dating back to the end of last season, the Buccaneers have shut down opposing top receivers. Take a look at the last four “No. 1” wideouts to face them:
Kenny Golladay: 3-44-0
DeAndre Hopkins: 5-23-0
Julio Jones: 7-78-0
Michael Thomas: 3-17-0
Melvin Gordon, RB, Denver Broncos (@ PIT)
Projected score: 13.5 points; the pick: UNDER
If Phillip Lindsay (turf toe) can’t play in this game, Gordon should see 18-20 touches. However, how valuable are those touches going to be against the league’s best run defense? On Monday, the Steelers stuffed over 50% of the Giants runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, while Saquon Barkley averaged an insane -0.5 yards before contact per attempt. PrizePicks is a full PPR site, so Gordon could haul in four or five catches and help in that department, but this is arguably the worst matchup for any positional player in all of fantasy football right now.
