PrizePicks picks for NFL Week 14

Hopefully you made the playoffs in your fantasy football league, but if you didn’t, there’s always PrizePicks to satisfy your fantasy hunger. Today we’re looking at some of the top PrizePicks plays for Sunday’s slate.

If you haven’t played over at PrizePicks yet, it’s simple. Choose whether you believe a player goes over or under their given prop. You pick in groups of two, three or four, with players getting a larger payout for larger parlays.

• Two-pick entry pays 2.5x
• Three-pick entry pays 5x
• Four-pick entry pays 10x

Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.

A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans (@ JAX)

Projected points: 15.5; the pick: OVER

This is now the third week in a row where Brown has made this column, but he continues to find himself in very interesting spots. In Week 13, Brown left a lot of points on the table, fumbling twice, including once when he was a footstep away from crossing the goal line. I’m going with the over here in an absolute smash spot against the Jaguars, who have allowed a receiver to go for at least 100 yards in each of their last eight games. Just take a look at what they have allowed to opposing wideouts as of late:

• Justin Jefferson: 9-121-1
• Jarvis Landry: 8-143-1
• Diontae Johnson: 12-111-0
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 4-149-1
• Will Fuller: 5-100-1
• Keenan Allen: 10-125-0
• Kenny Golladay: 4-105-0
• Brandin Cooks: 8-161-1

Sheesh.

Jacksonville is also coughing up the most yards after the catch in the NFL (1,722), while Brown trails only Deebo Samuel in yards after the catch per reception at 7.8. Opponents are also scoring on 47.1% of their possessions against the Jaguars, good for the third-worst rate in football. Jacksonville’s run defense has also been a bit better as of late, so if Derrick Henry doesn’t dominate here, the Tennessee passing game should be able to do whatever it wants.

Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys (@ CIN)

Projected points: 14.0; the pick: UNDER

This one is insanely close, but I’m slightly leaning toward the under. Dallas’ offense is much better with Andy Dalton under center than it was with Garrett Gilbert and Ben DiNucci, but this is still an average-to-below overall unit. Cooper gets the toughest individual matchup against an otherwise bad Bengals defense, as he’ll likely see shadow coverage from William Jackson, who shadowed DeVante Parker last week on nearly 80% of his routes, holding him to two catches for 17 yards on six targets. Jackson is 11th among all cornerbacks in fantasy points allowed per coverage snap (0.27) and I see this as more of a Michael Gallup game, who is the deep threat in this offense. That bodes well when facing a Cincinnati defense that ranks dead last in pressure rate on the season at 17%.

Kenyan Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals (@ NYG)

Projected points: 12.0; the pick: OVER

Kyler Murray has been dealing with a shoulder injury over the last three weeks and clearly isn’t 100%. During that three-game stretch, Murray has 15 total rushing attempts and just two carries from inside the 5-yard line. He also ranks 23rd among all signal callers in average depth of target during that span (7.0 yards) Meanwhile, Drake has been more involved, leading all running backs with 10 carries from inside the five-yard line during that same stretch, while seeing a healthy 12 targets, as Murray has been more reluctant to take off and run and more willing to check it down. If Drake finds the end zone once, he should be able to eclipse this number. Meanwhile, the Giants are allowing 5.1 yards per attempt over their last three games, the second-most in football during that stretch.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs MIN)

Projected points: 14.0; the pick: OVER

Obviously, keep an eye on Evans’ status for this game. He is dealing with a hamstring injury and didn’t practice Thursday. But if he can suit up, I love the over for him in this spot. Despite the return of Chris Godwin and addition of Antonio Brown, Evans has scored four touchdowns over his last three games and now gets a matchup with Minnesota, who has allowed the third-most fantasy points (14.0), fourth-most receiving yards (63.8) and second-most touchdowns (0.6) per game to opposing receivers lined up on the left side of the formation, per the FTN Advanced DVP tool. Meanwhile, Evans has been moved around the formation a lot more as of late but is on the left side the most. And if Evans gets ruled out, just pivot to Godwin’s line and smash the over. He’s a great play regardless but if Evans sits, look out.