Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Week 11 of the NFL and fantasy football season is shaping up to be a very interesting one. Injuries appear to be the headline, with a handful of star players missing practice time this week. Of course, the injuries aren’t a massive headache over on PrizePicks where you are strictly picking the over or under on props for players.
If you haven’t played over at PrizePicks yet, it’s simple. Choose whether you believe a player goes over or under their given prop. You pick in groups of two, three or four, with players getting a larger payout for larger parlays.
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x
- Three-pick entry pays 5x
- Four-pick entry pays 10x
Let’s look at Week 11, shall we?
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Mike Davis, RB, Carolina Panthers (vs. DET)
Projected score: 13.0 points; the pick: OVER
This game between the Panthers and Lions is really ugly due to the plethora of injuries, but Davis remains a strong option. Christian McCaffrey will miss another game with his shoulder injury, allowing Davis to once again operate as the lead back. His Week 10 line wasn’t impressive, though he was facing an elite Tampa Bay run defense, while also missing some time with a minor arm injury. Davis is healthy and hosts an awful Lions run defense that just surrendered three touchdowns to the duo of Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic a week ago. They are now coughing up 1.8 rushing scores per game on the season, the most in the NFL, while Detroit is also allowing a touchdown on over 72% of opposing red zone trips, the seventh-worst rate in the league. It is fair to question if the Carolina offense takes a step back if Teddy Bridgewater isn’t under center, but Davis’ role shouldn’t change regardless of who the quarterback is.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens (vs. TEN)
Projected score: 11.0 fantasy points; the pick: OVER
It has definitely been a disappointing season for Andrews in 2020, as the All Pro tight end is seventh at the position in fantasy points per game, while reaching 60 yards just once all season — last week’s loss against the Patriots. The opportunity has been there, however, as Andrews is fourth among tight ends with a 22% target share and now Nick Boyle and his 66.7% snap share need to be replaced. Andrews should be on the field more going forward and he gets a nice matchup with a Titans team that has struggled against practically any tight end that is somewhat involved in their team’s offense. Take a look at some notable games opposing tight ends have had against Tennessee:
Jimmy Graham: 6-55-1
Eric Ebron: 6-50-0
Darren Fells: 6-85-1
Noah Fant: 5-81-1
Tyler Eifert: 3-36-1
Clearly, they haven’t faced many high-end tight ends this season yet have still allowed not only a ton of production but a ton of touchdowns. The Titans are also allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 74.2% of their red zone trips this season, good for the fifth-worst rate in football. Give me the over for Andrews this week, who will have one of his best games of the year.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans (@ BAL)
Projected score: 17.0 points; the pick: OVER
Henry hasn’t been great over the last two weeks, failing to find the end zone during that stretch. However, things are trending in the right direction for him this week, as the Ravens have been struggling to slow down the run as of late, allowing 4.4 yards per carry over the last three weeks. They just allowed 121 yards to Damien Harris last week and could be without both Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell on that defensive line, which is extremely notable. Consider that Williams missed a handful of games in the beginning of the 2019 season and the Ravens run defense took a hit, allowing some huge games to running backs, including a 20-165-3 line to Nick Chubb, a similar player as Henry. And as my colleague Derek Brown points out in his five must-know stats for Week 11, the Ravens are allowing nearly 102 rushing yards per game since Week 6.
Todd Gurley, RB, Atlanta Falcons (@ NO)
Projected score: 13.5 points; the pick: UNDER
Gurley is still getting solid volume and has been salvaging his games with short-yardage touchdowns. However, he has not run the ball well at all, especially as of late, as Gurley has been under three yards per carry in each of his last four games. Now he faces an elite Saints run defense that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in over 50 consecutive games, while just 20% of the touchdowns surrendered by this unit have come via the run, which is tied for the lowest rate in the NFL. Gurley is also only catching about one or two passes (at most) each week and unless he falls into the end zone twice from a yard out, I am not expecting a productive day in this spot.
