Prime-Time Props -- Thursday Night Football, Week 11

We have an NFC East divisional showdown in Philadelphia Thursday, as the 7-3 Washington Commanders visit the 7-2 Philadelphia Eagles. I have put together a five-leg same-game parlay for this one. Let’s get into the plays.

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

(Eagles -3.5, O/U 49.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Terry McLaurin 50+ Receiving Yards

McLaurin has been the focal point of the Washington passing game, leading the team in receiving yards, touchdowns and target share (21.4%). Per the FTN StatsHub, McLaurin is averaging 6.6 targets and 71.1 receiving yards per game. He’s exceeded 50 receiving yards in his last seven out of eight games and has dominated the Eagles, clearing at least 50 receiving yards in six straight head-to-head meetings, averaging 81.8 yards per game.

Zach Ertz 3+ Receptions

Ertz has exceeded three receptions in eight out of 10 games this season, averaging 3.7 receptions per game. Per the StatsHub, Ertz has been a consistent secondary option in the Washington passing game, ranking second on the team in target share (17.5%), snap share (62.2%) and route participation (79.3%). The Eagles have allowed an opposing tight end to clear at least three receptions in six of their last eight games.

Brian Robinson Jr. 25+ Rushing Yards

Robinson returns after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. He has cleared 25 rushing yards in six out of seven games this season, averaging 65.7 yards per game. In three career head-to-head meetings with the Eagles, Robinson has exceeded 25 rushing yards in each game, averaging 63.3 yards per game. The volume Robinson gets will set him up nicely to clear this number, he’s averaging 14.7 rushing attempts per game this season.

A.J. Brown 5+ Receptions

Brown has caught at least five passes in five out of six games this season, averaging 4.7 receptions per game. Per the FTN DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against Tool, the Commanders’ defense allows opposing WR1s to produce at a rate 38% above the league average, which ranks third worst in the NFL. Brown has cleared receptions in three of his last four head-to-head meetings against the Commanders, averaging 5.8 receptions per game.

DeVonta Smith 50+ Receiving Yards

Smith has exceeded 50 receiving yards in six out of eight games this season, averaging 60.9 yards per game. Smith leads the Eagles’ receiving group in target share (18.9%), route participation (81.5%) and snap share (77.2%). He’s played well against Washington, exceeding 50 yards in the last four out of six head-to-heads, averaging 79.8 yards per game.