Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Green Bay Packers seem to have righted the ship after a dominating home win over the Lions Monday, but now they have to travel to the West Coast and face another NFC contender in the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners are 2-0 this season with wins over the Lions and Eagles and return home for their first game of the year at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers opened as 3-point home favorites for their matchup with the Packers.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco Week 3 odds
Date/Time: September 26, 8:20 p.m. ET
Arena: Levi’s Stadium
How to watch: NBC
Opening odds: 49ers -3 | O/U 48 (BetMGM)
Latest Packers-49ers odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here they are.
Opening odds – Packers vs. 49ers
After opening as 3-point home faves in Week 3, the 49ers moved to 3.5-point chalk as they get set to host the Packers Sunday night. Early betting action is on the Packers to cover the spread so this line may move back to SF -3 by the time we get to kickoff.
The total opened at 48 and with primetime overs going 6-0 so far this season, and the early betting has led public/sharps to another over bet with over 90% of handle on it.
Quarterback analysis – Aaron Rodgers vs. Jimmy Garoppolo
Aaron Rodgers cooled off his critics at least for one week thanks to four passing touchdowns against the Lions, but we’ve seen this script before and Rodgers in San Francisco has sometimes been a disaster. In 2019, Rodgers faced the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium during the season and in the NFC Championship game and he looked awful in both. Three passing touchdowns and two interceptions doesn’t seem so bad, but if you recall about those two contests, it wasn’t even close. SF won both games by a combined score of 74-28 thanks to their punishing rushing attack. I’m not saying we’ll see a repeat performance, but if Week 1 of 2021 and 2019 are any indication, it could get ugly in San Francisco. Yes, Rodgers rebounded in 2020 with a 34-17 win in San Francisco, but he was facing a Niners team destroyed by injury and using a backup QB.
As for Jimmy Garoppolo, he’s doing his best “bend don’t break” act as quarterback for the Niners and is limiting mistakes. In two games, he has yet to throw an interception and only has been sacked once. His passing numbers are below average as the 49ers lean on their run game. It’s also worth noting in those two games vs. GB in 2019, he only threw 28 passes, was sacked once and had no interceptions.
Latest Packers betting news & info
After four passing touchdowns and having running back Aaron Jones score four times himself, the Packers offense looks to be clicking again. One of the more encouraging notes in Week 2 for Green Bay was how involved WR Davante Adams was. The All-Pro had eight catches for 121 yards and in order for the Packers to beat the Niners, Adams needs to be dominant. In 2019 in those two 49ers blowouts, he was able to get yards but only managed to score once.
Stopping San Francisco’s run attack will be the key to the game and through two games, the Packers have allowed 275 rushing yards vs the Saints and Lions, which ranks 28th in the NFL. If Green Bay can play tight defense and have DE Za’Darius Smith back in the lineup, they’ve got a shot to cover the spread and potentially win outright at Levi’s Stadium.
Latest 49ers betting news & info
Although they’re almost to the point of bringing RB Frank Gore out of retirement to run the ball, the San Francisco 49ers have to be feeling good going into Week 3 against the Packers. Their defense has been strong through seven of eight quarters (we’ll give them a mulligan for the fourth quarter vs. the Lions) and just got done holding the Eagles to 11 points on their home field.
Where it gets tricky for the Niners is at quarterback, as head coach Kyle Shanahan rotated between Jimmy G and Trey Lance in Week 1 — though Lance didn’t see any time in Week 2. If they rotate Lance in in Week 3, it’ll either be a genius move because it confuses the opposition or a bonehead decision because the 49ers offense can’t get comfortable. It did work out in Week 1, but Week 2 showed Shanahan might also just stick with one QB.
The 49ers failed to cover the spread in Week 1 even though they led by 20 to start the fourth quarter, and they managed to cover in Week 2 in Philadelphia. Recency bias may push bettors to the Packers, but for anyone who has been following football in recent years, the 49ers have owned Green Bay on the West coast.
Packers vs. 49ers betting picks – NFL Week 3
While most of the public action is on the Packers +3.5, I can’t back Green Bay in this spot. I’ve seen this movie enough times with the Pack going into a hostile road environment and laying an egg. I know some bettors will point to the 2020 matchup, but Green Bay was supposed to win that game with Nick Mullens at QB for the Niners. Garoppolo is much more reliable than Mullens will ever be. I may not end up putting money on the spread and grabbing the OVER as I expect both offenses to combine to score at least 50 points Sunday night.
Here are our betting picks for Packers vs. 49ers in Week 3.
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