NFL Worst Record Betting Odds

When it comes to handicapping the NFL, the successful mantra is to pick winners (obviously), but one NFL futures market goes against the grain for that mindset, and that’s picking a team to finish with the worst record in the league. Well, only one team fits the criteria of looking like a complete trainwreck and that’s the Houston Texans, who are the betting favorite for NFL worst record odds.

The Houston Texans sit as the overwhelming betting favorite at +200 on BetMGM for NFL worst record odds with nearly every analyst and betting expert projecting them to finish in the basement of the league standings. The Texans aren’t expected to have quarterback Deshaun Watson back anytime soon and have purged most of the high-end talent they had for pitiful draft pick compensation. After going 4-12 last year, there’s a very real possibility of an 0-17 finish.

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After the Texans are the Detroit Lions at +400, who went 5-11 last season and are starting over with a new quarterback and head coach. The Lions swapped longtime QB Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff of the Rams and will have Dan Campbell as the sideline boss. Detroit’s offensive weapons are mostly retreads but have a competent offensive line and defense. In the NFC North, they’re clearly the last-place team based on roster.

The third team on the list is the New York Jets (+800), who had the second-worst record last season and like the Lions, are starting over with a new QB and coach. The bad luck for the Jets has continued in the offseason with prized free agent DE Carl Lawson lost for the year with an Achilles injury. Fade accordingly.

What team will finish with the worst record in the NFL in 2021?

Here are the odds each team has to finish with the league’s worst record in 2021, according to BetMGM.

Why are the Houston Texans the favorite for NFL worst record odds? 

I won’t be using this space to debate or discuss the Deshaun Watson allegations, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention how much the quarterback’s absence will severely impact the Houston Texans in 2021. Watson finished last season with the most passing yards in the NFL, and if it wasn’t for him, there’s a good shot the Texans would’ve gone 0-16.

Houston is in an unfortunate position where they mismanaged their roster and draft capital over the last three seasons, and the product they currently have is the result: A team with a decent starting left tackle in Laremy Tunsil and not much else to show for it. Looking over the 2021 schedule, it’s hard to project many wins with this unit.

At best, the Texans have four winnable games on their schedule with the Jacksonville Jaguars (twice), the Carolina Panthers and New York Jets. Any other game is against a higher-quality team or on the road in a hostile environment. With a bottom-five defense (29.1 points per game allowed) and Tyrod Taylor being trotted out at quarterback, +200 odds for such a historic mark almost doesn’t seem as far-fetched for NFL worst record odds.

Long-shot bet for odds to finish with worst record in NFL 

Seattle Seahawks NFL worst record odds: +12500

OK, so before you close this page and immediately dismiss me as an incompetent betting analyst, hear me out: The Seattle Seahawks could be in massive trouble if anything happens to quarterback Russell Wilson. 

I know the counterargument is “Yeah, but you can say that about any good team with a great quarterback” but I beg to differ, because of the backup quarterback options to those teams and the roster supporting them. Geno Smith is the backup QB for the Seahawks, and while I won’t dive too deep into his playing time in the NFL, the fact remains he’s got a 29:36 TD:INT ratio and a 13-22 record as a starter. And it’s worth noting eight of those wins came in his first year in the NFL with the Jets. Not great, Bob.

Then when you look at the Seahawks roster and see how it’s completely built around Wilson’s skillset, it makes me uneasy to think how hard this team could sink if anything happens to the pro bowl quarterback. On top of being one of the worst pass defense teams in the NFL last year (ranked 31st in passing yards allowed), they’re offense relies too heavily on Wilson’s passing ability (third in passing touchdowns in 2020). 

There’s a reason this is a longshot bet with an implied probability of less than 1%. That said, outside of the Seahawks or maybe the Falcons, no other team could be screwed over more if an injury happens to its starting QB.

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