NFL Usage Report for Week 12: The League’s Confounding Backfields

In this week’s usage report, I’m testing out a different format and simply looking at a handful of backfields that will make or break your fantasy playoffs. Everyone knows the running back position is the trickiest to pin down and can completely swing your season, so getting ahead of some late-season usage shifts could wind up winning you your league. With that being said, let’s look at the four most pivotal backfields we need to monitor down the stretch.

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

While Cowboys fans and fantasy managers will bang the table for Tony Pollard to fully usurp Ezekiel Elliott on the depth chart, inside the Cowboys organization they seem intent on keeping Zeke No. 1 in the pecking order. We’ve seen Pollard explode in fantasy lineups in recent weeks with Zeke sidelined due to injury. More importantly, this past week against the Vikings was Zeke’s first game back from injury, and he was outsnapped by Pollard 39-21. Both backs found the end zone twice on the day, so all fantasy managers were happy, but is this what we should expect moving forward?

I lean no. 

As great as Pollard has looked, the key decision makers in Dallas love what they have in Zeke. The way Pollard’s looked recently has certainly warranted more touches, but it’s hard to have concrete takeaways from the 40-3 beat down the Cowboys just handed the Vikings. This past week was likely a ramp up week for Zeke, and I expect closer to a 50/50 split with Zeke getting the majority of the goal-line work from here on out. 

Leonard Fournette vs. Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Another story of fans wanting the younger guy to usurp the OG is popping up in Tampa Bay. The Bucs have largely underwhelmed this year, and in recent weeks Rachaad White has provided a spark the team desperately needed. Still, White’s been outsnapped by Leonard Fournette in every game but one this year, and even that one can be attributed to a hip injury Fournette suffered in Week 10. 

Heading into Week 12, Fournette is practicing in a limited fashion and appears in line to once again lead the Bucs backfield. They may ramp him up slowly upon his return, but the Bucs are going to be a playoff team led by Tom Brady. Throughout his career, Brady’s always wanted a vet alongside him in the backfield. Even though White may be carving out a role for himself, he should be more of a true No. 2 than a 1B down the stretch. From a fantasy perspective, this feels like a great buy-low window on Fournette.

D’Andre Swift vs. Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions

Raise your hand if you had Jamaal Williams leading the league in rushing touchdowns (12) through 11 weeks on your bingo card.

No one? 

OK, me neither. 

Williams has been on an absolute tear this fantasy season, and it has D’Andre Swift managersin shambles. It hasn’t just been since injury that Swift’s usage has underwhelmed either. Week 1 was his highest snap share of the season (67%) and it’s been all downhill from there as he hasn’t eclipsed the 60% mark since.

Meanwhile, it may feel as though Williams has stepped into a lead role as he’s accumulated all these fantasy points, but only once this season has he eclipsed the 50% snaps threshold (61% in Week 9). While the production has been fantastic, banking on this touchdown rate (12 on just 159 attempts) just doesn’t feel sustainable. I’d sell high on Williams before the touchdown regression starts to kick in. 

Najee Harris vs. Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

There were many rumblings coming out of Pittsburgh’s Week 9 bye that Jaylen Warren was coming for Najee Harris’ No. 1 spot on the depth chart. Warren logged a promising 43% of snaps in Week 10, but then that number came crashing down to earth this past week when he was on the field for just 4% of snaps compared to Harris’ 92%. This number is influenced by Warren’s hamstring injury, but we also need to look at historical context here. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have always relied on one lead back. Always.

While it looked like Pittsburgh may have finally started trending away from that in recent weeks, the Warren injury will likely cause them to regress to old tendencies. Even though the injury is considered minor, for the first time in a while Harris looked fantastic last week. It’s hard to envision this coaching staff breaking old habits too firmly down the stretch, and this isn’t a powerful enough offense to support two fantasy-relevant RBs. Assuming his injury is in fact minor, Warren’s a premium handcuff to own down the stretch, but he’s unstartable as long as Harris is healthy.