Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The most important plays in any football game are the ones that result in a touchdown. For a player, finding the end zone can be the difference between their team winning and losing in the NFL which makes the thrill of hitting this type of betting prop so exhilarating. As we are in the final leg of the 2021 regular season, TD prop betting continues to be massive for sports bettors trying to find an edge in NFL betting.
If you’ve followed me on Twitter, you know I’ve been sharing my weekly NFL touchdown scorer picks for a few seasons. Now, you’ve arrived at FTNBets for the ultimate destination of my betting picks, tips and cheat sheets for TD prop bets to get the same edge I have each week for the entire 2021 season. If I’m betting on touchdown props for any NFL game, this is the place to find it so bookmark it ASAP.
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NFL Touchdown Scorer Bets – Latest Expert Picks
For each NFL primetime game and Sunday games, I’ll have touchdown scorer picks for every single one and you can find them in the latest video from FTNNetwork:
Wild Card Weekend Monday Night Football: TD Scorer Picks
Check out my picks for touchdown scorers in the Wild Card game between the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams:
Wild Card Weekend Sunday Football: TD Scorer Picks
Check out my picks for touchdown scorers in the Wild Card game between the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys:
Wild Card Weekend Saturday Football: TD Scorer Picks
Check out my picks for touchdown scorers in the Wild Card game between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills:
NFL Wild Card Weekend “Touchdown Town” with TD picks for each game
Here were my top picks for each NFL Wild Card game that I revealed on “Touchdown Town” on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET.
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Profits Tracker
One of the key ways to measure success when betting on NFL anytime touchdown scorers isn’t by winning percentage but profits. Even the best bettors regularly investing in TD prop markets hit at 30% but because the odds are so high compared to traditional sides and totals, you still can be profitable long term.
That’s why FTNBets has decided to track ALL the weekly profits for each NFL team’s skill players. Now, you can see for yourself if investing in a certain player each week has been profitable and it will also help give you a frame of reference for what odds you’re seeing and how it compares each week.
CLICK HERE FOR THE NEW ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER TOOL!
These odds are tracked from DraftKings and are finalized an hour before kickoff.
If you prefer to simply bet on sides and totals for NFL games, I also have my favorite weekly NFL picks that can be accessed in the FTNBets NFL Bet Tracker. If you’ve seen my work, you likely know I love to bet on underdogs so check out Dog of the Day too and see my favorite weekly underdog bet in the NFL.
How To Understand NFL Touchdown Scorer Odds
The time has come that you finally want to bet on some NFL props instead of sides and totals and you’ve decided on the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer props. This is a fun choice because NFL props are like games within the game that may or may not have a direct impact on the final outcome in the standings.
When you go to your sportsbook to look at NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds for a game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, for instance, the odds available to bet on might be presented like this:
- Lamar Jackson – Ravens -110
- JuJu Smith-Schuster – Steelers +150
- Mark Andrews – Ravens +250
Similar to a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the favorite to score a touchdown is the player with the lowest odds, which in this case is Lamar Jackson. Based on Jackson’s implied odds from sportsbooks, Jackson has a 52.4 percent chance to score a touchdown.
Let’s say you think Lamar Jackson will score a touchdown in this game. In order to make $100 in profit, you would need to bet $110. If you make that bet and Jackson scores, your $110 original bet is returned and you win $100 in profit.
On the flip side, part of the allure of NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer wagers is the big paydays you could receive for being right and picking a player who doesn’t score as often as Jackson does. In this case, you decide to bet on Mark Andrews with the Ravens at +250. If you bet $100 on Andrews and he finds the end zone in the game, you would get $350 returned to you. Your original $100 bet is refunded and the sportsbook would give you $250 in profit for your winning bet.
If you’re unsure about potential payouts for certain betting odds, try out FTNBets Parlay Calculator to do the math for you and show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.
Tips for Betting NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Whether this is your first season wanting to bet on NFL Anytime touchdown scorers or have been doing it for a few seasons, sometimes even a refresher can be warranted before we get in too deep. Here are a few of the tips I use to approach this exciting betting market:
Track Your Wins and Losses
Although it can be a humbling experience when betting NFL touchdown scorers, it can also be the most rewarding. The easiest way to find out how your faring is by tracking wins and losses along with overall profits. Some people can use a spreadsheet while others prefer the traditional pen and paper. Whichever way it is, develop a system so you can see your successes and failures and adapt.
If you go into an NFL season thinking you’ll win 50% of your TD prop bets, we may need to get your urine checked. so approach this more like a hitter in baseball compared to Shaquille O’Neal at the free-throw line.
Less Is More
I used to bet with someone that would wager on nearly every player to score a touchdown in a respective NFL game and it was frustrating because he would lose big and wonder what happened. It’s because he spread himself too thin and would bust his bankroll each week.
The key when betting on NFL TD props is not to fire on every single angle you see or can manifest in your head. Oddsmakers with sportsbooks have a lot of these factors baked into the odds already and while some of those angles will hit, a lot of them fall flat on their face. Try to limit yourself to 2-3 TD prop bets per game and have them at +200 odds or more. This way you can hit 30% or less on touchdown bets and not ruin your bankroll in the process
Research, Research, Research
This tip is meant for all sports betting but is crucial and essential to be profitable long term when betting on NFL touchdown scorers. There are lots of game-situational stats with sites like FTNData or FTNFantasy that carry the exact metrics you’ll need to be successful.
While the traditional statistics like targets and receptions are important for betting on a wide receiver to score a touchdown, bettors should also be considering other factors like cornerback matchups, red zone opportunities and market share of total passes. Those are just the tip of the iceberg of data you can access with FTNNetwork to take your anytime touchdown scorer betting to a whole new level.
