Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s good news/bad news time in NFL Survivor (or NFL Eliminator) contests. Byes are starting. That means this week, we have four fewer potential pitfalls, but also four fewer potential choices. More good news: After losses in each of the prior two weeks, we got back to the good in Week 4 with a correct Kansas City Chiefs selection.
So that leaves us at 2-2 through four weeks, which is a very bad result in a game where a single loss eliminated you but is defensible in a season where almost nothing has gone to plan. Let’s go through the process to identify our Week 5 selection.
NFL Survivor Picks for Week 5
We have four easy eliminations — the teams on bye:
Detroit Lions
Los Angeles Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles
Tennessee Titans
Yay! I can’t get that part wrong!
They’re Too Bad
Next, our old standard: The teams that are too bad. The teams that, barring a dramatic change, will only be under consideration in this exercise if I am out of other choices.
Carolina Panthers (@ Chicago)
Cleveland Browns (@ Washington)
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Indianapolis)
Las Vegas Raiders (@ Denver)
Miami Dolphins (@ New England)
New England Patriots (vs. Miami)
New York Giants (@ Seattle)
Please don’t even watch Miami/New England. Dolphins fans won’t enjoy it. Patriots fans won’t enjoy it. Masochists might, but that’s about it. Just let that game exist in the ether.
Bit-by-Bit
I don’t feel comfortable eliminated teams in broad swaths from here, so I’m going to go through teams I’m eliminating for simple reasons before we get to the ones we have to really think about.
Arizona Cardinals (@ San Francisco)
Do I think the Cardinals will score on their opening drive? Yes. Do I think they’ll keep that up against a getting-healthier-all-the-time 49ers team? No.
Atlanta Falcons (vs. Tampa Bay)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ Atlanta)
Minnesota Vikings (vs. NY Jets in London)
New York Jets (vs. Minnesota in London)
I would have to feel extremely strongly about a matchup to take a Thursday game or a London game. Just too much weirdness.
Buffalo Bills (@ Houston)
The Bills are better than they looked against Baltimore, but they probably aren’t as good as they looked in Weeks 1-3. Against what is supposed to be a good Texans team, I need more.
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Baltimore)
Congratulations on getting off the schneid, Bengals, but that’s not enough to take you against this Ravens team.
Dallas Cowboys (@ Pittsburgh)
Dallas has two defensive players we really care about, and they’re both out? No thank you.
Denver Broncos (vs. Las Vegas)
Either the Broncos or the Raiders will be 3-2 after this week (assuming no tie), which is wild, but I just can’t bank on a struggling rookie who just threw for 60 yards in a game.
Houston Texans (vs. Buffalo)
The Texans are 3-1 with a -15 point differential, which (a) feels impossible, and (b) might be revealing. They have wins by 2, 6 and 4 and a loss by 27. With the Bills seeking a bounceback, that’s concerning.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. New Orleans)
Eventually, this whole “pull games out by the skin of our teeth and watch all our players get hurt” strategy is going to catch up with the Chiefs. It might not be Monday, but they’re so picked over that I’m not betting on them.
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Green Bay)
The Rams are so beleaguered by injuries at the same time that Jordan Love is getting healthy. Bad mix.
New Orleans Saints (@ Kansas City)
The Saints looked amazing in Weeks 1-2 and then very pedestrian in Weeks 3-4. And while I’m sure the Chiefs’ shenanigans are going to catch up to them, I’m not betting that way, either.
Washington Commanders (vs. Cleveland)
Things can’t continue this swimmingly for Jayden Daniels, and while the Browns have been disappointing, there’s still plenty of skill on this defense. If the Commanders keep it rolling, well, we’ll still have them for later.
The Contenders
That leaves us with seven teams:
Baltimore Ravens (@ Cincinnati)
Chicago Bears (vs. Carolina)
Green Bay Packers (@ LA Rams)
Indianapolis Colts (@ Jacksonville)
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Dallas)
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona)
Seattle Seahawks (vs. NY Giants)
Here we go with the pros and cons!
Baltimore Ravens (@ Cincinnati)
Pros: The Ravens looked truly dominant against the Bills Sunday night. Like, nobody-could-beat-them dominant. Derrick Henry could run for 300 yards against this Bengals D.
Cons: That Bills game is really papering over memories of the Ravens starting 0-2, having no passing attack to speak of, and letting earlier offenses do better against them than you’d like, all while the Bengals are rounding into form.
Chicago Bears (vs. Carolina)
Pros: The Panthers are better with Andy Dalton, but that was a super low bar to clear.
Cons: The next dominant Bears game will be the first. In, like, more than a year.
Green Bay Packers (@ LA Rams)
Pros: Jordan Love is back and, Christian Watson aside, the Packers are getting very healthy. Meanwhile, the Rams have their own special wing of local hospitals.
Cons: This isn’t a true con, more of a curiosity, but: The Packers haven’t beaten the Rams in Los Angeles since 1966.
Indianapolis Colts (@ Jacksonville)
Pros: The Jaguars are proving to be impressively terrible.
Cons: You’re banking your season either on Joe Flacco or a hobbled Anthony Richardson, and you might not even have Jonathan Taylor
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Dallas)
Pros: The Steelers have an excellent defense against a Cowboys team with one real weapon.
Cons: The Cowboys are down a lot of defensive firepower, but you can never totally eliminate the possibility of a Justin Fields blow-up.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona)
Pros: Biggest spread of the weekend at 7.5 points, one of only two spreads of more than 4.5 points.
Cons: The 49ers lost to the Rams 27-24 right after the Rams lost to the Cardinals 41-10. Transitive property isn’t a real thing with football teams, but it is scary.
Seattle Seahawks (vs. NY Giants)
Pros: You know how I said the 49ers/Cardinals game was one of two with a spread of more than 4.5? This is the other, at 6 points.
Cons: Go check out the Seahawks injury report sometime. Marvel at all the defensive names that show up on there.
The Pick
Each week, you’ll get my No. 1 selection and some honorable mentions. We’re heading into the part of the season where my top pick will be a team I have already used (though not this week), and I’ll note that for those who like my advice now but didn’t at some point. They’re weird, but they count.
Seattle Seahawks (vs. NY Giants)
The Seahawks have the best off-a-loss vibes you’ve ever seen. Sure, the Lions beat them, but everyone feels good about the team at 3-1. Meanwhile, the Giants might not even have Malik Nabers as he works his way back from last Thursday’s concussion.
Honorable Mention
Green Bay Packers (@ LA Rams)
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona)
2024 Record: 2-2
Week 1: Bills (W)
Week 2: Ravens (L)
Week 3: Browns (L)
Week 4: Chiefs (W)
Week 5: Seahawks
