Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
In my defense after last year’s crash-and-burn selection of the Indianapolis Colts as my Week 17 NFL Survivor/NFL Eliminator pick, the Christmas holiday meant I had to have my article written (and thus selection made) by Tuesday, meaning I had no inkling the Colts would be without Anthony Richardson for the game.
In my prosecution, I’m relatively sure I’d have taken the Colts anyway.
So it’s one heck of an anticlimax as we cap off the 2024 NFL season of Survivor picks with one last selection that came right after I ended an 11-week hot streak. But let’s try to end it on the most positive note we can.
This is my NFL Survivor pick for Week 18. As always, I’m starting with all 32 teams and eliminating them bit by bit until I get to my final few contenders and, ultimately, my choice of the week.
NFL Survivor Picks for Week 18
I’m eschewing my normal format for this piece, both because there aren’t Thursday games or any weird scheduling this week and because the motivations are so squirrelly that even bad teams might have a chance at beating good teams that have no reason to try.
So instead, let’s look at who I have available and who I might be able to pick based on motivation. Normally I write this pick-agnostically — you might have tailed me and might not have, and so I try to consider even teams I have already chosen up until my final selection. But with more than half the team off my (and most people’s) list, this week I’m only considering those I have left.
Already Selected
Arizona Cardinals (Week 15, W)
Baltimore Ravens (Week 2, L)
Buffalo Bills (Week 1, W)
Cincinnati Bengals (Week 7, W)
Cleveland Browns (Week 3, L)
Denver Broncos (Week 8, W)
Detroit Lions (Week 16, W)
Green Bay Packers (Week 11, W)
Houston Texans (Week 6, W)
Indianapolis Colts (Week 17, L)
Kansas City Chiefs (Week 4, W)
Los Angeles Chargers (Week 10, W)
Minnesota Vikings (Week 9, W)
Philadelphia Eagles (Week 14, W)
Seattle Seahawks (Week 5, L)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 12, W)
Washington Commanders (Week 13, W)
That’s 17 teams gone and 15 to go.
The Remaining Teams
Here’s who I have available to me in Week 18:
Atlanta Falcons (vs. Carolina)
Carolina Panthers (@ Atlanta)
Chicago Bears (@ Green Bay)
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Washington)
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Indianapolis)
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. LA Chargers)
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Seattle)
Miami Dolphins (@ NY Jets)
New England Patriots (vs. Buffalo)
New Orleans Saints (@ Tampa Bay)
New York Giants (@ Philadelphia)
New York Jets (vs. Miami)
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati)
San Francisco 49ers (@ Arizona)
Tennessee Titans (vs. Houston)
Let’s take them one at a time through their motivation to see who warrants consideration:
Atlanta Falcons (vs. Carolina)
The Falcons need a win and a Buccaneers loss to claim the NFC South. The Panthers have nothing to play for.
Verdict: Possibility!
Carolina Panthers (@ Atlanta)
Well, if the Falcons are a possibility, it seems silly to also consider the Panthers.
Verdict: Nope
Chicago Bears (@ Green Bay)
Even if the Packers had nothing to play for, this is a Packers-Bears game in Green Bay. And of course, the Packers can still help themselves from a seeding perspective.
Verdict: LOL, imagine picking the Bears
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Washington)
Dallas is out of good offensive players, while Washington can still be either the 6 or 7 seed in the NFC.
Verdict: I’m out like CeeDee Lamb
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Indianapolis)
The Colts apparently gave up even before they were eliminated from the playoff hunt, but still these are the Jags.
Verdict: Under more consideration than I’m proud of, but probably not
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. LA Chargers)
The Chargers might be locked into the 6 seed before Sunday, but Jim Harbaugh certainly sounds like a coach who is going to try regardless. Also, the Raiders are bad.
Verdict: No thank you
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Seattle)
The Rams can still climb to the 3 seed (and a Packers or Commanders game) instead of the 4 seed (and a date against the Vikings or Lions), but they sound like a team ready for a rest week, with Jimmy Garoppolo already announced to start.
Verdict: Too risky
Miami Dolphins (@ NY Jets)
The Dolphins need a win and a loss by the plays-at-the-same-time Broncos to squeak into the playoffs (likely without Tua Tagovailoa). The Jets need an exorcism.
Verdict: On the table
New England Patriots (vs. Buffalo)
The Bills have nothing to play for and are actually incentivized to lose to keep the Patriots from the first overall draft pick. Of course, the Pats are incentivized to get that pick.
Verdict: They might both lose
New Orleans Saints (@ Tampa Bay)
The Buccaneers are win-and-in. The Saints are out of players.
Verdict: Hard-core no
New York Giants (@ Philadelphia)
The Eagles have nothing to play for, while the Giants are on a one-game winning streak. Also, though, they’re the Giants.
Verdict: No way
New York Jets (vs. Miami)
Imagine picking the Jets to do anything good.
Verdict: Why are you asking this
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati)
It’s wild that it’s Week 18 and I’ve not picked a team that might be the AFC 3 seed. It’s even wilder that, with the Bengals going all out to try to save their playoff lives, I’m still not even considering it.
Verdict: This is the best team that will definitely go unpicked (by me) this year
San Francisco 49ers (@ Arizona)
Neither team has anything to play for. And the 49ers might be rolling with their QB2 or QB3.
Verdict: Imagine telling someone in the preseason I’d not only never pick the 49ers, I’d never even seriously consider them
Tennessee Titans (vs. Houston)
I think the Titans might genuinely win this game, given the Texans are locked into the 4 seed. I also think there’s no way in the world I’d pick these Tennessee Titans to win a football game, so that first sentence is moot.
Verdict: Off the table
The Contenders
That leaves us with three options:
Atlanta Falcons (vs. Carolina)
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Indianapolis)
Miami Dolphins (@ NY Jets)
Of the opponents here, the Panthers are probably the most motivated — they want to go into the offseason on a high note and see a bit more from Bryce Young. The Colts haven’t said whether Anthony Richardson will play, but it’s hard to see a reason to bring back a banged-up quarterback for a meaningless game. And the Jets … are the Jets.
The problem for the two playoff contenders here (the Falcons and Dolphins) is that their competition for a playoff spot plays (logically, good job NFL) at the same time, so if the Buccaneers and/or Broncos jump out to huge early leads, the Falcons and/or Dolphins might just pack it in as their motivation disintegrates. And of course, they Buccaneers are 13.5-point favorites while the Broncos are 10-point faves.
And all of that before considering that the Dolphins aren’t even guaranteed to have their starting quarterback!
This is hard! Finding the right mix of “available to be picked,” “actually motivated” and “worth picking” is a tough needle to thread. But we have to make our last pick of the year…
The Pick
Each week, you’ll get my No. 1 selection and some honorable mentions.
Miami Dolphins (@ NY Jets)
Do I love it? No. Especially with sub-freezing temperatures expected at the game. But the Jets have all the markings of a team that might have quit. The Dolphins will have plenty of motivation, even if Tyler Huntley is the quarterback. And while the Chiefs are not going to press their key players, that’s still one of the best teams, one that has a shot at keeping a division rival out of the playoffs. If one of the Chiefs or Saints beats the Broncos or Bucs (or at least keeps it close), I’d bet on Kansas City.
Honorable Mention
Atlanta Falcons (vs. Carolina)
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Indianapolis)
2024 Record: 13-4
Week 1: Bills (W)
Week 2: Ravens (L)
Week 3: Browns (L)
Week 4: Chiefs (W)
Week 5: Seahawks (L)
Week 6: Texans (W)
Week 7: Bengals (W)
Week 8: Broncos (W)
Week 9: Vikings (W)
Week 10: Chargers (W)
Week 11: Packers (W)
Week 12: Buccaneers (W)
Week 13: Commanders (W)
Week 14: Eagles (W)
Week 15: Cardinals (W)
Week 16: Lions (W)
Week 17: Colts (L)
Week 18: Dolphins
