Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to evaluate different teams, monitoring some of the most critical situations around the league.
The Splits Tool is a great way to evaluate the impact of different situations and environmental factors by comparing and contrasting historical data based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching changes, current and former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.
The Chiefs enter Week 8 as the last remaining undefeated team with their eyes set on a three-peat. They’ve been plagued by injuries since the offseason but have continued to overcome adversity and have found ways to win. With an already depleted wide receiver room, Kansas City traded for DeAndre Hopkins earlier this week, gearing up for another Super Bowl run. Hopkins is well beyond his prime, but even a competent pass-catcher could be detrimental to Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy’s rest-of-season outlook. They’re the only two players to run a route on over 50% of Patrick Mahomes’s dropbacks thus far, and although their usage has been significantly better without Rashee Rice, their production has lacked consistency.
Travis Kelce, TE
After a dominant playoff run, Travis Kelce was merely an afterthought to begin the season, seeing just a 12.5% target share through the first three weeks. He was held to less than 35 yards in every game. However, once Rashee Rice went down, Kelce immediately vaulted back into the No. 1 option and caught seven-plus passes on nine-plus targets for 70-plus yards in back-to-back weeks. Since Week 4, Kelce has a team-high 26% target share and is also averaging 6.7 receptions on eight targets and 63.7 receiving yards over the last three games.
Xavier Worthy, WR
Xavier Worthy hit the ground running in his debut with 47 yards through the air, 27 on the ground and two total touchdowns on three touches. His next two games weren’t nearly as impactful, though. He totaled 52 combined rushing and receiving yards in Week 2-3 and scored less than five PPR points in both outings. Since Rashee Rice went down, Worthy has been much more involved in the offense and has run a route on nearly 80% of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks (79.5%) over the last three games. But his volume has been discouraging with just a 13.7% target share during that span.
