NFL Splits Tool, Week 6: Geno Smith at the Helm in Seattle

After seven-plus months of preparation and analysis, the NFL season is in full swing as we head into Week 6 of the regular season. Over the offseason, I did an “NFL Splits” series, looking at historical trends to help predict the outlook of the 2022 season. I will be continuing the series during the season by using the FTN Splits Tool and looking at actionable takeaways from the previous weeks.

The Splits Tool allows me to experiment with different situations, such as active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more, to get a better understanding of the rest of the season. Users can sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription and gain access to all the tools needed to dominate their fantasy leagues.

Let Geno Cook!

Geno Smith was written off eight seasons into his NFL career, but he didn’t write back. After experiencing their first losing season in the past decade, the Seahawks traded away Russell Wilson to the Broncos, leaving an open competition at quarterback. Smith has been with Seattle since 2020, but this was his first opportunity to compete for a full-time starting job. He made three spot starts for Wilson last season, who was dealing with a finger injury and went 1-3 as a starter. Smith beat out former Broncos quarterback Drew Lock in training camp and was named the Week 1 starter. After five weeks into the 2022 season, Smith has held his own, leading the league in passer rating (113.2). The Seahawks have been one of the most fantasy-friendliest offenses, led by Smith as the QB7 and two top-20 wide receivers in Tyler Lockett (WR8) and DK Metcalf (WR18). In this article, I am going to look at how the passing offense in Seattle has changed over the past two seasons with Smith vs. Wilson under center. Unfortunately, Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny suffered a season-ending fibula fracture last week and has been ruled out for the rest of the season. This opens the door for 2022 second-round pick Kenneth Walker to take over the starting job, who has borderline RB1 to RB2 potential.

If you need to replace Penny and Walker is unavailable, be sure to check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s “Week 6 Waiver Wire Pickups and FAAB Rankings for Week 6.”

Seahawks Offense

For years, fantasy managers have been clamoring for Seattle to “Let Russ cook,” but a change at quarterback may have been all that was needed to open the passing game. The Seahawks are averaging almost the exact same number of pass attempts per game with both quarterbacks but over 10 more passing yards (10.87) with Smith. Smith has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks this season, completing a league-high 75.2% of his passes. It’s the fifth-highest completion percentage by a quarterback through Week 5 over the last 75 years. They are also scoring more often with Smith at the helm and have the seventh highest-scoring offense. 

DK Metcalf, WR

After an offseason “hold in” regarding a new contract, Seahawks’ 2019 second-round pick DK Metcalf signed a three-year, $72 million extension to remain in Seattle through 2025. Since entering the league, Metcalf has posted three straight seasons over 900 yards and scored double-digit touchdowns in the last two. However, Metcalf’s receiving production has improved remarkably in the seven games Geno Smith has started. Despite seeing slightly fewer targets, he’s averaging more receptions, touchdowns and over 22 receiving yards per game. Through five games this season, Metcalf is averaging 5.6 catches per game and is on pace to set a career-high in receptions (95.2). 

Tyler Lockett, WR 

Tyler Lockett is viewed as a boom/bust player but has actually been one of the most consistent wide receivers in the league. Since taking over the starting job in 2018, he’s finished as the WR15 or better in four consecutive seasons. He was the WR13 in 2021 with Wilson and Smith, finishing top-10 in receiving yards (1,175) and second in receiving yards on passes thrown at least 15 yards downfield. Lockett has been one of the league’s best deep threats and has been even better with Smith. Smith currently leads the league in completion percentage on passes thrown 15 or more yards downfield (65.5%), and Lockett has been the primary beneficiary. Aside from a slight downtick in receiving touchdowns, his usage and production have been much better across the board in the seven games Smith has started. However, after failing to find the endzone in the first four weeks of the 2022 season, Lockett scored twice in Week 5. He’s currently top-10 in receiving yards (406) and is on pace to set a career-high in receiving yards (1,380.4) and receptions (108.8). Lockett is one of just three wide receivers to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in three consecutive seasons and is in line to do so again.