NFL Splits Tool, Week 6: AOC in LV

Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to evaluate different teams, monitoring some of the most critical situations around the league.

The Splits Tool is a great way to evaluate the impact of different situations and environmental factors by comparing and contrasting historical data based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching changes, current and former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.

The End of Minshew Mania

The vibes in Las Vegas haven’t been great coming off a 34-13 blowout loss to the Broncos. The team is ready to make a change under center. After throwing his second interception on the day, Gardner Minshew II was benched mid-game and replaced by the second-year quarterback Aidan O’Connell. O’Connell didn’t look great, completing just 50% of his dropbacks for 92 yards and an interception, but he has been named the starter for Week 6. Change isn’t always a good thing, but the offense can’t get much worse, currently ranked 28th in DVOA (-17.4%) as a unit. They’ve been a lot more conversative without Davante Adams the last two weeks, with both Raiders’ quarterbacks combining for an average of 180.5 passing yards on 30.5 dropbacks during that span. In Weeks 1-3, Minshew was attempting 37 passes per game and averaging 276.3 yards through the air. Still even with the lower passing volume, the absence of Adams has created more opportunities for the rest of the pass catchers, which could stick for the rest of the season.

Jakobi Meyers, WR

Jakobi Meyers has taken over as the No. 1 in Las Vegas without Davante Adams the last two weeks, leading the team with a 28.8% target share, averaging 5.5 receptions on 9.5 targets and 60.5 receiving yards per game. He’s had a steady floor, catching five balls on nine-plus targets in three consecutive games, including Week 3 with Adams available.

Tre Tucker, WR

Tre Tucker’s production has been up and down without Davante Adams, averaging less than 30 receiving yards over the last two games. Still, he’s worked his way into a full-time role, joining Jakobi Meyers as the only other player to run a route on 85% of the team’s dropbacks (93.9%). He was quiet against Denver, who have shut down opposing wide receivers all season, but he could have flex value if Adams is moved.

Brock Bowers, TE

On the surface, Brock Bowers’ usage doesn’t look much different with and without Davante Adams, but a lot of that can be attributed to wonky gamescript in Week 4, where he saw a season-low three targets, catching just two passes for 19 yards. Perhaps Michael Mayer being out factored in, but Bowers was much more involved the following week, catching eight passes on a season-high 12 targets for 97 yards and scoring his first career touchdown. With or without Adams, Bowers is a strong candidate to finish as the TE1 overall, currently leading the position in targets (36), receptions (28) and receiving yards (313).