NFL Splits Tool, Week 4: Zach Wilson’s Return in New York

After seven-plus months of preparation and analysis, the NFL season is in full swing, as we head into Week 4 of the regular season. Over the offseason, I did an “NFL Splits” series, looking at historical trends to help predict the outlook of the 2022 season. I will be continuing the series during the season by using the FTN Splits Tool and looking at actionable takeaways from the previous weeks.

The splits tool allows me to experiment with different situations, such as active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more, to get a better understanding of the rest of the season. Users can sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription and gain access to all the tools needed to dominate their fantasy leagues.

The Return of Zach Wilson

Jets second-year quarterback Zach Wilson is set to make his 2022 debut against the Steelers Sunday after sitting out the first three games. Wilson is returning from an offseason knee injury after tearing his meniscus in Week 1 of the preseason. He underwent arthroscopic surgery Aug. 16 to repair the same knee he sprained last season, which caused him to miss four games in 2021. However, Wilson has made a full recovery and has no intention of altering his playing style to protect his knee. “I’m full go. I’m going to play ball how I can,” Wilson told reporters after his first full practice in seven weeks. “If somebody comes up, [I’ll] make somebody miss, get out on the edge, extend plays when I need to, hang in the pocket. I’m playing exactly how I should be.” Since Wilson was drafted, the Jets have played 13 out of 20 games (65%) without Wilson in the lineup. In this article, I am going to examine the state of the Jets’ offense with and without Wilson under center over the past two seasons.

Check out where the Jets players rank heading into Week 4 by using the FTN Rankings.

Jets Offense

In 2021, the Jets posted their sixth consecutive losing season, winning just four of 17 games. They went 0-6 in the AFC East for the second straight year, marking the longest divisional losing streak (12) by any AFC East team since realignment in 2002. Despite inaugurating a new front office and bringing in a plethora of talent, the offense was miserable. They averaged 306.4 yards per game (26th), 18.2 points per game (28th), and had the second worst point differential (-194, 31st). During the offseason, head coach Robert Saleh expressed his desire for a more balanced offensive scheme after finishing bottom of the league in rush attempts last season (380).

Through the first three weeks of the season, this has not been the case. The Jets are 30th in rush attempts (57) and are one of just three teams averaging 19 or fewer rush attempts per game. Joe Flacco has started all three games, leading the NFL in pass attempts (155) and is fifth in passing yards (901). Although the Jets’ offense averages fewer rush attempts and yards without Wilson, they have been much better through the air without him. With a combination of Flacco, Mike White, and Joe Johnson under center, the Jets average 10-plus more pass attempts (10.57) and over 90 passing yards per game (91.35). Once Wilson returns to on-field action, the Jets may look to lean heavier on the ground game.

Elijah Moore, WR 

Jets 2021 second-round WR Elijah Moore had high expectations entering his second season. Moore got off to a slow start as a rookie, catching 15 passes on 32 targets and 146 receiving yards over his first six games. Following the Jets’ Week 6 bye, however, Moore became much more involved in the offense and had some of his biggest games in the four-game stretch without Wilson. In the games Wilson missed, Moore’s receiving production increased across the board, and he was a WR1 in fantasy. He played in one game with Flacco as the starter in 2021 and caught eight passes for 141 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, the same success has not translated into 2022, as Moore is currently fourth on the team in receiving yards. Although Moore has been historically better without Wilson, most of his production came in 2021 without the addition of first-round rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson. On the positive side, Moore leads the league in routes run (152) and may benefit from an already established repour with Wilson.

Corey Davis, WR

2017 fifth overall pick Corey Davis experienced a fourth-year breakout in his final season with the Tennessee Titans in 2020. In 14 games, he caught 65 of his 92 targets for 984 yards and 5 touchdowns. After a career season, Davis signed with the Jets last season on a three-year, $37.5 million contract. Davis only appeared in nine games and landed on injured reserve with a groin injury. However, he recorded three games with over 90 receiving yards in his brief stint, which all came with Wilson under center. Davis has averaged more targets and receptions with Wilson as the starter but 11 fewer receiving yards. Like Moore, Davis has suffered from Garrett Wilson‘s presence but is second on the team in receiving yards (187). 

Michael Carter, RB

Michael Carter had a promising rookie campaign, racking up 964 yards from scrimmage on 183 touches and four touchdowns. After a slow start to begin his career, Carter was the RB13 in Weeks 4-10, averaging over 89 yards from scrimmage. Unfortunately, his hot streak ended after an ankle injury in Week 11 kept him out for the next three games. In 10 career games without Wilson, Carter averages more than two and half more targets (+2.51) and over 21 receiving yards per game (+21.06). Although he sees fewer rush attempts, he averages almost nine more rushing yards (+8.9). Despite the Jets’ bringing in second running back Breece Hall in the offseason, Carter has maintained his starting role in the offense. Week 3 was a sign of caution for Carter as it was the first time he was outsnapped by Hall on the season. With Hall carving out a more significant role and the return of Wilson, Carter’s fantasy stock is headed toward a downward trajectory.