NFL Splits Tool, Week 17: Rudolph Guiding the Sleigh

Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to evaluate different teams, monitoring some of the most critical situations around the league.

The Splits Tool is a great way to evaluate the impact of different situations and environmental factors by comparing and contrasting historical data based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching changes, current and former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.

Mason Rudolph In, Will Levis Out

The Titans have seemingly moved on from Will Levis, already announcing Mason Rudolph as the starter for a second consecutive week. Although the offense has still had its flaws with Rudolph under center, specifically in the turnover department, it’s been a lot more functional and capable of sustaining drives. As a result, the primary pass catchers in Tennessee have seen a significant boost in production across the board and are set up well for the fantasy championship in the premier matchup, facing a Jaguars defense ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass (36.3%), allowing a league 274.9 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Calvin Ridley, WR

Calvin Ridley had been quiet for a month. He was held below 60 receiving yards and scored zero touchdowns in each game in Weeks 13-15, finishing no higher than the WR34. Although the volume wasn’t great, Ridley finally put together a usable week with Mason Rudolph back in the starting lineup in Week 16, catching three balls on five targets for 78 yards and a touchdown, leading the Titans with a 49.3% air yard share. Through five games with Rudolph as the starter or playing over 80% of offensive snaps, Ridley is averaging 4.4 receptions on eight targets for 66.6 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.

Chig Okonkwo, TE

Chig Okonkwo has been phenomenal over the last two weeks, catching 8-plus balls on double-digit targets in back-to-back games, and finishing as a top-seven tight end in both outings. He saw his best usage of the season last week, running a route on 85.7% of Mason Rudolph’s dropbacks and catching eight passes on 11 targets for 81 yards, leading the Titans with a 31.4% target share. It was his first time playing at least 80% of the offensive snaps and although he hasn’t been a full-time player up to this point, his production has been significantly better in the five games Will Levis has either missed or attempted fewer than five passes, averaging 3.8 receptions on 5.4 targets for 37.6 yards.